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SPOT AND CONTRACT PRICES IN A tBMMB# DISRUPTION.- GAO MODEL1 40

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CONTRACT PRICES IN 3, 10 AND 19 MME?D DISRUPTIONS CGA0 MODEL1 4

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aw UI l saalmas pue spoo6 bursn-Ablaua pue r(6zaua JO aD?;ld aqq bu:seasrDu? Aq uol7e~3u~ aseamu? ue3 suorqdnzs?p lTlddns

NOItLQldNI

l LLZ l d ‘ff-a atqe& ‘6fz l d ‘S-a atqe& ‘S6Z l d 'ss-a wqu '2861 vu 'quap?sazd ayq 20 vodaa ayurouo~3

9-L L’f. 8’S 1’9 L’L L’L 5’8 9-s 6-t 9-s 6’S 6-P

6’1 - P’OL z-0 - S’EL Z’f f’ll 8’b L’L S’S S’9 P’S 8’S 1’1 - 1’6 9’0 - 0'11 8-S Z’9 L’S f'f V'f f'P Z' - 6’S

WMOJ~ dN3 vm3 (Id31 uorw-C3uI

: a3znos

1861 086 1

6f.61 84 1

Li.61 9f61 SL61 PL6L EL61 ZL6L 1161 Of61

z atcla

l umopMezp ads wnwTxr?w sapnTauI/T;

'suoTqrpuo3 qayJew q)uaJJna 203 ale uMoys s7)Tnsa8 l salnq?puadxa ucj!idurnsuoa leuos;rad ~03 loqeT3ap aqq pasn a~ aJaqM 'abueq3 E86L

s,y~ow 103 qdaaxa '207eT3ap aD?ld dN3 aq7 UT abuey~ 30 avx/<

P’Z P’9 E'O OQ3 0'1 O'E 0'1 e=ww E'l- Z'E- P’ll YJOW

/4 aaww 61

6'1 L’O L'O-

9-z 6'1 1 'O-

z-0 S'O S'Z

OQ3 e=wnH

YJOW aaww ot

E'O Z'O 0

s-0 P'O 0

0 1'0 E'O

OQ3 e=ww

YJOW aaww E

---(loqeT3aa aa?ztd qTagdw1 dN3 ay7 UT abueya quaazad)----

S86L P86L E86L -

PE

E’Z + S’Z - t-0 + L'O - 6'0 + 8'OL+

L’Z - s-1 - f'fl-

OQ3 e=vvw

YJOW /s a8ww 61

L’O + S'O + S'O +

1’1 - s-0 - 6'1 +

1'1 - s-0 - Z'f -

OQ3 eJeqqnH

YJOW aaww ot

E’O + 1’0 + 1'0 +

1’0 - Z’O - 1'0 +

1’0 - Z’O - P'O -

OQ3 E'JeVInH

YJOW af3ww f

- - - - (quaDlad)--- 5861 P861 f86L

9’1 P'l v-0 OQ3 6'0 6'0 9'0 e=wH S'O- E'O- L'S vow

1’0 2’0

S’O P’O

L'O- Z’O y=w a8ww oi

1’0 0 0 OQ3 1'0 1'0 0 e=vm 0 1'0 z-0 YJOW

aaww c - - - (qusazad)----

5861 V861 E86L

8E

l do;rp uoyqdumsuoa ITO pampuT-uoTssaaa2 e Aq paJe2apow aae sasealauy aDyzzd 'suoTz+dnzsyp a6Jel uI--

SNOISllT3N03

CI3Cl33N SI HXQ3S3tr 'IQNOI6ICKlQ 3X3HM SQ38Q h3X QNQ 'SNOILQ3I?dWI A3110d 'SNOISn73N03

6E

*yead aqq ')e (lapour aqq uo 6uTpuadap) quaaaad ~1 02 E qnoqe Kg uoTqeI3ur buyseamur

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UT ssa~ ao quyod abequaDlad E 3leq-auo Aq saseamuy 'Sa3TAzaS pue spoob bu?sn-dbzaua 30 S~SOD aqq

pue sqsor, iC6~aua UT saseaxau? hq pasnea 'uoTqeI3uI--

qe 'ATaAT73adsal 'uoTle6 lad oz'z$ ue '~6' $ 'SZ' $ se q3nul se hq as~l ATT~e~odwa~ pIno suoTqdnls?p agw 61 pue

'01 'E UT saD?ld auTTose6 'suo-f~~puo3 I)ayaeuJ y3e1s aapun--

OP

l uoTqeaaasuoa Ablaua 6uTqowoad Aq pue :slan3 aAyqeu -~aqle 30 asn aqq 6uTbeznoDua Io/puF? 6u;dolaaap ibe pue U~JI se

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hq ssauyDels qay~ew u~equyelu dTay p-[noa ?uawuJraAos aq;L

aq3 laao quaazad 8-9 Aq saDTad qods pasealaap umopMezp umlurxeur 'UoTadnJsry CMWW 01 e UI l suoTqdnlsTp LIT sasealau? aa?ld aanpa;r

03 pun02 seM uMopnezp ads 'UMOpMeSIp ~303s aqeA!srd qq~rn sy

UMoeMeze ads

ZP

l suorqdnzs;p 30 sqsoa 3yurouosa ayq azTur?uTw 02 salD?Tod r)uaumlaaob quala33Tp 30 s?;3a33a aw--

pue 'suo?qdnlsFp 6uTmp dnpT?nq y3oqs aqeayad a3npaA 02 sjrt?~ pue 30 s>DaJga ay?--

