a keystone battle in pennsylvania: demographics and tactics for victory mark harris, campaign...
Post on 21-Jan-2016
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A Keystone Battle in Pennsylvania: Demographics and Tactics for
VictoryMark Harris, Campaign Manager
Toomey for Senate
The Final Score
• Toomey : 51.1% - Sestak 48.9%• Carried 60 of 67 counties including
Democratic heavy southwestern PA
The Players
• Pat Toomey– Former Congressman from Lehigh Valley (99-05)– Small business owner– President of the Club for Growth– Worked on Wall St– Spent a year doing consulting in China in 1990
The Players
• Joe Sestak– Retired Admiral (30+ years of – Incumbent Congressman from Philadelphia
suburbs– Very liberal voting record– Strong supporter of Obama administration
Economic RealignmentPre – 2004 Post – 2004
Upper Class Upper Class
Upper Middle Class Upper Middle Class
Middle Class Middle Class
Lower Middle Class Lower Middle Class
Lower Class Lower Class
Target Demographics
• Upper middle class suburban women– Philadelphia suburbs– Fiscally conservative– Socially liberal
• Lower middle class men– Southwest PA– Fiscally conservative – Socially conservative
Obama Changes the Game
• Summer of 2009– Healthcare Townhall phenomenon excites and
unites GOP base– Upper class and upper middle class flee
Democratic coalition over national debt and perceived threat to existing healthcare arrangement
– Lower middle class begin to waver even though healthcare aimed at them
Obamacare & Obama Generic Ballot
• Throughout the campaign our ballot lead would correspond within 2-4pts to the net disapproval of Obamacare, 3-5pts to the net Republican advantage
Persuasion
• Began two week aggressive media campaign immediately post-primary to stage race on ideological grounds– Statewide network tv– Heavy in senior and target demo shows
• All media efforts post-primary paint Joe Sestak as outside of the mainstream and out of touch with economic concerns of middle class
Identification
• Participated in a microtargetting program in June 2010
• 22 phone centers plus phone from home program placed over 4 million voter id calls to identify both Obama support and support for top of ticket
Turnout
• Traditional GOTV plan using hard ID data plus microtargetting data to build universe of 3.2 million voters
• Targeted GOTV effort to Presidential voting only Republicans– Door to door canvas for three weeks leading up in
high density area– Phones to 1 of 4 voters: 4 times in run up to
election
Online
• $750,000 in online spend post Labor day• Targeted to key demographics thru Facebook,
YouTube, Google, and targeted websites
The Lessons
• TV is declining, but not dead yet• Message discipline in a divided media
environment is key• Presidential election lessons do not apply
(mostly)• HOW DOES THIS GET ME VOTES
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