2015 200 weekly economic briefing emerging markets...china small cap index shenzen composite index...
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1 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Weekly Economic Briefing
Emerging Markets China: Into the bear trap
Further declines in Chinese stock prices have taken the key indices into bear market
territory. Given strong evidence that prices had entered 'bubble' territory, the sell-off
could have considerably further to go: additional declines of 30-40% would be needed to
restore valuations to their long-term averages. The macroeconomic fallout will be limited
by low levels of stock ownership, but is unlikely to be negligible.
Ownership of shares among households in China is relatively low but has expanded rapidly,
fuelled by credit. Margin loans outstanding are very high at around 9% of the estimated free
float of the combined exchanges risking inducing forced sales. A further steep sell-off could
damage consumer and business confidence.
Having encouraged the bubble to form, Chinese policymakers are now in a tough spot –
monetary policy was loosened further last weekend but this may not be enough to stabilise the
market. Interest rates may have to rapidly follow equity prices lower.
Chinese stocks enter bear market…
From their mid-June peaks, Chinese stocks have now
slumped into a bear market with the Shanghai and
Shenzhen markets down 20-25% early this week.
This abrupt decline follows a steep increase over the
previous twelve months which we argued in previous
pieces in December 2014 and April 2015 was
unconnected to economic fundamentals and had distinct
bubble-like characteristics.
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 May-15
China: Stock market indicesIndex, Jan 1 2014=100
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Shenzhen
Shanghai (A-shares)
Our concerns about the nature of China’s stock market
rally stemmed from a number of factors:
The rally had taken off despite a steep slowdown
in economic growth and evidence of declining
corporate profitability
A number of sectors including small caps were
exhibiting very stretched valuations
The surge in stocks was accompanied by a very
rapid increase in individual accounts, including
explosive growth in margin trading accounts
A large share of new market entrants had low
levels of education.
Overall, many of the classic elements of a speculative
mania appeared to be present.
…and could drop further…
It is easy to see the sell-off extending further. In the last
ten bear markets on the Shanghai composite, the
average decline in prices from peak to trough has been
34%, with an average 40% decline over the last five.
Moreover, the drop to date has only reversed a modest
part of the run-up in prices – both main indices more than
doubled in the year to mid-June.
2 2
2 Jul 2015
Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
Emerging Markets
As a result, many valuation measures still look stretched.
The ratio of total stock market capitalisation to GDP is
just below 90% (having peaked at over 100%), compared
to an average since 2002 of 51%.
-80 -60 -40 -20 0
Dec-96
May-Jul 97
May-Aug 98
Jun-Dec 99
Jun-01 to Jan-02
Apr-04 to Jul-05
Oct-07 to Oct-08
Aug-Sep 09
Apr-Jul 10
Apr-11 to Nov-12
Jun-15
China: Shanghai composite bear markets% decline, peak to trough
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Average of last 10, -34.3%
Average of last 5, -40.6%
The Shanghai composite index price/earnings and price
to book value ratios are below long-run averages but this
is distorted by a few large stocks with low valuations,
especially banks. The median (rather than market
capitalisation-weighted) price/earnings ratio is over 50,
more than double the level seen in economies such as
the US and Japan.
0 20 40 60 80 100
MSCI EM
Korea
Germany
Shanghai weighted
US
Japan
Shanghai median
Shenzen weighted
Shenzen median
World: P/E ratiosPrice/earnings ratio
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Meanwhile, conventional price/book and price/earnings
ratios for the Shanghai small cap index and the Shenzen
composite index are still very elevated and some 40-70%
above their long-term averages. For all three Chinese
indexes, price to book and price/earnings ratios are well
above the MSCI emerging market averages (by 40-60%
for the Shanghai composite index).
This analysis implies that prices might need to fall a
further 30-40% to restore valuations to around their long-
term levels.
Certainly the kinds of extreme run-ups in share prices
which we have seen in China in the last year rarely end
well. The last time the Chinese market capitalisation/GDP
ratio breached 100% (in 2007), stock market
capitalisation slumped by two-thirds the following year.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Shanghai Composite Index
China Small Cap Index
Shenzen Composite Index
MSCI EM Index
China: Price-to-book ratio
Source : Oxford Economics/Bloomberg
5 day moving average *
There are other warnings from history elsewhere in Asia.
