6th cycle proposed rhna methodology · 2019-10-01 · • proposed rhna methodology public...
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6th Cycle Proposed RHNA Methodology
Ma’Ayn Johnson, AICPCompliance and Performance Monitoring
Purpose of RHNA Purpose of RHNA Purpose of RHNA Purpose of RHNA
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1) To increase the housing supply and mix of housing types, tenure and affordability within each region in an equitable manner
2) Promoting infill development and socioeconomic equity, the protection of environmental and agricultural resources, and the encouragement of efficient development patterns
Objectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNA
3) Promoting an improved intraregional relationship between jobs and housing
4) Allocating a lower proportion of housing need in income categories in jurisdictions that have a disproportionately high share in comparison to the county distribution
5) Affirmatively furthering fair housing
Objectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNAObjectives of RHNA
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The RHNA ProcessThe RHNA ProcessThe RHNA ProcessThe RHNA Process
HCD Regional
DeterminationMethodology
Draft RHNA
Allocation
Final RHNA
Allocation
Local Housing
Element Update
(October 2021-
October 2029)
Summer 2019
Final RTP/SCS
Apr 2020
Fall 2019 Winter 2020 Oct 2021Oct 2020
• Three options developed based on feedback from RHNA Subcommittee and stakeholders
• Each option applies different components
• One option will be recommended to the RHNA Subcommittee, CEHD, and Regional Council for submittal to HCD
Proposed RHNA Methodology: OptionsProposed RHNA Methodology: OptionsProposed RHNA Methodology: OptionsProposed RHNA Methodology: Options
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Proposed RHNA Methodology*Proposed RHNA Methodology*Proposed RHNA Methodology*Proposed RHNA Methodology*
Option 1• Share of population• Share of population within
high quality transit areas• Share of regional undersupply
of building permits issued• Local input/Future vacancy
need/Replacement need• Social equity adjustment
Option 2
• Share of population• Share of population within
high quality transit areas• Social equity adjustment
Option 3
• Local input/Future vacancy need/Replacement need
• Social equity adjustment
*Stakeholders are invited to share comments and propose other components or options
Option 1Option 1Option 1Option 1Step 1 Determining Existing NeedStep 1 Determining Existing NeedStep 1 Determining Existing NeedStep 1 Determining Existing Need
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Option 1Option 1Option 1Option 1Step 1: Determining Existing NeedStep 1: Determining Existing NeedStep 1: Determining Existing NeedStep 1: Determining Existing Need
Very low
Low
Moderate
110% social equity
adjustment
Jurisdiction Existing
Housing Need
Jurisdiction Existing Housing Need
(only three categories)
Option 1Option 1Option 1Option 1Step 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing Need
Jurisdiction
Projected Housing
Need
Jurisdiction’s share of regional
projected HH growth
Future
vacancy
need
(owner)
Future
vacancy
need
(renter)
Jurisdiction’s
share of
regional
replacement
need
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Option 1Option 1Option 1Option 1Step 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing NeedStep 2: Determining Projected Housing Need
Option 1Option 1Option 1Option 1Step 3: Total RHNA AllocationStep 3: Total RHNA AllocationStep 3: Total RHNA AllocationStep 3: Total RHNA Allocation
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Option 2Option 2Option 2Option 2Step 1Step 1Step 1Step 1
Option 2Option 2Option 2Option 2Step 2Step 2Step 2Step 2
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• Similar to projected need from Option 1
• Share of regional population growth instead of household growth
• Horizon year based on closest household growth to regional determination from HCD
Option 3Option 3Option 3Option 3Step 1Step 1Step 1Step 1
Option 3Option 3Option 3Option 3Step 2Step 2Step 2Step 2
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How do the options affect different jurisdictions?
