8th annual vitamin and sports nutrition study webinar
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Webinar Series
Wednesay - May 20th, 2015
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin and Sports Nutrition Study
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Research Specs: Survey of 1,015 Consumers via Caravan Panel, part of ORC International. Geographically
and demographically dispersed and weighted. New research vendor.
Each survey from 2010-2015 was fielded in April or May.
Definitions – FDMCD (aka Mass Market) = Food + Drug + Mass + Club + Dollar Non-FDMCD (aka Specialty) = Nutr Specialty + Natural Food + Online + Catalogue + MLM + Other Meijer now classified as Mass (Other SuperCenter)
Sports Nutrition = Performance and Protein Powders, Drinks and Pills. Energy Bars and Shots excluded.
Questions: How Many Types of Vitamins and Nutritional Supplements Purchased?
What Types Purchased and which Regularly (3+ times per year)?
Outlets where purchase Vitamins and where purchase Regularly?
How often purchase various Types of Sports Nutrition?
Outlets where purchase Sports Nutrition?
TABS Group Vitamin & Sports Nutrition Study
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Recordings of TABS Group webcasts can be found at
webinars.tabsgroup.com
TABS GROUP EXPERTISE & THOUGHT LEADERSHIP
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65%0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
R² = 0.942767754053641
Survey vs. Panel CorrelationPanel: Total Purch Occasions
Survey: % of Respondents Stating 3+ Purch
as indicated by its high statistical fit with PanelSurvey is a valid indicator of Sales Potential…
Additionally…Share of Outlet Mentions has solid correlation to AOC shares by outlet
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Percentages reflect % of Adults 18+ Purchasing
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+
Vitamin Category Penetration and Purchase Levels
Slight drop in Category Penetration coming entirely from Heavy Users .
Light Users (1-2 Types) Heavy Users (3+ Types)
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Vitamin Category Penetration and Usage by Gender
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+
TOTALPenetration % of Buyers Heavy
MENPenetration % of Buyers Heavy
WOMENPenetration % of Buyers Heavy
201020112012201320142015201020112012201320142015201020112012201320142015201020112012201320142015201020112012201320142015201020112012201320142015
71%73%
66%
74%
68%
75%
35%
37%37%
31%
40%
32%
67%
60%
70%
65%
71%
74%
34%
38%35%
30%30%29%
77%
80%
72%
78%
71%71%
39%
44%
36%
40%
35%33%
Longer term trend of decline in Heavy Usage among women.
Dropoff in category Penetration and Buying Rate a function of attrition by Men.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Percentages reflect % of Adults 18+ Purchasing
Vitamin Category Penetration by Vitamin Type
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+
Adult Mult Fish Oil Vit D Vit C Calcium Vit B Joint Vit E Probiotics Other Herb Other Min Child Multi Melatonin CoQ10 Wmn Herb Eye Multi
201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015201120132015
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50% 51%51%
56%
47%
28%
29%
29%
26%
31%
21%
21%
17%
25%
27%28%
23%
19%
23%
21%
24%
22%
21%
28%
20%
24%
17%15%
10%
14%
19%
19%
20%
10%
10%
7%8%
11%
10%8%
8%
11%
8%
11%9%
11%
7% 7%
10%6%
8%
10%9%
7%
7%7%8%
9%9%10%
6%7% 6% 8%
0%
9%10%
6%
8%
4%7%
4% 4%
6%
6%5%
7% 7%
5%3%
4%5%4%
2%3%
3%
0%
3%
3%4%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
GAINS: Probiotic
LOSS: Adult Multi, Fish Oil, Calcium, Joint Relief, Co-Q10, Other Herb
Dip not seen in Mass Market
sales yet.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Percentages reflect % of Adults 18+ Purchasing
Vitamin Category Penetration by Channel
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+
1-2 TYPE 3-5 TYPE 6+ TYPE
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 20150%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
11%
9%
9%
8%
11% 12%
40%40%
47%
39%
39%
36%
7%7%7%
6%
8%
6%
13%13%
15%
12%
16% 16%
6% 6% 6%5%
6%
6%7% 6%7%
7%6%
8%
MASS MKT SPECIALTY
Specialty Outlets saw slightly higher purchasing among Light buyers, and slightly lower among Heavy buyers.
Mass Market saw a big jump in penetration among marginal category buyers.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Light Shaded Areas Indicates YAG Shares
Outlets of Choice among User GroupsStated as a % of US 18+ Population
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+. TG modeling for Share of Occasions
Mass Market has recaptured lost share from 2014 due to the surge in Light Buyer penetration.
“Specialty Only” Purchasing dropped vs. YAG.
% of Buyers % of Dollars
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Vitamin Category Share of Occasions by Outlet
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+. TG modeling for Share of Occasions
Walmart CVS Online Walgreens Grocery Costco Target VitSpecialty
Sam's Rite Aid NaturalFood
OtherMass
Dollar OtherOutlet
Catalogue OtherDrug
MLM BJ's Gym
21.5
1.4 1.4
4.5
2.3
9.8 9.7
6.7
1.8 1.80.7
7.9
4.9
9.0
2.0
6.2
0.2
7.1
1.1
$1.9 B
$0.6 B
$1.7 B
$0.7 B
$0.5 B
$0.4 B
$0.9 B
$0.3 B$0.3 B
$1.0 B
$0.2 B$0.2 B$0.2 B $0.1 B
$1.3 B
$0.1 B
$1.2 B
$0.1 B$0.0 B
0
.
0
.
0
.
Share of Occ - 2015Share of Occ - 2014Est VMS $ - 2015
FDMCD roughly 2/3 of retail dollars.
