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2006 2006 Preliminary BaselinePreliminary Baseline

December 15-16, 2005

Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentCenter for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentIowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011--10701070

(515) 294(515) 294--6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu

FAPRIFood and Agricultural

Policy Research Institute

INTERNATIONALINTERNATIONALCROPSCROPS

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357

stokgoz@iastate.edu

Center for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentCenter for Agricultural and Rural DevelopmentIowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa 50011--10701070

(515) 294(515) 294--6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu6357 http://www.fapri.iastate.edu

FAPRIFood and Agricultural

Policy Research Institute

FAPRI 2006 Preliminary Baseline December 15-16, 2005

Growth Rate of Real GDP Growth Rate of Real GDP

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

China Russia Ukraine

Growth Rate of Real GDP Growth Rate of Real GDP

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Argentina Brazil Mexico

Exchange RateExchange Rate

-0.50

-0.25

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

Australia Argentina Canada Brazil China EU

Issues & QuestionsIssues & Questions

China’s import demand Russia and Ukraine’s export potential CanadaAustraliaEU-15 and EU NMS

World Grain PricesWorld Grain Prices

40

80

120

160

200

240

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

US$/mt

Wheat Barley Corn Sorghum

World Grain AreaWorld Grain Area

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Barley Sorghum

World Grain UsesWorld Grain Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

100

105

110

115

120

125

130

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Use

WWHEATHEAT

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357stokgoz@iastate.edu 20062006

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Wheat Price and World AreaWheat Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 1 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 1 %

200

205

210

215

220

225

230

235

240

245

250

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

50

70

90

110

130

150

170

190

210

230US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

World Wheat Consumption and TradeWorld Wheat Consumption and Trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

20

40

60

80

100

120mmt

Wheat Consumption Wheat Net Trade

World Wheat UsesWorld Wheat Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

60

65

70

75

80

85kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

EUEU--25 Wheat Production, Consumption and 25 Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

CAP ReformCAP ReformDecoupling Rate

67% for 2006, 93% for 2007 and onwards

Modulation Rate4% for 2006, 5% for 2007 and onwards

Reduction in Durum Wheat AidElimination of Rye Intervention

EUEU--15 Wheat Production, Consumption and 15 Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

EU Enlargement AssumptionsEU Enlargement AssumptionsTop-up payments

30% through out the projection period

Set-aside rateStarts in 2009

EU NMS Wheat Production, Consumption and EU NMS Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Australia Wheat Production, Consumption and Australia Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Canada Wheat Production, Consumption and Canada Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Argentina Wheat Production, Consumption and Argentina Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption and Ukraine Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Russia Wheat Production, Consumption and Russia Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

China Wheat Production, Consumption and China Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

China Wheat Ending StocksChina Wheat Ending Stocks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption and Brazil Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

CCORNORN

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357stokgoz@iastate.edu 20062006

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Corn Price and World AreaCorn Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.4 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.4 %

120

125

130

135

140

145

150

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

World Corn Consumption and TradeWorld Corn Consumption and Trade

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100mmt

Corn Consumption Corn Net Trade

World Corn UsesWorld Corn Uses

0

100

200

300

400

500

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

Argentina Corn Production, Consumption and Argentina Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Brazil Corn Production, Consumption and Brazil Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

South Africa Corn Production, Consumption and South Africa Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

EUEU--25 Corn Production, Consumption and 25 Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

EUEU--15 Corn Production, Consumption and 15 Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

EU NMS Corn Production, Consumption and EU NMS Corn Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Mexico Corn Production, Consumption and Mexico Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption Mexico Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Importsand Net Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

China Corn Production, Consumption and China Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

China Corn Ending StocksChina Corn Ending Stocks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

World Corn StockWorld Corn Stock--toto--Use RatioUse Ratio

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Stock-to-Use Ratio (Adjusted) Stock-to-Use Ratio (World)

Egypt Corn Production, Consumption and Egypt Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Canada Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

BBARLEYARLEY

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357stokgoz@iastate.edu 20062006

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Barley Price and World AreaBarley Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

US$/mt

World Area Price (Canada Feed)

World Barley Consumption and TradeWorld Barley Consumption and Trade

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-3

2

7

12

17

22mmt

Barley Consumption Barley Net Trade

World Barley UsesWorld Barley Uses

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

kg/p

Food and Other Feed Use Per Capita Food Consumption

Australia Barley Production, Consumption and Australia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Canada Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

EUEU--25 Barley Production, Consumption and 25 Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

EUEU--15 Barley Production, Consumption and 15 Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

EU NMS Production, Consumption and EU NMS Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Russia Barley Production, Consumption and Russia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption and Ukraine Barley Production, Consumption and Net ExportsNet Exports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Saudi Arabia Barley Production, Consumption and Saudi Arabia Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

China Barley Production, Consumption and China Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

China Barley Ending StocksChina Barley Ending Stocks

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

SSORGHUMORGHUM

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357stokgoz@iastate.edu 20062006

OverviewOverview

WorldMajor ExportersMajor Importers

Sorghum Price and World AreaSorghum Price and World AreaAverage Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %Average Growth Rate of Price: 2.5 %

34

36

38

40

42

44

46

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

US$/mt

World Area Price (FOB Gulf)

World Sorghum Consumption and TradeWorld Sorghum Consumption and Trade

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9mmt

Sorghum Consumption Sorghum Net Trade

Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption Australia Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Exportsand Net Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Argentina Sorghum Production, Consumption Argentina Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Exportsand Net Exports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Exports

Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption Japan Sorghum Production, Consumption and Net Importsand Net Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

World Sorghum Trade World Sorghum Trade -- Market SharesMarket Shares

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Australia Argentina U.S.