City A • Urbanized• Within County X• Most of population is within an HQTA• Population: Appx. 65,000• Higher concentration of lower income households than other parts of the county
City A and City BCity A and City BCity A and City BCity A and City B
• City B• Suburban community• Within County Y• No HQTAs within jurisdiction
• Population: Appx 65,000• Higher concentration of high income households than other parts of the county
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Example assumption: Regional existing need of 250,000• 175,000 (70%) will be assigned based on population share• 50,000 (20%) will be assigned based on population share within HQTA• 25,000 (10%) will be assigned based on share of recent regional permit activity in comparison to population
Option 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing Need
City A Existing need+Share of regional population (0.35%)
606
+Share of regional population within HQTA (0.37%)
183
+Share of permit activity in comparison to population (1.10%)
280
=Total existing need 1,069
City B Existing need+Share of regional population (0.35%)
606
+Share of regional population within HQTA (0%)
0
+Share of permit activity in comparison to population (0.30%)
88
=Total existing need 694
Social Equity AdjustmentSocial Equity AdjustmentSocial Equity AdjustmentSocial Equity Adjustment
36% 32%
25%
44%
24%
45%
17%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Very low income Low income Moderate Above moderate
HH
In
com
e D
istr
ibu
tio
n
City A Existing Distribution County Existing Distribution/ 100% Adjustment 110% Adjustment 175% Adjustment
City A existing distribution
County distribution (benchmark)
County distribution (benchmark)
City A existing distribution
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Option 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing Need
Income Category Very low Low Moderate Above moderate
Total
Current Distribution 30.1% 23.2% 17.6% 29.1% 100%After 110% adjustment 24.8% 14.8% 16.7% 43.6% 100%After 110% adjustment into 3 categories
44% 26.3% 29.7% -- 100%City A
City B
Income Category Very low Low Moderate Above moderate
Total
Current Distribution 15.8% 12.2% 16.8% 55.2% 100%After 110% adjustment 24.5% 16.9% 18.5% 40.1% 100%After 110% adjustment into 3 categories
40.9% 28.3% 30.8% -- 100%
Option 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing NeedOption 1: Step 1 Existing Need
Existing housing need
City A City B
Very low 459 318Low 296 178Moderate 315 198Above moderate -- --Total 1,069 694
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Projected need will be determined by three factors:
• Household growth• Future vacancy need
• By owner and renter
• Replacement need
Option 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected Need
Future vacancy
need
(owner)
Future vacancy
need
(renter)
Jurisdiction’s
share of
regional
replacement
need
Jurisdiction’s
share of
regional
projected HH
HH growth
Jurisdiction Total Need
Option 1: Step 2a Household GrowthOption 1: Step 2a Household GrowthOption 1: Step 2a Household GrowthOption 1: Step 2a Household Growth
City A+Household growth (based on local input)
498City B+Household growth (based on local input)
1,324
• A jurisdiction’s share of regional household growth using local input as the basis
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Future vacancy need uses the breakdown of owner and renter households in each jurisdictionA 1.5% vacancy rate is applied to projected owner householdsA 5.0% vacancy rate is applied to projected renter households
Option 1: Step 2b Future Vacancy NeedOption 1: Step 2b Future Vacancy NeedOption 1: Step 2b Future Vacancy NeedOption 1: Step 2b Future Vacancy Need
42.4% Owner-Occupied
=211 of total units
57.6% Renter-Occupied
= 287 of total units
211 units X 1.5% = 3 units 287 units X 5.0% = 15 units
3 units + 15 units = 18 units
66.5% Owner-Occupied
=880 of total units
33.5% Renter-Occupied
= 444 of total units
880 units X 1.5% = 13 units 444 units X 5.0% = 22 units
13 units + 22 units = 35 units
City A: 498 Projected HH growthExisting owner and renter
City B: 1,324 Projected HH growthExisting owner and renter
Option 1: Step 2c Replacement NeedOption 1: Step 2c Replacement NeedOption 1: Step 2c Replacement NeedOption 1: Step 2c Replacement Need
City A+Replacement need (based on adjustment from survey)
24City B+Replacement need (basedon adjustment from survey)
0
• Jurisdictions will be assigned a replacement need based on their share of regional replacement need
• Share of regional replacement need was adjusted by replacement need survey results
• The final regional replacement need will be assigned after the regional determination process with HCD
• Some jurisdictions replaced all demolished units and have 0 replacement need.