Total Outlet Sales = $11.8B, +3% vs. YAG
Online the #1 Outlet, but share down vs. YAG.
Gainers: WM, Costco, Rite Aid
Losers: Online, Vit Specialty, Grocery, Sam’s
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Vitamin Category Share of Online Occasions by Domain Pure Play share surged to 80% of online sales vs. 67% the last two
years. Amazon has 36% of online occasions.
Source: TABS Group Annual Vitamin Study of 1,000 US Adults Age 18+. TG modeling for Share of Occasions
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Passive Tactics Active Tactics
1.56 1.331.75 1.66
Light Buyers Heavy Buyers
What’s with these Shifts? Retailer Promotions
Passive Tactics Active Tactics
1.72 1.611.46 1.32
Mass Buyers Specialty Buyers
Deals drive more purchasing among Heavy Buyers, particularly Active Tactics.
Both types of Deal Tactics have more impact among Mass Market buyers than Specialty.
Promotional Activity was cited as a cause for sales softness among some Specialty retailers.
+24%+12%
Average Deal Tactics per Buyer
Source: 2013 TABS Group Vitamin StudyPassive = EDLP, PVL, Bonus Pk, Value SizeActive = Circular, Shop for Deal, FSI, Online Cpn, Rebate, Loyalty Card.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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ECRM Promotional Tracking in VMS
PROMOTIONAL QUANTITY PROMOTIONAL QUALITY
Mass Market Ad Support was much stronger in 2015 relative to YAG and to Specialty.
Source: ECRM, April 2015
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Any Sports Nutr Soy or Plant-Based Prtn
Other Prtn (e.g. Whey, Casein)
RTD Sports Shake Performance Pill/Pwd/RTD
37%
16%24% 28%
17%
Incidence: Adults 18+
Soy or Plant-Based Prtn Other Prtn (e.g. Whey, Casein)
RTD Sports Shake Performance Pill/Pwd/RTD
46% 46%36% 39%
31% 28% 29% 26%16% 18% 20% 24%
7% 8%15% 11%
Purchase Frequency by: Type
Sports Nutrition: Incidence and Buying Rate
23% 26% 35% 35%
% Heavy Buyers
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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18-20 21-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
49%
59%63%
51%53%
37%33%
27%25%
20%
14%17%
5%
27%
38%40%
29%31%
25% 23% 22%20%
11% 12%
17%
5%
22% 22% 22% 22% 22%
12%10%
5% 5%9%
2%0% 0%
TL-US (All) = 37%
TL-US (Light) = 24%
TL-US (Heavy) = 13%
AGE
Sports Nutrition: Incidence by Age and User Profile
Gradual dropoff in Light Purchase starting at Age 30, Sharp drop after Age 60.
Sharp dropoff in Heavy Purchasing after Age 40.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Sports Nutrition Incidence by Gender and Hispanic Origin
Men Women Hisp 18-44 Non-Hisp 18-44
58%69%
25%
50%
27% 22%35% 31%
15% 10%
39%
19%
Men heavier purchasers of Sports Nutrition, but not as much as many believe.
Hispanics 2x more likely to be Heavy buyers than Non-Hispanic.
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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FDMCD = 50% of Category Dollars
Sports Nutrition
Category Estimate = $2.6B Annually
% of Buyers% of Dollars
19%33%
22%27%
59%40%
Sports Nutrition: Purchasing by Outlet
FDMCD Only Non-FDMCD OnlyDual
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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TABS Group estimates the VMS category at $11.8B, which is about +3% vs. 2014 levels. Growth will likely come in Mass Market vs. Specialty
Overall incidence was down slightly. There was also a shift of above average users (3-5 Types) shifting to below average users (1-2 Types Regularly).
Probiotics was the only Type to show a penetration increase vs. YAG. All Others were flat-to-down.
Calcium, Joint and Fish Oil are seeing longer term declines in Penetration.
Women are showing gradual declines in Heavy Usage over time, this will depress category growth potential.
SUMMARY IMPLICATIONS&
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Category Growth driven primarily by gains in Mass Market, particularly for Walmart, Costco and Rite Aid.
Specialty Outlet is flat-to-down for the second straight year. Importantly, Online saw a share drop for the first time in 8 years.
Online is the #1 outlet, followed by Walmart, Costco, Grocery, CVS and Walgreens.
Brick-and-Mortar domains lost online share for VMS. Potential causes of online declines: 1) Lack of compelling promotions, 2)
Changes in SEO, 3) Negative Herbal PR
Retailer Promotions have helped to prop up sluggish trends in the Mass Market. Promotional activity continues to have high explanatory power for Mass Market trends.
SUMMARY IMPLICATIONS&
TABS Group’s 8th Annual Vitamin Study
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Sports Nutrition is estimated as a $2.6B in US Retail Sales Category. 37% of Adults 18+ purchase the category.
Ready-to-Drink Shakes are the most popular Segment with 28% Incidence and 35% Heavy Usage.
Protein Powders (e.g. Whey, Casein) tend to have lower category commitment with less than 30% of Buyers purchasing 6+ times per year.
May be “Jug-O” effect of taking consumers out of the market, or Could indicate doing good job at bring in marginal users.
Very strong demographic skews to the Sports Nutrition category: Men Heavy usage 50% higher than Women, but Women still important. Sharp dropoff in Heavy usage after Age 40. Hispanics 2x more likely to be Heavy buyers.
50% of Category sales occur in Mass Market
22% of Buyers are loyal to the Specialty Channel only: 3x more loyalty than VMS
SUMMARY IMPLICATIONS&
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