8 campaigns and elections democracy in action video: the big picture ...

8Campaigns and Elections Democracy in Action

Video: The Big Picture

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Magleby_Ch08_Campaigns_and_Elections_Seg1_v2.html

8

Video: The Basics

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg2_Elections_v2.html

8

I. Elections: The Rules of the Game

Learning Objective: Assess the implications of election rules in the United States

Although the Constitution sets certain conditions and requirements regarding elections, state law determines electoral rules

8.1

A. Regularly Scheduled Elections

1.Elections based fixed termsa. Party in power cannot change date even at times of war or national crisis

2. Congressional elections held on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November of even-numbered year

a. Presidential elections every four yearsb. Defining characteristic of US democracy

8.1

B. Fixed, Staggered, and Sometimes Limited Terms

1. Fixed Terms of Office. Specified not indefinite

a. U.S. Representative = 2 yearsb. U.S. Senator = 6 yearsc. President = 4 years

2. Staggered Terms of Officea. All House members run every two yearsb. Only 1/3 of Senate also run every two years

8.1

C. Term Limits

1. President limited to two termsa. Twenty-Second Amendment 1951

2. Efforts to limit terms of state legislatorsa. State-level limits largely adopted in 1990s (15 states have term limits for state legislatures)

3. Proposals for federal office limits defeated by Congress and Supreme Court.

a. Robert Byrd, W. Virginia was a senator from 1959- 2010b. John Dingell Jr., Michigan is a house representative since 1955

8.1

D. Winner Take All 8.1

1. Plurality of votes winsa. Majority is not requiredb. Favors moderates because don’t want to waste the vote

2. Single-member districtsa. Usually only one winner per officeb. In combination with winner-take-all system, virtually guarantees two-party system

3. Proportional representation a. proliferation of minor parties

b. could contribute to political instability and ideological extremism

E. The Electoral College 8.1

1. Electoral systema. Number of electors same as number of representatives and senators (CO Has 9)b. Electors vote for candidate who wins state c. Candidate with majority of electoral votes winsd. If no majority, House of Reps. Choosese. States determine how electoral votes are conducted.

2. Electoral College influences politics a. Candidates must win in most populous statesb. 2000 Election – Al Gore

Peculiar elections 8.1

TABLE 8.1: 2004, 2008, and 2012 battleground states

8.1

8.1 Which office is limited to two four-year terms?

8.1

a. U.S. Representative

b. Chief Justice

c. U.S. Senator

d. President

8.18.1 Which office is limited to two four-year terms?

a. U.S. Representative

b. Chief Justice

c. U.S. Senator

d. President

II. Counting Votes Learning Objective: Identify

problems associated with administering elections and evaluate proposed

solutions to those problems

1. Votes are counted according to state law2. Goal is to eliminate era, bias, and fraud3. Different types of ballots are subject to

miscounts4. States have different requirements regarding

registration and ID5. Poll workers influence voting.6. Provisional ballots used if necessary

8.2

Hanging Chad 8.2

8.2 If registered voters are challenged, what are they allowed to cast?

8.2

a. Provisional ballot

b. Absentee ballot

c. Ballot by mail

d. Write-in vote

8.28.2 If registered voters are challenged, what are they allowed to cast?

a. Provisional ballot

b. Absentee ballot

c. Ballot by mail

d. Write-in vote

Video: In Context

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg3_Elections_v2.html

8.2

III. Running for Congress

Learning Objective: Explain how congressional elections work and why

they are generally not competitive

Since 1970 96% of incumbent candidates win reelection

WHY?Name recognition and financial

support

8.3

A. The House of Representatives1. Most House races are not competitive due to partisan gerrymandering2. Incumbent and competition not funded equally3. Presidential popularity influences elections, known as coattail effect4. The pattern is “usually” that the Presidential party losses seats in the house during mid-term elections. Unless the president is popular and the economy is doing well.5. 2010 2nd largest gain of a party (democrats to republicans) since 19386. Usually incumbents are not challenged by opposition in

their own party although this has happened to 6 Republican senators in past two elections7. In order to mount a primary campaign a candidate must be organized, have money, and visibility.

