2 ars mikro ekonomi migas
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ANALISIS HARGAMINYAK GASARSEGIANTO
Institut Teknologi BandungProgram Studi Teknik Perminyakan
2012
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BUKU ACUAN
Jack Hirshleifer
Price Theory and Application
Prentice Hall, Inc.
Englewood Cliffs, New Jersey
1987
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YANG AKAN DIBAHAS
A. TERBENTUKNYA HARGA
B. ANALISIS SUPLAI
C. ANALISIS DEMAN
D. PAJAK DAN SUBSIDI
E. KEGAGALAN PASAR
F. KEBIJAKAN HARGA PADA MONOPOLI YANG DIATUR
G. EKONOMI SUMBERDAYA TIDAK TERBARUKAN
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TERBENTUKNYA HARGA
Pada sistem pasar, harga (P) terbentuk oleh perpotongankurva penawaran dan kurva permintaan. Output atauvolume transaksi ada di X.
P
0 X
Permintaan
Penawaran
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ANALISIS PENAWARAN
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Fungsi Produksi
X1
X2
YINDUSTRY k
Y = y(X1 , X2)
Cobb-Douglas: Y = A KLD
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X1
X2
Y = 5
0
Y = 8
4
10
2 8
Output Y=5 dihasilkan dari kombinasiinput (X1=2 dan X2=10) atau kombinasi
input (X1=8 dan X2=4)
Pada kombinasi input (X1=8 dan X2=4), input X1 tetap 8,
sementara X2 dinaikkan menjadi 10. Output bertambah
menjadi 8; kedua input saling mensubstitusi.
Kurva Isoquant
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X1
X2
Y*
0
Y**
Y* < Y**
Input X1 dan X2 sama sekali
tidak dapat saling substitusi
X2
X1
Y*
Y**
Substitusi antar Input
Input X1 dan X2 saling substitusi
secara sempurna
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X1
X2
0
l
Budget Line
Budget line (l) menunjukkan kombinasi input yang dapat
diperoleh dari budget yang tersedia. Sudut budget linemerepresentasikan perbandingan harga input.
1
2
2
1
2
Harga input X2 tetap, hargaX1
naik, jumlahX1 berkurang, budget
line bergeser mendekati 0
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X
$
0
FC
C = FC + VC VC
Total Cost (C) = Fixed Cost (FC) + Variable Cost (VC)
Fungsi Biaya
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AVERAGE COST (AC) DAN MARGINAL COST (MC)
X
C
0
C = f(X)
MC
AC
Average Cost, AC = C/X
Marginal Cost, MC = dC/dX
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AC minimum pada MC = AC
Diseconomies of scale
Economies of scale di daerah di mana d(AC)/dx < 0
Diseconomies of scale di daerah di mana d(AC)/dx >0
0 X
C
0 X
MC
AC
Economies of scale
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Ilustrasi (1)
Cost function suatu sumur minyak ditunjukkan olehpersamaam berikutC = 0,5y2 + 6y + 10.
Berapa fixed cost, total cost, marginal cost, dan
average cost pada y = 10 ?Solusi: Fixed cost = 10
MC = y + 6
AC = 0,5y + 6 + 10/y
Pada y = 10,
C = 0,5 x 102 + 6 x 10 + 10 = 120
MC = 10 + 6 = 16
AC = 0,5 x 10 + 6 + 10/10 = 1214
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Optimisasi Produsen
MCMR
dx
dC
dx
dR
dx
d
dx
dC
dx
dR
dx
d
CR
=
=
=
=
=
atau
:sehingga
0keadaanpadaMaximum
Profit maximizing producer will produce at theoptimum output, where MC = MR.