Falls in stock prices of 40% and more occurred in several
countries after the bursting of the tech bubble in 2000-01,
following a rapid run-up and increasingly stretched
valuations in the preceding years.
The case of Taiwan may be especially relevant, with two
major reversals in just over a decade. An equity mania
saw the market rise by a factor of fifteen in 1985-90
before collapsing by 67% in less than a year. A further
Taiwanese equity surge in the late 1990s saw the market
double, only to collapse by 54% in 2000-01.
The latter episode in Taiwan also featured a high level of
margin financing and there must also be a risk that the
elevated level of margin financing now seen in China
creates a downward spiral of lower share prices, forced
sales to cover margin calls, and still lower share prices.
The level of margin debt outstanding is now around
RMB2.3 trillion (US$370 billion), accounting for around
3% of total stock market capitalisation. But this
understates the importance of margin financing because
a large part (around 60%) of China’s stock indices are
not ‘free float’ due to high state ownership: margin loans
outstanding account for more like 9% of the free-float
capitalisation of the main indices.
3 3
2 Jul 2015
Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
Emerging Markets
Margin debt outstanding has soared by a factor of five
over the last year and risen by over 40% since April –
implying that the recent fall in equity prices may already
be causing difficulties for late entrants to the market,
especially given the short average holding period of
stocks (as low as 14 days by some estimates).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
US China June2014
Taiwan 1998 China June2015
World: Margin debt for equity purchases% of free float capitalisation
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics/Bloomberg
Moreover, margin debt looks extremely high in
international comparison: the share of margin debt/free
float capitalisation is more than triple the level in the US
and is higher even than the 6% level seen in Taiwan in
the late 1990s – believed to be the highest level seen in
recent decades.
…with possible negative economic impact
How concerned should we be about the macroeconomic
impact of a steep decline in Chinese stock prices? The
optimistic view would emphasise the relatively low level
of equity holdings of Chinese households, and argue that
any negative wealth effects would be small.
Property
Other non-fin.
Deposits
Bank WMP
Equity
Insurance
Funds
Trust
Other fin.
China: Household wealth, 2014RMB trillion
Source : Oxford Economics/Credit Suisse
Figures on household balance sheets are sketchy but the
available data suggest that the bulk of Chinese
household wealth (around 60% at end-2014) is still
concentrated in non-financial assets, mostly property.
Within financial assets, deposits dominate with equity
holdings around 12% of the total. Survey evidence also
suggests that only around 10-12% of Chinese
households hold shares.
As of end-2014 these shareholdings were worth around
RMB11 trillion, a value that may now have grown to
around RMB16 trillion based on stock market
performance in the meantime. This refers to direct equity
holdings only. Indirect holdings through insurance, and
trust and wealth management products may add perhaps
RMB4-5 trillion.
Expressed as a share of estimated household disposable
income for 2015, Chinese household equity holdings are
thus around 40% or perhaps 50% with indirect holdings
added in. This is well below the levels seen in the US
(around 100%) and Japan and Korea (around 60%). In
the US and other advanced economies, indirect holdings
through mutual fund shares and pensions are also
substantial.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
China Japan Taiwan (2000) US
World: Direct equity holdings of households% of disposable income
Source : Oxford Economics/CSRC/Haver Analytics
Chinese household equity holdings are therefore
moderate compared to other economies, but not
insignificant. A 30% further drop in the market would be
equivalent to around RMB6 trillion of wealth losses. If we
assume a marginal propensity to consume out of
financial wealth of 5% this would imply consumer
spending might decline around 1%.
There are also a number of other channels by which
falling share prices could still damage the Chinese
economy:
4 4
2 Jul 2015
Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
Emerging Markets
Leverage: margin debt itself accounts for around 3.5% of
Chinese GDP so even a chunky default rate on this
resulting from a share price collapse will not inflict very
substantial financial damage. However, there are
reasons for believing that other credit sources (e.g.
entrusted loans) have also been used to finance share
purchases over the last year which could increase the
risks.
Corporate wealth effects: Chinese firms are large
purchasers of shares and a steep decline in their value
may lead to a negative reaction in terms of corporate
spending. Recently IPO issuance has also been heavy
but this would likely dry up with a big further fall in share
prices, reducing the scope for firms to raise funds for
investment.
