1regional policy responses to demographic challenges, bruxelles, 25-26 january 2007 eurostat...

1Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

EUROSTAT regional population projections

Giampaolo LANZIERIEurostat Unit F-1: Demographic and Migration Statistics

2Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Some basic concepts

• The changes in population can be ascribed to live births, deaths and migration.

• The difference between live births and deaths is the natural change.

• At regional level, migration can be split in international and interregional (net) migration.

P(t) + B(t) – D(t) + INM(t) + IRM(t) = P(t+1)

3Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

A glance at the recent past…

4Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

5Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

6Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

7Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Recent demographic trends

• There is a clear divide in terms of population growth: in the regions of North-east of the EU the population is decreasing.

• Basically, this is due to a negative natural change.

• In some of these regions, emigration has further contributed to the population decline.

• On the opposite, in some Central and Southern European regions, immigration has compensated the natural decline.

8Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

What about the age structure?

• Basic indicators:– Proportion of defined age classes on the total

population. Ex.: (65+ years old)/(total population)– Old age dependency ratio:

(65+ years old)/(15-64 years old)– Young age dependency ratio:

(0-14 years old)/(15-64 years old)

9Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Dependency ratios

10Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…and a look at the future…

11Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Caveat

• The EUROSTAT population projections are not forecasts.

• They show possible demographic developments based upon assumptions on fertility, mortality and migration (what-if scenario).

• The Eurostat scenario is relying mainly on observed trends.

12Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

EUROPOP2004• In 2005, Eurostat has released population

projections at national level covering the EU27 Member States.

• In 2006, the regional detail until 2031 has been added for those countries that provided the necessary data: in total, 17 out of 19 Member States with NUTS2 level, making 197 regions.

• The regional projections are consistent with the projections at national level.

13Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

EU population is likely to decline...Observed and projected total EU27 population by variant

400

420

440

460

480

500

520

540

560

580

Mill

ion

s

Time limit for regional projections

Observationperiod

Projectionsperiod

14Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…like in most of the EU regions...Number of declining regions

- Baseline variant of EUROPOP2004 regional level -

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030

Moving base (previous year) Fixed base (2004)

15Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

16Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level

- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

EU27

17Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level

- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

EU27 Min national level Max national level

18Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…but it is certain to age…Projected proportion of population aged 65 years and over at EU, national and regional level

- Baseline variants of EUROPOP2004 -

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

EU27 Min national level Max national level Min regional level Max regional level

19Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

…to differing degrees

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%

SE

FI

SK

RO

PT

PL

AT

NL

HU

IT

ES

GR

IE

DE

CZ

BG

BE

20Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Shares of population aged 65+

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Shares of population aged 0-14

22Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Old age dependency ratios

23Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

The drivers of change

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The drivers of change

25Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

The drivers of change

decline due onlyto net migration

decline due moreto net migration

decline due moreto natural change

decline due onlyto natural change

growth due onlyto net migration

growth due moreto natural change

growth due moreto net migration

growth due onlyto natural change

26Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

27Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Growing and declining

decline due onlyto net migration

decline due moreto net migration

decline due moreto natural change

decline due onlyto natural change

growth due onlyto net migration

growth due moreto natural change

growth due moreto net migration

growth due onlyto natural change

28Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Main messages• According to the results of this set of

regional projections (Trend scenario):– Nearly half of the EU regions are likely to

have a population size in 2031 smaller than in 2004; more than 2/3 could have started a descending trend

– All are expected to age– The ageing will take place to differing

degrees and timing across EU regions– Migration is projected to be the main driver of

the regional population growth

29Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Further reading and data• Statistics in Focus nn/2007 ”Long-term population

projections at regional level” (pre-print available)• Statistics in Focus 3/2006 ”Long-term population

projections at national level”• “Regions: Statistical yearbook”, 2006 edition• “Population Statistics”, 2006 edition• Statistics in Focus 16/2006 ”Population in Europe

2005: first results”• Eurostat Working Papers and Studies

“Demographic Outlook – National reports on the demographic developments in 2005”

• Eurostat web site: http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu

30Regional policy responses to demographic challenges, Bruxelles, 25-26 January 2007

Thanks for

your attention

For any further information please contact: giampaolo.lanzieri@ec.europa.eu