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Mark Duvall Director, Electric Transportation and Energy Storage
Energy and Climate Change Research Seminar
May 18th, 2012
Electric Transportation
2 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Mainstream PEV Commercialization Began December 2010
Chevrolet Volt – Extended Range Electric Vehicle
(EREV - A plug-in hybrid with a guaranteed electric range).
– 25-50 mile advertised range – Charging: 8-10 hours at 120V, 12A
3-4 hours at 240V, 15A
Nissan Leaf – Battery Electric Vehicle – 100-mile advertised range – Charging: 20 hours at 120V, 12A
8 hours at 240V, 15A 30 min at 400V, 150A
3 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Battery Electric Vehicles
• Plug-in vehicle with rechargeable battery only
• Driving range limited by battery size – industry norm for range ~ 100 miles – Tesla is exception, offering longer
range
• Nominal recharge time of about eight hours (fully depleted battery)
• The majority of PEV launches through 2012 are BEVs
Mitsubishi ‘i’ battery electric vehicle. Photo courtesy of Mitsubishi.
Ford Focus Electric battery electric vehicle. Photo courtesy of Ford.
4 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Plug-in vehicle with rechargeable battery
• Internal combustion engine allows for extended driving
• Typically based on hybrid vehicle technology (e.g. Prius Plug-In)
• 10 – 40 miles electric range • Likely to blend electricity and
gasoline at higher speeds, power
Toyota Prius Plug-In Hybrid. Photo courtesy of Toyota.
Ford C-MAX Energi plug-in hybrid. Photo courtesy of Ford.
5 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Extended Range Electric Vehicle
• A type of PHEV—rechargeable battery plus a combustion engine
• EREVs drive like BEVs until battery is depleted then switch to hybrid mode
• Something of a ‘new’ category – Many consider to be distinct and
separate category from PHEVs
• EREVs can also drive for extended distances between charges using engine
• Electric range typically longer, 25-50 miles
Chevrolet Volt Extended Range Electric Vehicle (EREV). Photo courtesy of General Motors
6 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
2012 2013 2014
Tesla Roadster since 2008
Mitsubishi I Launch Early 2012
Nissan LEAF since 2010
Ford Focus Electric Launch Early 2012
BMW ActiveE trial begins 2012
Fisker Karma Launch 2011
smart fortwo electric drive Launch 2012
Toyota Plug In Prius Launches Early 2012
Chevrolet Volt since 2010
Tesla Model S Launches Mid-2012
Tesla Model X Launch 2013
Toyota RAV4 EV Launch 2013
Chevrolet Spark Launch 2013
Ford C-MAX Energi Launch Late 2012
Ford Fusion Energi Launch 2013
Cadillac ELR Launch 2014
BYD e6 Launch 2013 CODA Sedan Launch
Early 2012 BYD F3DM Launch 2013
Volvo C30 Electric Launch 2013
Toyota FT-EV Launch 2013
BMW i3 Launch 2013
BMW i8 Launch 2014
Volkswagen E-Golf Launch 2014
Volvo V70 PHEV Launch 2014
Honda Fit EV Launch Late 2012
Volkswagen E-Bugster Launch 2014
Mitsubishi Px-MiEV Launch 2014
Audi A1 E-Tron Launch 2014
Scion iQ Launch Late 2012
Kia Ray Launch 2014
Hyundai BlueOn Launch 2014
Source: EEI
7 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Cumulative PEV Sales from 2010 – 2015
8 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Early Insights from PEV Data
• Drivers plug in—often • The vehicles are extremely well-received • 120 volt home charging is very popular, even for battery
EVs • A typical recharge is not a lot of energy ~ 6 kWh • Charge power and battery capability are increasing rapidly
with new models
Source: GM - Chevrolet Volt data, nationwide (~80% of Volts in use)
9 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Electricity Pricing for PEVs Electricity is an inexpensive, relatively stable transportation fuel
0.00
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Jan 1976 Jan 1980 Jan 1984 Jan 1988 Jan 1992 Jan 1996 Jan 2000 Jan 2004 Jan 2008 Jan 2012
Electricity Real Price May 2011 $ Gasoline Real Price May 2011 $
Dollars per gallon (equivalent) Forecast
Iran-Iraq war starts
Iranian Revolution, 1979 Energy Crisis
‘80 Recession
‘81-’82 Recession starts
Crude Oil Price Collapse
Asian Financial Crisis
‘01 Recession
US Invades Iraq
Hurricane Katrina
‘07-’09 Financial Crisis starts
Hurricane Rita
Hurricanes Ike & Gustav
???Iraq invades Kuwait, 1990 Oil shock
Middle East Unrest
10 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
10,000 – 12,500 miles per year
PEV Cost of Ownership is Competitive Chevrolet Volt – 10 Year Total Cost of Ownership
11 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Charging Infrastructure PEVs Generally Have Three Charging Options
120V – Level 1 Portable cordset
Use any 120V outlet Up to 1.44 kW
240V – Level 2 Permanent charge station (EVSE)
Typ. 3.3 – 6.6 kW, but up to 19.2 kW
DC Fast Charging Up to ~ 50 – 60 kW
Fast, expensive Standard not yet in place
12 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
A Few Points about PEV Infrastructure
• You need less of it than you think—however societal benefit can increase with more
• PEVs are a paradigm shift – weekly refueling versus daily recharging will drive charging behavior
• Don’t underestimate the ‘power’ of Level 1 charging • Keep an eye on DC fast charging • Highly scaled future charging will be smart and in many
cases fast • We have to understand the PEV driver’s value
proposition for charging
13 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Infrastructure can be expensive ~ $1500 home, $2500+ public
• Focus on Residential – 95% of vehicles end day at home – Lower residential cost, improve convenience
• Workplace – 2nd priority in terms of use
• Public Charging – Critical (BEV range)
– Regional infrastructure – Convenience: Increase electricity use in PHEVs,
support paradigm shift – Understand value proposition, societal value
Residential
Workplace
Public
Planning and Implementing Infrastructure
14 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Most Charging Will Occur at Home
Most people start at home… … and end at home.