Spillovers to the property market: Chinese property
firms’ shares have been among the bigger gainers from
the rally of the last year – despite the difficulties in the
real estate sector. Sharp declines in their share prices
may add to existing financing problems and damage the
real estate sector further, dragging down GDP growth.
Damage to the financial sector: the boom in the equity
markets appears to have resulted in strong growth in the
financial sector; this sector reportedly grew over 15%
year-on-year in Q1. An intensified bear market would
mean a slump in turnover and commissions (as well as
possible losses on margin loans) and a much-reduced
contribution to GDP from the financial sector.
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
100
105
110
115
120
125
130
135
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
China: Consumer indicatorsIndex
Source : Oxford Economics/Haver Analytics
Westpac consumer confidence (LHS)
Passenger car sales (RHS)
% year, 3m average
Consumer confidence: despite the likely absence of
substantial wealth effects, slumping share prices could
still damage household consumption by hitting consumer
confidence – especially among wealthier households who
account for a disproportionate share of consumer
spending (the top 10% of households account for around
60% of total household income and 70% of investment
income). On the Westpac measure, consumer
confidence has already been trending downwards for
some time and another key indicator, passenger car
sales, was notably weak in May. An implosion in the
equity market could add to the downward pressure on
confidence even if the direct financial impact on most
households is limited.
What do the authorities do now?
The sharp decline in Chinese equity prices in recent days
puts the authorities in an awkward position. The
preceding boom was encouraged by them, in part
perhaps to try to offset the negative wealth effects
coming from a weakening property market. But their
encouragement appears to have fuelled a degree of
speculative excess that could now create a very severe
market correction.
The monetary easing moves by the PBoC over the
weekend – the most decisive seen in the current phase
of policy loosening – will surely have been partly
prompted by the sell-off in equities. If so, the omens so
far are mixed, with share prices continuing to fall in the
first session after the monetary policy moves but rallying
in the second. There is a risk that the decline in equity
prices now has a momentum that will be hard to arrest. If
so, then interest rates may have to rapidly follow equity
prices lower and risks to our GDP forecasts are even
more skewed to the downside.
For further information contact Adam Slater
(aslater@oxfordeconomics.com) or Alessandro
Theiss (atheiss@oxfordeconomics.com)
5 5
2 Jul 2015
Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
Emerging Markets
Latest data
Recent Data Releases
Previous month Latest Comment
China –Official Manufacturing PMI
– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
50.2 (May)
49.2
50.2 (Jun)
49.4
Manufacturing continues to stagnate by the standards of recent years – so the background for the rest of the region remains weak.
Brazil – HSBC Manufacturing PMI
– Exports (Jun)
– Trade balance (12m total)
– Industrial output (May, s.adj)
45.9 (May)
-19.2% y/y
-$1.5bn (May)
-1.2% m/m
-7.7% y/y
46.5 (Jun)
-4.1% y/y
$0.7bn (Jun)
0.6% m/m
-6.2% y/y
Manufacturing PMI remained deep in contraction territory and other recent surveys continue to point to a bleak outlook. Y/y fall in exports not as great in June as in recent months, helped by bounce in iron ore price (though this may not last given rising supply).
Russia – HSBC Manuf. PMI 47.6 (May) 48.7 (Jun) Policy easing should help promote modest recovery in 2016 after deep recession this year
India – HSBC Manufacturing PMI 52.6 (May) 51.3 (Jun) Monthly data remain patchy.
Korea – Exports, US$ (Jun)
– Trade balance (12m total)
– HSBC Manufacturing PMI (Jun)
– Industrial output ex construction
(May, s.adj)
– Retail sales vol. (May, s.adj)
– CPI (Jun)
-10.9% y/y
$69.1bn (May)
47.8
-1.3% m/m
-2.5% y/y
1.4% m/m
5.0% y/y
0.5% y/y
-1.8% y/y
$74.0bn (Jun)
46.1
-1.3% m/m
-1.3% y/y
0.0% m/m
3.7% y/y
0.7% y/y
Miserable PMI reading in June suggests that the trend in manufacturing and exports remains weak, notwithstanding smaller y/y fall in exports for the same month. In Q2 as a whole estimated seas. adj. exports (in US$ terms) were down 4.5% q/q – the worst performance since the global crisis. The weakness of shipments is forcing cuts in output as inventories are already high. Retail sales in June are likely to be hit by MERS outbreak.
