afghanistan review and way ahead a perspective april 2012

APRIL 2012 – A PERSPECTIVE

Note – Draft Not for Citation

� South Asia’s oldest nation state.

�Over three decades of political fragmentation.

�Over three decades of violence.

� 5 million displaced spread in two countries.� 5 million displaced spread in two countries.

�Geopolitical and regional intersections.

�Democracy intersections.

� Cultural and governance disconnect.

� “Donor Drunk,” economy in times of global economic crisis?

�Militancy with a time line – 2014 ?

�To carry out a review of the overall situation in Afghanistan and denote a possible way ahead.ahead.

Political

Economic

Social Factors

Review and Way Ahead

Politico Diplomatic

Security.

130, 000 January 2012

INTERNAL POLITICAL SITUATION AND KEY TO POLITICAL STABILITY IN 2014

� Key to stability in 2014 is a strong Afghan government in Kabul.

� Karzai government well entrenched in Kabul.

� Shaping the regional space remains a challenge due to various divisions mainly ethnic.due to various divisions mainly ethnic.

� Parliament slowly and steadily making progress in greater assertiveness over government.

� Corruption and nepotism in governance a major issue.

� 2014 Change of government due, with varied contenders for Presidency – Ethnic differences likely to be exacerbated during this period.

Trends in Violence and Security

Summary of Operations Involving Fatalities in Afghanistan 2012

Initiat

ed by

Coalit

ion

Initiat

ed by

Taliba

n

Suici

de

Atta

cks

Multiple

Suicide

Bombing

s

IEDs/B

ombs

Road

Side

IED/B

omb

Assassin

ations

Othe

r

Viole

nceion n cks s omb nce

Jan 32 5 3 - 13 5 2 1

Feb 25 4 - - 4 6 4 7

Mar 35 5 5 - 13 11 6 5

Yea

r

Jan Feb Mar Apr Ma

y

Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct No

v

De

c

Tot

al

20

10

43 53 39 34 51 10

3

88 79 57 65 58 41 71

110 3 1

20

11

32 38 39 51 56 66 53 82 53 42 27 27 56

6

20

12

34 24 39 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 10

6

AFGHAN NATIONAL ARMY AND POLICE

• Full Spectrum Capability.

• All arms capability.

Army for Deterrence

• Combat or fighters• Combat SupportAir Force

� .

ECONOMY AND SOCIAL FACTORS

� Transition from an economy based on supporting western security structures to indigenous structures after 2013.

� Drop in revenue after move out of foreign troops and corresponding drop of presence of aid agencies. Major job losses anticipated.

� In 2010, of $17 billion government expenditure, $1.9 billion Afghan sourced. Rest foreign assistance as per World Bank.

Economic potential continues to remain weak.� Economic potential continues to remain weak.

� Main revenue from agriculture and cottage industry at present, however there is a drop in revenues due to transit problems.

� Good prospects from mining, oil and gas, transit revenues but only in the long term.

� Transit being land locked country remains a challenge. Pakistan and Iran hold reins.

� Continue to be a large aid dependent country for over a decade beyond 2012. Requirement of funds $ 15 billion yearly?

� Corruption and donor fatigue may affect aid.

� Considerable progress made in various fields including education, gender equity, information and media.

�Demand for higher education is growing.

�Women are playing increasingly larger role in �Women are playing increasingly larger role in society including in the military.

�Drug consumption internally and cultivation a key challenge.

�Unemployment is also likely to be a major vector for social stability.

� Conservative trends continue and will take time for a cultural shift.

POLITICAL DIPLOMATIC ISSUES

� Bonn Conference December 2011 coagulated international

community support to Afghanistan.

� Chicago and Tokyo Conference scheduled for May and July

to firm up financial and aid commitment.

�

�“Our strategy is to shift to a support role in 2013 and complete the transition in 2014. That kind of transition involves a change in the transition involves a change in the foot print.”

�White House Press Secretary, Jay Carney

� Regional players are most important but at present are excluded from the discourse in Afghanistan?

�Commitment of international community in all spheres, political and economic will determine the way ahead. Any reduction in support will ahead. Any reduction in support will be a key challenge for stability.

�Regional compact an essential for sustaining peace current status quo.

APRIL 2012 – A PERSPECTIVE

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