Transportation Statistics for Electric Transportation. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: December 2011. Product ID #1021848.
There is very little variation between days – less than 5% change from weekdays and weekends.
15 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
However, Workplace Charging is Important
Transportation Statistics for Electric Transportation. EPRI, Palo Alto, CA: December 2011. Product ID #1021848.
16 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
PHEVs with Low Electric Range See Higher Benefits from Increased Charging
17 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
PEV Driver ‘Needs and Wants’ Can Differ Workplace Charging – BEV100 6.6kW
When BEV100s are only allowed to charge when needed, they charge nearly the entire time. Again, very little benefit is seen for shared-charger model.
18 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
PEV Driver ‘Needs and Wants’ Can Differ Workplace Charging – PHEV40 1.44kW
19 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Results
20 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Statewide or Regional Infrastructure State of Connecticut Example – 275 Level 2 EVSEs
100% of population within 5 miles of charge station
21 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Regional Infrastructure
• Provides a ‘safety net’ for BEV drivers that might get stranded
• Leveraging smaller town and city locations brings entire state population into EV infrastructure framework and culture
• Is not likely to see high use • Is not likely to be financially viable by itself • Should be simple, reliable, safe, and secure • Can help indicate locations for future DC fast charging
locations • Evens out some of the problems with early assumptions
22 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
System Level Impacts of PEV Charging are Low
Reducing charging availability, ultimately increases residential evening power demand
23 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
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0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50Potential PEV Customers
Rem
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apac
ity (k
VA/C
usto
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10 kVA15 kVA25 kVA37.5 kVA50 kVA75 kVA100 kVA
240V 15A
240V 30A
Distribution Impacts of PEV Charging PEV can impact local distribution systems
• Level of impact depends upon time-of-day and charge power • Utility options to manage load and impacts:
• Early notification proactive distribution planning • Time of use rates • Smart charging
Potential risk
240V 15A (2%) 240V 30A
240V 15A
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35%
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45%
A D K M O P V
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Study Circuits
Distribution Transformers240V 30A Peak (5pm) 240V 30A Off-Peak (10pm)
240V Diversified Charging 120V 12A Peak (5pm)
24 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Early Results Indicate Rates Can Encourage Off-Peak Charging
25 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Managing Vehicle Charge Power and Time Significantly Reduces Grid Impacts
Total Cost Impact of PEV: SMUD Service Territory
26 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Smart Charging is the Key to Reducing Grid Impacts, Long-Term Utility Operations
Vision – By 2015, all new PEVs can communicate to the smart grid and charging is intelligently managed
• ‘Smart charging’ is a compact between utility and vehicle owner – Low cost, scalable, and convenient – Minimize system impacts
• Implement with AMI, HAN, internet, telematics, etc.
• Vary time-of-day and charge power
• Uncertain outcome for necessary communications standardization (SAE J2836)
27 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
• Likely to significantly increase customer acceptance of BEVs – Expect DC charging in PHEVs
also • Equipment falling in price,
installation and service costs will be dominant expenses – Demand charges
• Uncertain how to financially sustain a significant network
• Careful planning can minimize the number of charge spots
0
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Po
we
r (W
att
s)
Time (min)
Charge Profiles Pac (Leaf) Pac (iMieV)
Constant Current (CC)
Constant Voltage (CV)
Constant Current (CC) Constant Voltage (CV)
Starting Battery Empty
DC Fast Charging
28 © 2012 Electric Power Research Institute, Inc. All rights reserved.
Fast Charging – How Many?
Assuming a 50 kW DC fast charger, and 6.6 kW charging at other locations, fast charging need is relatively low: 1-5 per 1,000 BEV100s. BEVs may be ideal for multi-car households,
where a vehicle replacement is available.
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