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Option 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected NeedOption 1: Step 2 Projected Need
City A+Projected household growth 498
+Future Vacancy Need 18
+Replacement Need 24
=Projected housing need 540
City B+Projected household growth 1,324
+Future Vacancy Need 35
+Replacement Need 0
=Projected housing need 1,359
Option 1: Step 2 Option 1: Step 2 Option 1: Step 2 Option 1: Step 2
Income category City A existing HHincome distribution
County X existinghousing distribution
150% adjustment
Very low 30.1% 25.3% 22.9%Low 23.2% 15.6% 11.8%Moderate 17.6% 16.8% 16.4%Above moderate 29.1% 42.3% 48.9%
Income category City B existing HHincome distribution
County Y existinghousing distribution
150% adjustment
Very low 15.8% 23.7% 27.7%Low 12.2% 16.5% 18.6%Moderate 16.8% 18.3% 19.1%Above moderate 55.2% 41.5% 34.6%
City A
City B
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Option 1: Step 3 Total RHNA AllocationOption 1: Step 3 Total RHNA AllocationOption 1: Step 3 Total RHNA AllocationOption 1: Step 3 Total RHNA Allocation
Very low Low Moderate Above moderate
Total
Existing need 459 296 315 -- 1,069Projected need 130 60 83 266 540Total RHNA 589 356 398 266 1,608
City A
City B
Very low Low Moderate Above moderate
Total
Existing need 318 178 198 -- 694Projected need 396 245 242 477 1,359Total RHNA 713 423 440 477 2,053
Example assumption: Regional need of 675,000• 540,000 (80%) will be assigned based on population share• 135,000 (20%) will be assigned based on population share within HQTA
Option 2Option 2Option 2Option 2
• Social equity adjustment: 150%
City A Total need+Share of regional population (0.35%)
1,870
+Share of regional population within HQTA (0.37%)
493
=Total need 2,363
City B Total need+Share of regional population (0.35%)
1,870
+Share of regional population within HQTA (0%)
0
=Total existing need 1,870
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• Based on population growth for selected horizon year• Horizon year is selected based on horizon growth closest to HCD determination • Example assumption: HCD provides a total of 800,000
Option 3Option 3Option 3Option 3
• Social equity adjustment: 150%
City A Total need+Share of regional population growth (0.14%)
910
+Future vacancy need 32
+Share of replacement need 24
=Total existing need 966
City B Total need+Share of regional population growth (0.76%)
4,950
+Future vacancy need 132
+Share of replacement need 0
=Total existing need 5,082
A Comparison of OptionsA Comparison of OptionsA Comparison of OptionsA Comparison of OptionsOption 1 Option 2 Option 3
Existing need separate from projected need Yes No No
Higher total of lower income categories Yes No No
Emphasis on HQTA from regional total On existing need only, 20% On total allocation, 20% No
Accounts for recent building activity Yes No No
Social equity adjustment
110% for existing need150% for projected need 150% for total need 150% for total need
Local input as a component Yes No Yes
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• Step by step guide to calculate a draft RHNA allocation in proposed methodology packet
• Online tool available to estimate draft RHNA allocation based on each option at www.scag.ca.gov/rhna
• Full survey responses available at www.scag.ca.gov/rhna
Full Proposed RHNA MethodologyFull Proposed RHNA MethodologyFull Proposed RHNA MethodologyFull Proposed RHNA Methodology
• Proposed RHNA methodology public hearings• August 15, 6-8pm Los Angeles• August 20, 1-3pm Los Angeles• August 22, 1-3pm Orange County• August 27, 6-8pm, Inland Empire
• Proposed RHNA methodology public information session• August 29, 1-3pm Santa Clarita
Next StepsNext StepsNext StepsNext Steps
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• RHNA Subcommittee Meeting to select a RHNA methodology• Tentative: October 7
• CEHD Special Meeting to select a RHNA methodology• Tentative: October 21
• Regional Council meeting to select a RHNA methodology• November 7
• Draft RHNA Methodology Review by HCD• Fall 2019
Next StepsNext StepsNext StepsNext Steps
• Comments on any of the options, components, factors or alternative options
• Written and verbal comments can be provided at today’s public hearing
• Comments can also be submitted to housing@scag.ca.gov by Friday, September 13, 2019 11:59 pm
• SCAG staff will review all submitted comments and post them online
Public CommentsPublic CommentsPublic CommentsPublic Comments
36
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For more information:
www.scag.ca.gov/rhna
Email: housing@scag.ca.gov
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