8.3

FIGURE 8.1: Safe and competitive House seats, 2000–2010

8.3

B. The Senate

1. Higher profile therefore more competitive

a.Six-year termsb.Only two senators per state

2. Higher cost of Senate campaignsa. Interest groups often commit more money to competitive races in smaller states (money goes further)b. Better financed than House racesc. Incumbency still an advantage but not as much

8.3

FIGURE 8.2: Seats gained or lost by the president’s party in midterm elections, 1974–2010

8.3

Jean Schmidt 8.3

Figure 8.3: Rising campaign costs in congressional general elections

8.3

8.3 Which of the following is more likely to be elected?

8.3

a. U.S. Senate challenger

b. U.S. Senate incumbent

c. U.S. House challenger

d. U.S. House incumbent

8.3 Which of the following is more likely to be elected?

8.3

a. U.S. Senate challenger

b. U.S. Senate incumbent

c. U.S. House challenger

d. U.S. House incumbent

Explore the Simulation: You Are a Campaign Strategist

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_longman_media_1/2013_mpsl_sim/simulation.html?simulaURL=13

8.3

IV. Running for President

Learning Objective: Describe the stages in U.S. presidential elections and the

differences in campaigning at each stage

8.4

A. Stage 1: The Nomination1. Candidates compete for delegates, at the state

level, who go to the national convention and vote for thema. ¾ of states use Presidential Primaries to elect delegates (84% of Democratic delegates and 74% of Republican delegates)b. Some states use proportional representation or winner-take-all to allocate delegatesc. Beside state primaries there are party caucuses, state

conventions, or super delegates.d. CO uses a closed caucus system

8.4

Primary debate 8.4

A. Stage 1: The Nomination

1. Caucuses and conventionsa. Delegates selected by party members, who than go to state convention and select delegates for national convention

2. Strategiesa. Appeal to partisanship in primaries either by projecting yourself as more liberal or conservativeb. Appeal to moderates in general elections

8.4

B. Stage 2: The National Party Convention1.The party platform

a. Defines the direction a party wants to take on policy

2.The vice presidential nomineea. Choice attracts wide media attention and usually balances out the ticket

3. The value of conventionsa. Build unity and enthusiasm. Spotlight on up and

coming candidates

4. Alternative Nomination: by petitiona. Must meet each state’s ballot access requirements which range from relative simplicity and cost to increasing

complexity and greater expense

8.4

Senator Marco Rubio at 2012 Republican convention

8.4

C. Stage 3: The General Election1.Presidential debates are produced by a nonpartisan group

a. Criticism that the debates are more of a “Joint appearance” instead of true debate

b. Almost impossible for 3rd party candidates to participate due to restrictions

2. Television and radio advertisinga. More aggressive in battleground statesb. Target ads to specific audiencesc. Overall trend is more money being spent

8.4

8.4Romney ad

C. Stage 3: The General Election3. The Outcome

a. State of the economy probably most deciding factor of who wins

b. Also, voter turnoutc. Money spent, 1 billion each in last electiond. How the votes are counted can effect the outcome e. Voter identification laws can influence voter turn-out

8.4

8.4 When is the party platform determined?

8.4

a. In primaries

b. In caucuses

c. At the national convention

d. After presidential nominee is chosen

8.4 When is the party platform determined?

8.4

a. In primaries

b. In caucuses

c. At the national convention

d. After presidential nominee is chosen

V. Money in U.S. Elections

Learning Objective: Evaluate the influence of money in American elections and the main approaches to campaign finance

reform

Where does the $ come from?Candidates own wealth

Political PartiesSupportive Individuals

Interest Groups

8.5

Video: In the Real World

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg5_Elections_v2.html

8.5

A. Efforts at Reform: Goals: 1) impose limits on giving, receiving and spending 2) public disclosure of the source and use 3) giving governmental subsidies1. The Federal Election Campaign Act 1971(FECA)

a. limited amount candidates could spendb. required disclosure of fundsc. PACs had to register with the government

2. 1974 Congress amended FECA (tightened restrictions)a. created Federal Election Commissionb. provided money to partially fund electionsc. Major provisions overturned in 1976 Buckley v Valeo.d. Free speech could not be limited for issue based

advertising as long as money did not come from a corporation or union treasury

*Until 2000 Presidential candidates accepted public funds

8.58.58.5

A. Efforts at Reform

1. Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA) 2012 AKA McCain-Feingolda. Enabled unlimited money to independent

expenditure-only (issue only super PACs) b. Limited amount of money given to political parties for party building purposes (Soft money) *Ban on soft money upheld by the Supreme Court because it was perceived as a way to purchase influence???