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Sistem Pasar
Sistem pasar terbentuk terdapat banyak produsen danbanyak konsumen saling bersaing dalam melakukantransaksi Tiap individu produsen memiliki pangsakecil sehingga tidak dapat mempengaruhi harga pasar
Rp
C
0 X
C > R
R
C > R
R > C
P
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Optimasi Produsen di Sistem Pasar
dx
dPxP
dx
Pxd
dx
dRMR
PxR
+===
=
)(
Pada sistem pasar, P f(x)
MC = MR = P
Produsen adalah price taker. Secara individu ia tidakdapat mempengaruhi harga. Produsen merespons hargadengan mengatur output sedemikian sehingga MC = P
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Respons Produsen Terhadap Perubahan Harga
0 X1 X2 X3
MC
Sebagai price taker, produsen merespon terhadapperubahan harga. Harga meningkat akan membuatprodusen meningkatkan outputnya, dan sebaliknya.
P3
P2
P1
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Suplai Industri di Sistem Pasar
0 X1
Kurva suplai
MC = MC1
+MC2
MC1MC2
Kurva suplai industri adalah kompositdari semua establishments di industri.
P
X2 X1+X2
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ANALISIS PERMINTAAN
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TEORI UTILITI
0
For fixed increment of x,additional Ui is diminishing :
U1 > U2 >U3
U
x x x x
U3
U2
U1
U = f(X)
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Fungsi Utilit i Untuk 2 komodit i X1 dan X2
0
U
X1, X2
U = f(X1,0)
U = f(0,X2)
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Kurva Iso-Utiliti
Sepanjang kurva, kombinasi X1 dan X2 memberikantingkat utiliti yang sama.
Bentuk kurve ini konvex ke pusat. Mengapa?
0
x1
x2
U = f(X1,X2)
5
8
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y = IncomeP1, P2 = price of commodities 1 and 2
x1, x2 = volume of commodities 1 dan 2
0
U1 < U2 < U3
x1
x2
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Budget Line
),,(
),,(
2122
2111
2211
PPyxx
PPyxxxPxPy
=
=+
y = IncomeP1, P2 = harga komoditas 1 dan 2
x1, x2 = volume komoditas 1 dan 2
0
y = P1x1 + P2x2
x1
x2
2
1
1
2
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Optimisasi Konsumen
),,(
),,(
2122
2111
2211
PPyxx
PPyxxxPxPy
=
=+
y = IncomeP1, P2 = price of commodities 1 and 2
x1, x2 = volume of commodities 1 dan 2
0
X1
X2 X 2X2
X 1
X1
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Optimisasi Konsumen
),,(
),,(
2122
2111
2211
PPyxx
PPyxxxPxPy
=
=+
y = IncomeP1, P2 = price of commodities 1 and 2
x1, x2 = volume of commodities 1 dan 2
0
x1
x2
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INCOME ELASTICITY
=
==dy
dx
x
y
ydy
x
dx
yincomeofchange%
for xdemandofchange%
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OWN-PRICE ELASTICITY
=
==dP
dx
x
P
P
dP
x
dx
xPpriceofchange%
for xdemandofchange%
CROSS-PRICE ELASTICITY
=
==2
1
1
2
2
2
1
1
x2Ppriceofchange%for x1demandofchane%
dPdx
xP
P
dPx
dx
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Sistem Monopoli
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Monopolistic system occurs when there is onlyone or a group of producers behaving such as asingle producer deals with many consumers.Price changes with the producers output.
Rp
C
0 X
C > R
R
C > RR > C
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PMRdx
dPdx
dPxPMR
xfP
Px
dx
dMR
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Harga pada Monopoli
MC
MR
P = AR (average revenue)
PM
0 yM
Price responds to output. MR lies below P (= AR).Producer maximizes profit at MC = MR at YM
At output YM
, the corresponding price is PM
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ANALISIS WELFARE
Sistem pasar menjamin ekonomi bekerja secara efisien
seperti ditunjukkan oleh analisis welfare.
CS (consumers surplus) = ABP
PS (producer surplus) = BCP
SW (social welfare) = CS + PS= ABC
SW merepresentasikan efisiensi
ekonomi.
