20150429 komarek macroeconomic outlook and challenges for ... · macroeconomic outlook and...

Macroeconomic Outlook and Challenges for theCEE Region

Luboš KomárekCFO Executive Summit Prague, 29th April 2015

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Outline

• I. Mapping out the current situation and economic forecast • United States• Euro Area• CEE countries

• II. Economic challenges for the region• Price of Oil in USD and national currencies• Exchange rate development• The situation in Ukraine and effects of sanctions on trade

with the Russian Federation• Germany – a crucial trade partner for the CEE region

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I.1 United States: GDP, leading indicators

70

90

110

130

150

20

40

60

80

100

120

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Leading indicators

UoM‐CSI CB‐CCI CB‐LEII (rhs) OECD‐CLI (rhs)

• Although the USA has the most favourable GDP growth outlook among the advanced countries, its recovery slowed in late 2014 and early 2015.

• The economy is being affected by significant appreciation of the dollar, which is undermining the competitiveness of US exports.

• The economy is expected to grow by 2.5%–3.0% this year and at about the same rate in 2016.

• Despite slackening, the leading indicators are still positive .

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I.1 United States: inflation, interest rates

• The likely interest rate growth in the USA has shifted to the second half of 2015, mainly due to a stronger US dollar.

• The price level is being affected by the fall in oil prices, the appreciating dollar and – despite a robust economic recovery – by subdued wage growth.

• Inflation is expected to fluctuate slightly above zero this year and rise to a level around the Fed’s inflation target (CF, Fed) or about 0.5 p.p. below it (IMF) next year.

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I.2 Euro Area: GDP, leading indicators

‐80‐60‐40‐20020406080

9596979899

100101102103

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Leading indicators

OECD‐CLI ZEW‐ES (rhs)

EC‐ICI (rhs) EC‐CCI (rhs)

• The GDP growth outlook was revised slightly upwards by all the institutions. Growth is expected to be around 1.5% this year and to rise by almost 0.5 pp in 2016.

• The monitored leading indicators are signallinga faster recovery.

• The PMI in manufacturing reached a ten-month high of 52.2 in April and is signallingaccelerating expansion mainly in Germany, Spain, Italy and the Netherlands.

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I.2 Euro Area: inflation, interest rates

• The outlook for interest rates in the euro area remains very low with no sign of growth until the end of 2016. This outlook reflects, among other things, the quantitative easing launched by the ECB in mid-March.

• As at the start of the year, inflation will be affected over the coming months by the fall in oil prices. This fall has halted, however, and is being offset by the weaker euro.

I.3: CEE Region: GDP growth in the EU (2014)

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Source: Eurostat

I.3: CEE Region: Medium-term GDP growth outlook in Europe

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Source: EurostatSource: Consensus Forecasts

I.3: CEE Region: HICP inflation in the EU (2014)

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Source: Eurostat

I.3: CEE Region: Medium-term Inflation outlook in Europe

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Source: Consensus Forecasts

II.1 Economic challenges for the CEE region

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• Economies facing positive supply shocks resulting from significantly lower oil prices (or more generally energy commodity prices).

• … but stronger dollar partly „compensate“ the effect on domestic price level at CEE countries.

• The outlook for oil prices is slightly rising over the entire forecast horizon.

• The price of natural gas will follow oil price development with a roughly 6 month time gap (implies decline of gas prices during 2015).

• Price of Oil in USD and national currencies

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• Exchange rate development

II.2 Economic challenges for the CEE region

• According to the CF, the euro (dollar) will appreciate (depreciate) slightly at the two-year horizon against the dollar (euro) and against all the other monitored currencies except the Chinese renminbi.

• The rouble has been appreciating gradually since mid-March owing to the non-escalation of the conflict with Ukraine and stabilisation of oil prices.

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• The situation in Ukraine and effects of sanctions on trade with the Russian Federation

Source: IMF

• The „top three“ most connected countries:• Exports: Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia• Imports: Lithuania, Bulgaria, Poland

• Sanctions affect mainly the prices of: (i) meat products (quite a high effect for Hungary), (ii) dairy products (quite a high effect for Poland), (iii) fruits and vegetables (especially Poland)….

• …. but there will also be the effects of the abolition of milk quotas in the EU (price declines).

II.3 Economic challenges for the CEE region

Share of exports (imports) to the Russian Federation of total exports (imports) for CEEE countries in 2013 (v %)

Exports ImportsCzech Republic 3.2 5.0Slovak Republic 2.6 10.0Poland 5.2 10.4Hungary 3.0 8.6Bulgaria 2.5 18.6Romunia 2.8 4.3Latvia 16.2 8.0Lithuania 20.0 28.2Estonia 11.7 4.6Slovenia 4.6 1.8Croatia 3.2 7.1

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• Economic outlook for Russia

II.3 Economic challenges for the CEE region

• According to the latest Rosstatestimate, the Russian economy avoided recession last year and GDP growth reached 0.6%.

• This year, however, the economy will contract by 4.2% according to the April CF.

• Inflation was at 16.9% in March; it is expected to reach 12.8% (CF) this year as a whole and slow to 7.1% in 2016.

• The CBR lowered its key rate in mid-March to boost economic growth.

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• Germany – a crucial trade partner for the CEE region

Source: IMF

• The „top three“ most connected countries:• Exports: Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland• Imports: Czech Republic, Poland, Hungary

II.4 Economic challenges for the CEE region

Share of exports (imports) to Germany of total exports (imports) for CEEE countries in 2013 (v %)

Exports ImportsCzech Republic 31.7 30.3Slovak Republic 22.1 18.5Poland 26.1 27.6Hungary 26.8 25.5Bulgaria 12.5 10.9Romunia 18.9 18.6Latvia 7.1 11.5Lithuania 7.3 10.6Estonia 4.7 10.8Slovenia 19.3 16.9Croatia 11.0 13.6

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• Economic outlook for Germany

II.4 Economic challenges for the CEE region

• The April CF expects a modest slowdown in economic growth in 2015 Q1, but this presents no threat to the favourable outlook for the year as a whole.

• The CF has repeatedly raised its GDP growth estimates for 2015 and 2016 and the April outlook foresees 1.9% and 2% respectively.

• The German economy moved further away from deflation in March, as inflation rose by 0.2 pp to 0.3%, mainly due to a slowing decline in energy prices.

Thank for your attention!

www.cnb.cz

Luboš KomárekDirector,

External Economic Relations Division, Monetary Department

lubos.komarek@cnb.cz

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Global Economic Outlook of the CNB

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• The global economic outlook is complemented with an analysis of a selected topical issue from the world economy.

• http://www.cnb.cz/en/monetary_policy/geo/index.html