FIGURE 8.4: Presidential primary cumulative receipts, 2011–2012 (millions of dollars)

8.5

FIGURE 8.5: Super PACs and million dollar donors

8.5

B. Resisting Reform1. In Buckley v. Valeo (1976) the Supreme Court

delineated issue ads from candidate-run ads.2. Result: issue ads are largely indistinguishable

from candidate-run ads AND usually more negative

3. In Citizens United v. FEC (2010) the Supreme Court rejected the long-standing ban on corporate and union treasuries.

4. Supreme Court decisions have made campaign finance a deregulated activity . . .

C. Continuing Problems with Campaign Finance

1. Costly campaigns only for the wealthy2. Incumbents spend much of their time fundraising instead of legislating and therefore have the advantage3. PAC money goes to incumbents, buys access4. Campaign finance reforms haven’t addressed these specific problems

8.5

TABLE 8.2: Average campaign expenditures of candidates for House of Representatives, 1988–2010 general election

8.5

FIGURE 8.6: How PACs and others allocated campaign contributions to House candidates, 2009–2010

8.5

8.58.5 What kind of contribution is limited, must be disclosed, and is given directly by a donor to a candidate?

a. Soft money

b. Hard money

c. PAC money

d. Super PAC money

8.5 What kind of contribution is limited, must be disclosed, and is given directly by a donor to a candidate?

8.5

a. Soft money

b. Hard money

c. PAC money

d. Super PAC money

VI. Improving Elections

Learning Objective: Assess concerns (funding, presidential primaries/caucuses, electoral

college) regarding presidential elections and reforms that have

been proposed

8.6

8.6A. Reforming Campaign Finance

1. Both sides are likely to agree that the Federal Election Commission needs to be changed, but won’t agree on how to change it.

1. Disproportionate influence of the early primary states

2. Strong ideological bias of primary voters3. Possible solutions: national or regional

primaries

8.6B. Reforming the Nominating Process

FIGURE 8.7: Voter turnout in the 2008 presidential primaries

8.6

1. Direct popular election of presidenta. Most frequently proposed reformb. Would give every voter equal weight

2. Opposition to reforma. Would undermine federalismb. Encourage unrestrained majority rulec. Would hurt most competitive states

8.6C. Reforming the Electoral College

8.6D. The Importance of Elections

1. Elections are complexa. The rules of the game affect how it is played. For example, winner-take-all

2. Elections are central to democracya. Outcome must have legitimacy

3. Elections have undergone structural and institutional improvementsa. Participation still most important aspect

Video: Thinking Like a Political Scientist

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Seg4_Elections_v2.html

8.6

8.6 What is central to the functioning of a constitutional democracy?

8.6

a. A system of fair elections

b. A two-party system

c. A single-member district winner-take-all

electoral system

d. A proportional representation electoral

system

8.6 What is central to the functioningof a constitutional democracy?

8.6

a. A system of fair elections

b. A two-party system

c. A single-member district winner-take-all

electoral system

d. A proportional representation electoral

system

Explore Elections and Campaigns: Is the Electoral College Democratic?

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/long/long_magleby_mpslgbp_25/pex/pex8.html

8.6

Discussion Questions

What are some of the strengths and weaknesses of the electoral process? Has the way we elect a president been compromised by PACs and Super PACs?

8

Video: So What?

http://media.pearsoncmg.com/ph/hss/SSA_SHARED_MEDIA_1/polisci/presidency/Magleby_Ch08_Campaigns_and_Elections_Seg6_v2.html

8