Mexico – Exports (US$)
– Imports (US$)
– Trade Balance (12m tot)
– Unemployment (May, s.adj)
-1.5% y/y (Apr)
1.3% y/y (Apr)
-$4.7bn (Apr)
4.35%
-7.4% y/y (May)
-3.8% y/y (May)
-$5.9bn (May)
4.37%
Non-auto manufacturing exports appear to have been very weak in May – registering their first y/y decline since the end of 2013. On the positive side, unemployment is noticeably lower than a year ago.
Turkey – Exports (May)
– Trade balance (12m total)
-0.9% y/y
-$80.3bn (Apr)
-15.2% y/y
-$80.0bn (May)
Exports fell very sharply in May; sales to the US were down y/y for 1
st time since early 2014.
Thailand – Exports (US$)
– Current acc. balance (12m tot)
– Industrial output (May)
– Consumption indicator (May)
– Private investment (May)
-1.8% y/y (Apr)
$18.1bn
-7.7% y/y
-0.8% y/y
0.7% y/y
-5.5% y/y (May)
$21.5bn
-6.9% y/y
-0.8% y/y
-0.4% y/y
The Thai economy remains very subdued. Though both industrial output and consumption rose m/m in May, they remained down in y/y terms. In April/May industrial output was over 6% lower than in Q1, while imports continue to slump – suggesting weak domestic demand.
Argentina – GDP (Q1, s. adj.)
– Consumer spending
– Investment
– Export volumes
– Current account (4Q total)
0.3% q/q (Q4)
0.6% y/y
-0.7% y/y
-8.3% y/y
-1.8% y/y
-$5.6bn (Q4)
0.2% q/q (Q1)
1.3% y/y
0.8% y/y
0.3% y/y
-1.2% y/y
-$6.0bn (Q1)
Both consumer spending and investment rose q/q in Q1, for the first time since mid-2013. But this is unlikely to be sustainable as import volumes bounced in response, adding to the pressure on the balance of payments already coming from declining export revenues. Real government consumption was up 8.5% y/y.
6 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Events
Monetary policy meetings in past week
Key rate (now) Outcome Comment
Jun 27th – China 4.85% (1-year
lending rate) Down 25bp The PBoC cut both the lending rate and the
seven-day reverse repo rate to new lows of 4.85% and 2.7%, respectively. In addition, it selectively lowered banks’ reserve requirement ratios. This is the most decisive easing by the PBoC since the global financial crisis. In our view, the latest easing is likely to have been triggered by the sharp sell-off in the stock market. But the market may already have entered a downward spiral that cannot be halted by interest rate cuts.
Jul 1st – Romania 1.75% (Policy
rate) Unchanged A steady relaxation of monetary policy was
implemented between last August and May 2015, cutting the policy rate by 175bp to 1.75%. Bank lending is still subdued but domestic demand has been growing robustly over the last year. CPI inflation started to edge up in March-May, but was still below the floor of the 1.5-3.5% target range and the cut to VAT on food will lower inflation in the coming months. We expect interest rates will be left unchanged throughout the rest of this year and gradually raised during 2016.
