29 april 2015project evaluation1 1. fundamentals decision making, cost theory, break even analysis,...
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18 April 2023 Project Evaluation 1
1. Fundamentals
Decision Making, Cost Theory, Break Even Analysis, Financial
Statements, Financial Ratios, Time Value of Money, Measures of profitability, Comparison of
Alternatives
18 April 2023 Project Evaluation 2
Overview
1.1 Cost Theory, Break Even 1.2 Financial Statements 1.3 Financial Ratios 1.4 The Concept of Interest 1.5 Profitability Measures 1.6 Comparison of investment
alternatives
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You learn by reading the text, but also by thinking!
Decision Making
Rekognize/Analyze Decision Problem Define Goal (What) Data Collection Identify Alternatives (How) Select Criteria(s) Assess Risk Make Decision/Select best alternative
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Capital Budgeting Decisions
Analyze (see previous slide) Design (loops always necessary) Plan/Market/Finance/Negotiate Invest! Operate/Manufacture => Profit = Economic
Sustainability
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18 April 2023 Project Evaluation 6
Cost Concepts
Variable and Fixed Cost Net Profit Contribution Break Even Analysis Economics of Scale Average and Marginal Cost Sunk Costs and Opportunity Costs
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Variable and Fixed CostsOperational Costs EstimatesCase Study Example
Variable Costs: Raw Materials 1.4 KUSD/tonLabour Cost 1.2 "Transportation 0.4 "Variable Cost Total 3 "
Fixed Costs:Maintenance 5 MUSD/yearHousing 3 "Management 9 "Sales 3 "Fixed Costs Total 20 "
Break Even Analysis
Net Profit Contribution (to cover Fixed Cost)
Price Elasticity Optimizing Production Annuity of Investment Cost Economics of Scale
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Net Profit ContributionVariable Costs:
Raw Materials 1.4 KUSD/tonLabour Cost 1.2 "Transportation 0.4 "Variable Cost Total 3 "
Fixed Costs:Maintenance 5 MUSD/yearHousing 3 "Management 9 "Sales 3 "Fixed Costs Total 20 "
Sales Price: 15 KUSD/tonNet Profit Contribution 12 "
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Break Even Analysiswithout investment costs:
Future Sales Price 15 KUSD/tonNet Profit Contribution 12 "Break Even Quantity 1.7 Ktons/year
Break Even Analysiswith investment costs:
Annuity of Loans 80 MUSD/yearProfit requirement 40Fixed Costs incl annuity 140 "Break Even incl. annuity 12 Ktons/year
Break Even Example
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MUSD/year
250 Revenue
200 Variable + Fixed Cost
150Fixed Cost incl. annuity
100
50
2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0Ktons/year
Break Even Analysis Graphics
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Economics of Scale
MUSD/year
250 RevenueLower fixed Cost but
200 higher Variable Cost (less automated)
150
100 Variable + Fixed Cost
50 Fixed Cost incl. annuity
2.5 5.0 7.5 10.0 12.5 15.0Ktons/year
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Massive and mighty!
Financing
Equity (Shareholders Funds) Loans:
Regular Annuity Bullet Baloon
WACC
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Criteria / Measures
Return on Investment (/Equity) Pay Back Period Financial Statements NPV, IRR, B/C .... Multi Criteria Decision Making Risk Factor Efficient Frontier (Pareto)
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Financial Statements
Statement of Earnings/Operating Statement
Statement of Cash Flow/Source & Allocation of Funds
Balance Sheet Financial Ratios (Assets, Debt,
Liquidity, Profitability, Market Value)
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Operating Statement Revenue/Income - Costs => EBITDA - Depreciation, Inventory Movement,... - Interest of Loans => Profit before Tax (EBT) - Income Tax - Dividend =>Net Profit/Loss
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Cash Flow
Equity Drawdown Dividend
Taxes Interest &Repayment
Loans Drawdown
Sales Costs
Investment
Shareholders
Government Deb t Holders
Company Cash Account
Customers Suppliers
Fixed Assets
Source&Application of Funds 1
Profit before Tax (from Op Statem) + Depreciation => Funds from Operations + Loans & Equity Drawdown => Funds for Allocation
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Source&Application of Funds 2
Allocation: Investment Repayment of Loans Paid Taxes Paid Dividend
=> Total Allocation of Funds
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Source&Application of Funds 3
Changes in Net Current Assets: Funds – Allocation
Analysis: Changes in Cash Account Changes in Debtors Changes in Inventory Changes in Creditors
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Alternative Cash Flow
EBITDA - Changes in Debtors + Creditors
=> Cash Flow before Tax (Project) - Interest & Repayment of Loans
=> Free (Net) Cash Flow (Equity) - Paid Dividend + Drawdowns – Investment
=> Cash Account Movement18 April 2023 Project Evaluation 22
Balance Sheet Assets: Current Assets:
Cash Account Account
Receivable Inventory
Total Current A Fixed Assets => Total Assets
Debt & Capital: Current Liabilities Long Term Debt
Total Debt Equity Profit & Loss Bal
Total Capital => Debt &
Capital18 April 2023 Project Evaluation 23
Financial Ratios
Debt Management (DR, DSC, LLCR) Liquidity (Current Ratios) Asset Management (Turnover
Ratios) Market Value (P/E, Internal Value) Profitability (ROI, ROE)
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The Concept of Interest
Time Value of Money Present and Future Value
Calculations Net Present Value (NPV) of Cash
Flow Series Profitability Measures Comparison of alternatives
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Time Value of Money
Amount today is not equal to same amount after n years
Many reasons: Opportunity to earn interest Inflation Risk Impatience?