Thank You!Thank You!

WheatWheat Additional GraphsAdditional Graphs

World Wheat Trade World Wheat Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia U.S.

World Wheat Imports by RegionsWorld Wheat Imports by Regions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Asia Latin America Middle East and Africa

Asian Wheat ImportsAsian Wheat Imports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

China India Japan South Korea Taiwan Other Asia

Latin American Wheat ImportsLatin American Wheat Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Brazil Mexico Other Latin America

African and Middle Eastern Wheat ImportsAfrican and Middle Eastern Wheat Imports

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Algeria Tunisia Iran Morocco Egypt Other Middle East and Africa

Wheat Yields Wheat Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia U.S.

Wheat Yields Wheat Yields –– Selected CountriesSelected Countries

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

Brazil China Ukraine Russia

Wheat Area Wheat Area –– MajorMajor CompetitorsCompetitors

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia

Wheat Production Wheat Production –– Major CompetitorsMajor Competitors

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

EU-15 Argentina Canada Australia

Wheat Exports Wheat Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

U.S. Canada Australia Argentina EU-15

Japan Wheat Production, Consumption and Japan Wheat Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Corn Additional GraphsCorn Additional Graphs

World Corn Trade World Corn Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

U.S. EU New Member States South Africa Argentina

Corn Yields Corn Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Corn Yields Corn Yields –– Selected CountriesSelected Countries

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mt/ha

China Russia Ukraine Canada

Corn Area Corn Area –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Corn Production Corn Production –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

EU New Member States Argentina South Africa U.S.

Corn Exports Corn Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

U.S. EU New Member States South Africa Argentina

Latin American Corn ImportsLatin American Corn Imports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Brazil Mexico Other Latin America

Middle Eastern and African Corn ImportsMiddle Eastern and African Corn Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Israel Other Middle East Algeria Egypt Other Africa

Asian Corn ImportsAsian Corn Imports

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

China Japan South Korea Taiwan Indonesia Malaysia

Major OECD Corn ImportersMajor OECD Corn Importers

0

4

8

12

16

20

24

28

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Japan EU-15 Canada

Japan Corn Production, Consumption and Japan Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Taiwan Corn Production, Consumption and Taiwan Corn Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Barley Additional GraphsBarley Additional Graphs

World Barley Trade World Barley Trade –– Market SharesMarket Shares

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

Percent

Australia Canada EU-15 Ukraine

Barley Production Barley Production –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Canada EU-15 Russia Ukraine

Barley Exports Barley Exports –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

-2

2

6

10

14

18

22

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Canada EU-15 Russia Ukraine

Barley Imports by Major ImportersBarley Imports by Major Importers

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Japan China Saudi Arabia

Japan Barley Production, Consumption and Japan Barley Production, Consumption and Net ImportsNet Imports

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

mmt

Consumption Production Net Imports

Sorghum Additional GraphsSorghum Additional Graphs

Sorghum Area Sorghum Area –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Argentina U.S.

Sorghum Yields Sorghum Yields –– Major ExportersMajor Exporters

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Australia Argentina U.S.

Sorghum Imports by Major ImportersSorghum Imports by Major Importers

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Mexico Japan

GRAINSGRAINS

Simla Tokgöz(515) 294-6357stokgoz@iastate.edu 20062006

Argentina Grain ExportsArgentina Grain Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Corn Sorghum

Argentina Grain AreaArgentina Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Sorghum

Australia Grain ExportsAustralia Grain Exports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Australia Grain AreaAustralia Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Canada Grain ExportsCanada Grain Exports

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

Canada Grain AreaCanada Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

EUEU--15 Grain Exports15 Grain Exports

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

EUEU--15 Grain Area15 Grain Area

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

Brazil Grain ImportsBrazil Grain Imports

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley

Brazil Grain AreaBrazil Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Corn Wheat Barley

Mexico Grain ImportsMexico Grain Imports

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

Mexico Grain AreaMexico Grain Area

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Barley Sorghum Corn

China Grain ImportsChina Grain Imports

-20

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Wheat Corn Barley

China Grain AreaChina Grain Area

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mha

Wheat Corn Barley

Japanese Grain ImportsJapanese Grain Imports

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015

mmt

Corn Wheat Barley Sorghum

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