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Supply
Demand
P
0 y1 y2
A
B
C
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TAX AND SUBSIDY
Tax makes output decrease and price increase ....
0 x
P = f(x)
SPT
P0
XM X0
S + T
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Terdapat 100 perusahaan yang identik dan saling bersaing. Masing-
masing perusahaan mempunyai persamaan biaya:
Ci = 0,1 yi 2 + 5yi + 10
Fungsi permintaan adalah : Y = - 400 P + 6500
Apabila dikenakan pajak sebesar 1 per produk, siapa yang
membayar pajak?
WHO PAY TAX ?
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Pengaruh Pajak Terhadap Efisiensi Ekonomi
Pajak membuat efisiensi ekonomi menurun
CS = ADPP
PS = CEF
TX (pajak) = DEFPP
Swdengan pajak = CS+PS+TX
= ADEC
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Demand
Supply
P
0 y1 y2
A
B
C
Supply + Pajak
PP D
EF
SW Swdenganpajak = DEB
(dead weight loss)
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while subsidy makes output increase and price decrease
0 x
P = f(x)
S
P0
PSb
XM X0
S - Sb
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Terdapat 100 perusahaan yang identik dan saling bersaing. Masing-
masing perusahaan mempunyai persamaan biaya:
Ci = 0,1 yi 2 + 5yi + 10
Fungsi permintaan adalah : Y = - 400 P + 2000
Apabila pemerintah memberikan subsidi 1 per produk, siapa yang
menikmati subsidi tersebut?
WHO ENJOY SUBSIDY?
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Pengaruh Subsidi Terhadap Efisiensi Ekonomi
Subsidi membuat efisiensi ekonomi bertambah
CS = ADPS
PS = DFPS
SP (subsidi) = DEFPP
SWsubsidi = CS+PS-SP
= ABP + CEF + BED
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Supply
Demand
P
0 y yS
A
B
C
Supply + Subsidi
PS D
E
F
Swsubsidi
SW = BDE
Efisiensi ekonomi naik
sebesar BDE dengan
adanya subsidi
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MARKET FAILURE
Market system guarantees the economy work efficiently asshown by welfare analysis.
There are some conditions that make market fail (market
failure) to keep economy efficient, those are when facing :
Public goods Non-renewable resources
Natural monopoly
Economic externality
Tax
Subsidy
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NON-RENEWABLE NATURAL RESOURCE
For example: crude oil, natural gas, coal
o The extraction of non-renewable natural resource at
present will decrease the volume of the extractable
resource in the future.
o Government may levy depletion premium for each
unit of resource extracted to finance the effort of
finding the replacing alternatives of the same amount.
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GOVERNMENT MADE MONOPOLY
Example: electricity network, gas network
o Electricity network or gas network is served at certain area by
single operator (monopolist). No other operator may operate
in that area.
o Government may establish a state company to operate the
business, or award a monopoly right to private company
through bidding. Although the operation right is monopolized
by the company, government still hold the right in
determining the price of the service.
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NATURAL MONOPOLY
Declining average cost.
Price decreases asdemand increases
P1
P2
X1 X2
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Zero profit pricing
Rate of Return Regulation
Multi-part pricing
Long-run Marginal Cost Pricing
PRICE SETTING UNDER
REGULATED MONOPOLY SYSTEM
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ZERO PROFIT PRICING
)().(
0..
:conditionprofitZero
yPy
yyPAR
yACyARTCTR
ACAR
==
==
=
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MULTI-PART PRICING
MC
MRAR
P1
P2
0y
1y
2
Consumers 1 (the haves) pay at P1, and consumers 2 (the haves-
not) pay at P2.