‘gTnE> ueTs2ad al??ua aw 30 SSOT e se cpns suoT7dnzslp able1 30 sva33a aW--

:papaau sJ yamasa2 IeuoT2Tppe a;rayn seaze Te2aaas pa;3?7uap; aaey ati

l saauala33Tp a323rns suIIayn2aho MaTA uouhuo3 6ulAflapun aq7 9ey7 JuTod ayq 07 passalbold seq JoTaeyaq -SayJew IJO 30 buypue7slapun

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aw l passasse Xxaqenbape uaaq 7ou aAeq qeqq sabeqsoys 30 swa33a a-y~ouo~a pue aa?ld 1~0 aqq bu?uzaDuoD suofqsanb Lay riue d3~

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a9amN SI ~3w3s3tl 7rQNoI;GIaaQ 3lI3m SQBXQ A3X

suorz+dnzsrp 30 sqsoa ~TUIOUO~~ ampal O'J sa?arlod ~UaUIUlaAOb 20 quaurssassy

SP

l suoTqdnzts?p 6uTrnp ~uauru~a~o6 a43 pue slampo;rd 02 s;Iaurnsuo3 u1023 sza3sue23 auroau? ampaz 07 t3A.e~ se passnas?p

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asuodsau l uo~~dn~sTp e UJ asn 170 ~1023 Ae~e uo?qnqTqsqns Asea MOTTO ~~cl?qrn saT6oTouqaaq 203 saa?quaDur pue !s~.;lodur~ ITO JaMoT

07 s33~ze~ uo?qdnzsypald :sTaaaT ~emou 30 ssa3xa UT dnplrnq ~30~s aqeayzd 6uTbeznoaua apnyau? sass01 a?urouo3a 2uaAald qeyq

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•CQ~L aunr 1sq paqaadxa ale Apnr)s s?yq 30 sqpsaa l sIapour 6ugedTaT?led pi ssome

sasuodsaz ~UaUIUxaAOb sno?zeA pue yaoys aaT;ld ITO quamad 0s e 30 sqDa33a aTwouo;>a ayq 6uTApnr)s Arquazlna ST 1CqTslaATun p203pue7~ q)e wnzo~ bugapo~ 156Jaua ay& l suJa3uo3 asaq2 parpnqs aaey 7ey2 suoT7nqTlsuT pue sztoyqne a47 6uoure ale aznqnd ayq 103 saDmosatI

pue '6~aquIa~o~ pue yApu?d '7ueAaM pue uemo~ "3~1 'KII 'p;reqqnH 'yzow 'za6allaA l watqozd ayq 30 sqr>adse quaza33Tp sassalppe

20 swTT3uoa 7T 30 ymu 'quepunqe ST suoTqdnzsTp 30 S~SOD 3Turouo3a ayq ampal 07 sayD?lod ~uaurulaAo6 uo qazieasaz arTrIM

9P

?3aoi4 OQ3 3HiL

I XICIN3ddQ I XIaN3ddQ

8P

(L\ANI-ANI) + JiQHb - 30 uolqmpoad pawadxa (~1

l\tIdMGE66EZ8'0 + 33ItIdN03x8Z91'LP - PP'ZL68 = rtQHb uoWurnsuo3 TTO (9)

l\ANIx8SZES6'0 + l\UQ3BdSXSZ6LL't + SZZ'ELL - ANI pueuraa hoquaauf (p)

?QdO - ?QdS = CIQ3tIdS e-x& (~1

l\'IQdSx960' + 1\1QdOxP06' + ?QdO aa?Jd qaeJquo3 (Z)

Zq+(UdMd/3d) x (l\'IQdS) = 3QdS aaT2d vds (1)

I XIClN3ddY I XICIN3ddQ

6P

001 x d303dx*Z*~~8’=P~OEE’E = aIs aaTJd TTO T=-'l??sa~ (S)

ZP 001 X d303dx8ZP8Z'L + 6EPZE.E = UICI

(UOTTeb lad S~Ua3) W?ld ITO bU?qeaH aUI0I-l (p)

ZP 001 X d303dxP8ELZ'L + PPSZ'EL = SQE)OW

(uo'lreb lad squaa) aD?Jd au~~ose3 (E)

UQ2UN03dxSZ868' = iLOdSdx8LZP81' + LSEPLS' = 603d (Taxteq lad

suorlenbg

II XIaN3ddQ II XICJN3ddQ

SISOZ ‘3.a ‘NOI9NIHSVM

33U3W WO3 CINV ASElN3 NO 33ll.I W Id03 Sl3fU3113HlNAS

CINV 1ISSOJ NO3311lW~038flS ‘3AIlVlN3S3kld3tr JO 3SflOH -S-i-l

III XICiNBddV

KS (80LTOO)

30 squauoduro=, zocw aqq uo sy~oqs aa?zd ‘IJO 30 sqm33a aqq uo ‘Xue 3F 'snsuasuo3 aqq auruxlaqaa --

!uoTqdnzsTp P la-S3e pue 6uTznp qqoq saD?zd uo aaeq sa6jeqloqs

qoa33a aqq uo 'he 3r 'snsuasuo3 aq'J auTmxa)aa --

:uofquaA -laqu? ~uauxu~aao6 *s-n 30 amasqe aqq UT suorq -dnxsTp ATddns 30 swa33a aD?xd ITO uo aqep oq

qDIeasa1 aq7 30 hmbape aqq ssasse pue L3~quap1 --

III XIQNZIddQ III XICINSddQ

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