7 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Asia
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Korea: Exports
35
40
45
50
55
60
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
50 = expansion / contraction line
Source: China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing / Markit
China: Manufacturing PMI
Official PMI
HSBC PMI
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
32
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Exports by destination
China & HK
US
Leading EU
Japan
Exports of Korea, Thailand and Taiwan
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2005=100 (seasonally adjusted)
Taiwan
Source: Haver Analytics / Oxford Economics
Korea, Taiwan & Thailand: Industrial output
Thailand
Korea
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
%
Korea
Source: Haver Analytics
Emerging Asia: Short-term interest rates
China
India
Thailand
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Equity markets
India
Indonesia
Korea
8 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Asia
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
China
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
India
Indonesia
Korea
appreciation
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
%
Policy interest rate
Source: Bank Indonesia
Indonesia: Interest rates & CPI inflation
CPI inflation
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% year (3 month moving average)
Source: Haver Analytics
Thailand: Tourism arrivals
80
85
90
95
100
105
110
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Malaysia
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
Thailand
Philippines
Singapore
appreciation
40
45
50
55
60
65
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
50 = expansion/contraction breakeven point
Source: Markit
India: HSBC Manufacturing PMI
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% year (3 month average)
Source: Oxford Economics
India: Manufacturing & electricity output
Manufacturing
Electricity
9 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Latin America
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
% year
Source: Haver Analytics
Latin America: Goods' exports (US$)
3 month moving average
Mexico
Argentina
Brazil
Chile
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
points
Source: FGV / Haver Analytics
Brazil: Manufacturing confidence index
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
% (seasonally adjusted)
Source: Haver Analytics
Latin America: Unemployment rate
Brazil (estimated)
Mexico
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Index (seasonally adjusted, 2013=100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Latin America: Imports of goods
Argentina
Mexico
Brazil
Chile
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$ bn
Source: Haver Analytics
Venezuela: Foreign exchange reserves
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30,2010 = 100)
Chile
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v US$
Brazil
depreciation
Argentina
Mexico
10 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Emerging Europe
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
%
Czech
Source: Haver Analytics
Central & Eastern Europe: Interest rates
Poland
Hungary
Romania
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
Index (H1 2008 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Central Europe: Industrial output
Hungary
Slovak
Czech
Poland
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
% balance (unweighted averages of Czech, Slovak, Poland & Hungary)
Source: Haver Analytics / Eurostat
Central & Eastern Europe: Confidence
Industrial confidence (LHS)
Consumer confidence (RHS)
85
88
91
94
97
100
103
106
109
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: Exchange rates v Euro
Poland
Hungary
depreciation
Czech
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
Index (Dec 30, 2010 = 100)
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia & Ukraine: Exchange rate v US$
depreciation
Hryvnia per US$
Ruble per US$
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
21
24