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Present and Future Values
Present Value: P, Future Value: F Interest Rate per year: r Future Value after 1 year: F = P*(1+r) After 2 years: F2 = P*(1+r)*(1+r) After n years: Fn = P*(1+r)^n Present Value of F: Pn = Fn / (1+r)^n
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Net Present Value of Cash Flow Series
Invested Capital is Cash Flow out Operations generate Cash Flow in Annual cash in/out: An Net Present Value:
NPV = Sum(An/(1+r)^n) Should be > 0
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NPV Example, Project A:
Interest rate = 10% Invested Capital year 0 : -100 MUSD Operations years 1-5 => +30 “ NPV: Year 0: -100 year 1: +30/(1+0.1) = 27.3 year 2: +30/(1+0.1)^2 = 24.8 etc
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NPV Example:Interest
Project A: 10%Year Cash Flow Present Accum.
n An: Value: NPV0 -100 -100.0 -100.01 30 27.3 -72.72 30 24.8 -47.93 30 22.5 -25.44 30 20.5 -4.95 30 18.6 13.7
Sum: 50 13.7Internal Rate of Return 15.2%
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Profitability Measures Net Present Value Pay Back Period, discounted Annual Worth / Annuity Benefit / Cost Ratio Internal Rate of Return (IRR) Relation of IRR to NPV
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Profitability measures for the Example Pay Back Period undiscounted = 4 years Pay Back Period discounted = 5 years Annuity of -100 MUSD = 26.4 Annual Cash Flow in = 30.0 Annual Net Worth = 3.6 Benefits = NPV of 30 in 5 years = 113.7 Cost = 100 Benefit/Cost Ratio = 1.137 (must be > 1)
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Internal Rate of Return Definition: The interest rate that
results in a NPV = 0 Search for r = IRR such that: -100 = sum( 30/(1+r)^n) Interpretation: Earning 30 MUSD per
year is equivalent of having 100 MUSD on an account with interest rate of r
Here IRR = 15.2%
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Relation of IRR to NPV
Interest Net PresentRate Value
0% 50.02% 41.44% 33.66% 26.48% 19.8
10% 13.712% 8.114% 3.016% -1.8 18% -6.2 20% -10.3
Net Present Value
-20.0
-10.0
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
Interest Rate
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Comparison of investment alternatives Marginal Attractive Rate of Return
(MARR) Problems with uneven lifetimes Incremental Method
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To every problem there exists a solution!
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Marginal Attractive Rate of Return (MARR)
The lowest acceptable limit for IRR, i.e. IRR should be > MARR
MARR is determined by the best available alternative use of money
MARR can be IRR of best alternative investment possibility, or loan interest of the most expensive loan
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Problems with uneven lifetimes
Determine lifetime (planning horizon) for each investment alternative
If uneven, use the shortest lifetime = Tmin in comparison
Estimate salvage value for other alternatives at end of Tmin and add to the cash flow
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Incremental Method for Comparison
NPV measure: Select highest NPV Annual Worth: Same Pay Back Period: Not applicable IRR and B/C measures: Use
incremental method, i.e. calculate the difference
Determine if IRRdiff > MARR Determine if B/Cdiff > 1
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Example of Incremental Method
InterestProject B: 10%
YearCash Flow Present Accum.n An: Value: NPV0 -150 -150.0 -150.01 42 38.2 -111.82 42 34.7 -77.13 42 31.6 -45.64 42 28.7 -16.95 42 26.1 9.2
Sum: 60 9.2Internal Rate of Return 12.4%
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Difference B – A => IRR < MARR, so A is selected
Project B - A : 10%YearCash Flow Present Accum.
n An: Value: NPV0 -50 -50.0 -50.01 12 10.9 -39.12 12 9.9 -29.23 12 9.0 -20.24 12 8.2 -12.05 12 7.5 -4.5
Sum: 10 -4.5Internal Rate of Return 6.4%
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We can´t always be choosy!
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