Area = Area
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Averch - Johnson Effect :
is the tendency of companies to engage in excessiveamounts of capital accumulation in order to expand thevolume of their profits. If companies profits to capital ratio isregulated at a certain percentage then there is a strongincentive for companies to over-invest in order to increaseprofits overall. This goes against any ptimal efficiency pointfor capital that the company may have calculated as higherprofit is almost always desired
over and above efficiency.References
Averch, Harvey; Johnson, Leland L. (1962). "Behavior of theFirm Under Regulatory Constraint".American Economic
Review 52 (5):10521069. JSTOR 1812181. 53
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RATE-OF-RETURN REGULATION
Pipa transmisi sepanjang 300 km, diameter 28dibangun untuk mengalirkan gas sebesar 300MMCF/D. Kompresor yang dipasang berukuran 1.000HP. Biaya investasi pipa (termasuk pembebasan
tanah, comissioning dll) US$ 20/in.meter. Biayapembangunan stasiun kompresor adalah US$5 jutaplus US$ 1500/HP. Overhead tahunan US$ 2 juta, danO&M (operation and maintenance) per tahun untukpipa dan kompresor adalah 2% dan 25% dari investasiawal kapital masing-masing. Pemerintah menetapkanIRR sebesar 10% per tahun. Berapa toll-fee gas dalamUS$ per MSCF?
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AGGREGATE SUPPLY AND DEMAND
Aggregate supply refers to the amount of output that
business will produce and sell, given the prevailing prices,
productive capacity, and costs Aggregate demand refers to the amount that consumers,
firms, government will spend, given the prevailing prices,
income, and other economic variables
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Short run: wage rate is constant (low), contractbetween employer and employee
AD
Long Run
Short Run
Output
AggregatePrice
AS
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AD = f(price, income, taxes, government spending,money supply, future expectation)
AD
Output does not change (orincrease infinitesimal)
Short Run
Output
AggregatePrice
AS
Cost of adjustment = price increase
P*
P AD*
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AD = f(price, income, taxes, government spending,money supply, future expectation)
AGGREGATE DEMAND
Y = C + I
Y = C + S
Consumption
Disposable Income (Y)
Exp
enditure
C(Y)Saving
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INVESTMENT
Category : 1. purchase of equipment
2. adding to inventories
3. construction of factories, houses, etc.
Decision to invest
Profit = Revenue Cost > 0Cost = f(interest rate, tax, labour, feedstock, etc.)
Interest rate : nominal
real = nominal inflation rate
CPIt CPIt-1Inflation Rate = ---------------- x 100%
CPIt
In the long term, investment is volatile
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NATIONAL INCOME DETERMINATION
Classical approach : all prices and wages are very muchflexible and clear out the market
Keynesian approach : all prices and wages are not flexible,especially in short term (workingbased on contract)
AD
Output
Price
ASAD
AD
Keynesian
PriceAS
AD
Classical
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PETROLEUM ECONOMY INTERACTION
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PETROLEUM ECONOMY INTERACTION
Y (Gross output of non-petroleum sector) = y (E,R)
E = petroleum input
R = non-petroleum input
Assume that y is linearly homogenous, i.e. y = (y / E) E + (y / R) R
If efficiency in production is assumed, then maximizing y(E,R) PE E PR R
Yields : (y /E) = P and (y / R) = P
Multiply each with E/Y and R/Y respectively,
Ey PE E PR R R y-- ---- = ------- = SE and SR = -------- = --- -----YE Y Y YR
Assuming value of petroleum share,SE, remains constant over a wide range of E, then
Y E Y E---- = SE ---- ln --- = SE ----Y E Y0 E0
ES
E
E
Y
Y
=
00
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( ) [ ]
[ ]
=
=
==
=+=
+==
=
E
E
E
E
PyaE
E
ya
E
yaP
E
yaaEbRaE
E
y
bRaEREyy
Sy
EP
E
y
y
E
:Then
E
y
efficienteconomicAssuming
1
,
/11
1
11/1
/1
This is an approximate form of the energy demand as the function of y and
PE. It assumes of y/E only (ceteris paribus)
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[ ]
( )
outputonimpactmoregivewill
tyavailabilienergyinchangeThe1
)(1
(constant)1If
ys:haveWe
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)(
P
1
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