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
%
Source: Haver Analytics
Russia: Short-term interest rates
Interbank rate (31 to 90 days)
1-week repo rate
%
10 year bond yield
11 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
Rest of World
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015
% year
Households
Source: Haver Analytics
South Africa: Bank lending
Non-households
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
US$bn (seasonally adjusted)
Exports
Source: Haver Analytics
Turkey: Merchandise trade
Imports
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
%
Source: Haver Analytics
Turkey: Interest rates
3-month interbank rate
10-year bond yield
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
50 = expansion / contraction line
Source: Haver Analytics
South Africa: PMI
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15
%EU Emerging Europe
Source: Haver Analytics
Emergers: 10 year government bond yields
All emergers
Asia
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
2007=100 (rebased)
Source: Haver Analytics
World: Commodity prices
Oil
CRB foodstuffs
CRB raw industrial materials
Copper
12 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2014
May 8.8 -2.5 -0.6 5.6 2.4 2.8 3.6 6.7 2.2
Jun 9.2 -7.6 2.0 4.3 2.0 0.4 1.3 7.6 2.0
Jul 9.0 -3.3 3.9 0.9 1.9 1.5 3.3 6.8 2.4
Aug 6.9 -3.0 -1.5 0.5 1.9 0.0 4.5 8.2 0.5
Sep 8.0 -4.7 0.8 2.6 2.2 2.8 2.6 8.5 2.0
Oct 7.7 -3.2 -2.7 -2.7 2.4 2.9 2.7 8.3 1.8
Nov 7.2 -4.8 -1.9 5.2 2.5 -0.4 0.8 7.9 0.3
Dec 7.9 -3.8 -0.5 3.6 2.0 3.9 2.3 6.1 5.7
2015
Jan 6.8 -4.9 -3.5 2.8 1.4 0.9 -1.2 5.6 4.0
Feb 6.8 -6.4 0.2 4.9 1.7 -1.6 1.1 5.2 4.8
Mar 5.6 -6.9 -1.3 2.5 1.6 -0.6 4.7 7.7 5.7
Apr 5.9 -7.7 -2.5 4.1 1.1 -4.5 3.5 1.7 2.8
May 6.1 -6.2 -1.3 - - -5.5 - -1.1 5.3
Industrial Production
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2014
Jun 2.3 6.5 1.7 6.8 3.8 7.8 9.2 1.6 0.3
Jul 2.3 6.5 1.6 7.4 4.1 7.5 9.3 1.8 -0.2
Aug 2.0 6.5 1.4 7.0 4.1 7.6 9.5 2.1 -0.3
Sep 1.6 6.7 1.1 5.6 4.2 8.0 8.9 0.7 -0.3
Oct 1.6 6.6 1.2 4.6 4.3 8.3 9.0 1.1 -0.6
Nov 1.4 6.6 1.0 3.3 4.2 9.1 9.2 0.9 -0.6
Dec 1.5 6.4 0.8 4.3 4.1 11.4 8.2 0.6 -1.0
2015
Jan 0.8 7.1 0.8 5.2 3.1 15.0 7.2 -0.9 -1.4
Feb 1.4 7.7 0.5 5.4 3.0 16.7 7.5 -0.2 -1.6
Mar 1.4 8.1 0.4 5.3 3.1 16.9 7.6 -0.6 -1.5
Apr 1.5 8.2 0.4 4.9 3.1 16.4 7.9 -0.8 -1.1
May 1.2 8.5 0.5 5.0 2.9 15.8 8.1 -0.7 -0.9
Jun - - 0.7 - - - - - -
Consumer prices
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
13 Economist: Simon Knapp, Senior Economist | Tel: +44 1865268914 | e-mail: sknapp@oxfordeconomics.com
2 Jul 2015 Emerging Markets
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2014
Jun 7.2 -3.2 2.4 7.6 4.8 -2.7 4.4 1.2 8.6
Jul 14.5 10.7 5.2 -0.3 5.9 5.7 8.6 5.7 10.2
Aug 9.4 -4.5 -0.4 1.6 3.5 -2.5 -1.6 9.5 -1.1
Sep 15.3 -5.9 6.3 2.1 3.9 -15.0 -0.2 4.6 2.3
Oct 11.6 -19.7 2.3 -5.2 7.9 -4.4 2.0 0.6 -2.7
Nov 4.7 -25.0 -2.7 9.4 4.0 -21.5 -4.4 3.5 -4.5
Dec 9.7 -16.1 3.1 -1.0 3.6 -22.5 -3.2 -2.9 -6.3
2015
Jan -3.3 -14.5 -1.0 -9.4 2.2 -29.7 -1.8 3.4 -10.8
Feb 48.2 -24.1 -3.3 -13.8 -2.5 -19.5 -5.3 -6.7 -8.2
Mar -15.0 -3.7 -4.5 -21.3 -1.4 -30.3 -13.5 -8.9 -10.8
Apr -6.4 -23.2 -8.0 -14.8 -1.5 -33.9 -0.9 -11.7 -14.8
May -2.5 -19.2 -10.9 -20.2 -7.4 - -15.2 -3.8 -
Jun - -4.1 -1.8 - - - - - -
Exports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
China Brazil Korea India Mexico Russia Turkey Taiwan Poland
2014
Jun 5.5 -3.8 4.3 8.6 6.5 -5.3 -3.4 7.4 11.8
Jul -1.6 -5.5 5.7 4.5 4.1 -3.5 -3.5 9.3 11.5
Aug -2.4 -4.5 2.9 1.2 6.9 -10.9 -1.8 13.9 0.8
Sep 6.9 9.0 7.6 26.5 3.9 -9.5 -3.2 -0.1 3.4
Oct 4.6 -15.4 -3.3 3.7 7.6 -12.5 -7.5 -1.5 -1.9
Nov -6.8 -5.6 -4.1 26.4 9.7 -22.5 2.9 5.0 -3.1
Dec -2.5 -5.6 -1.0 -3.6 8.2 -24.6 -8.9 -12.3 -1.2
2015
Jan -19.9 -16.0 -11.7 -11.7 1.5 -40.5 -10.5 -4.7 -16.3
Feb -20.5 -17.3 -19.6 -16.0 -1.2 -35.2 -6.9 -22.4 -14.6
Mar -12.7 -5.6 -15.5 -13.5 -0.6 -36.8 -8.9 -17.7 -15.5
Apr -16.2 -23.7 -17.8 -7.9 1.3 -40.8 -11.5 -22.1 -16.0
May -17.6 -30.1 -15.4 -16.5 -3.8 - -11.6 -5.4 -
Jun - -16.7 -13.6 - - - - - -
Imports (US dollars)
Percentage changes on a year earlier unless otherwise stated
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