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Arran Locality Partnership

Building baseline Profiles for the Locality Partnership

Arran – What the Profile will cover?

• Priorities from workshops & People’s Panel 2015• Population change – from 2012 to 2026• General health & life expectancy• Household Incomes• Education ‐ results at key stages• Housing – average house prices• Key strengths and needs

Priorities from People’s Panel & workshops (2015 )

• 2000 North Ayrshire residents surveyed every 2 years with follow‐up focus groups.

• Question “What are the most important aims for partnership working in North Ayrshire”

• The aim “We live our lives safe from crime, disorder and danger” was selected by the greatest number of respondents as one of their top 5.  It was also more likely to be selected as the most important.

• In the Arran 45% of respondents selected this aim as one of their top 5 aims.  

• However a higher proportion of Arran residents (55%)selected “Our young people are successful learners,confident individuals, effective contributors and responsible citizens” as their top aim

People’s Panel

55

45 45

34 34

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Our young peopleare successful

learners, confidentindividuals,effective

contributors andresponsible citizens

We live our livessafe from crime,

disorder and danger

We have strong,resilient andsupportive

communities wherepeople take

responsibility fortheir own actions

and how they affectothers

We live in well‐designed,

sustainable placeswhere we are able

to access theamenities and

services we need

We realise our fulleconomic potentialwith more and

betteremployment

opportunities forour people

Percentage of Arran respondents selecting priority as  a top 5 aim 

• The workshops generated 943 comments from over 150 people who participated.

• Workshops consulted on the membership, role and responsibilities of new Partnerships:

– Are these the right people? Anyone missing?– Are these a fair set of responsibilities? Anything missing?

– What should be the role of Partnerships in the development and delivery of Locality Plans?

Locality Planning workshops 

47.9

61.2

70.9

53.2

60.9

38.5

43.6

59.5

91.3

19.7

21.6

9.3

26.6

17.3

36.1

30.8

4.0

0.0

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

Arran

Irvine

Kilwinning

Three Towns

Garnock Valley

North Coast

Cumbrae

Third Sector Interface

Youth Groups

Fig 1. Distribution of comments by Locality & Outlook

OverallPositiveNeutral

OverallNegative

Population Change

4,589 

21,090 

39,085 

17,255 

21,450 

32,981 

 ‐

 5,000

 10,000

 15,000

 20,000

 25,000

 30,000

 35,000

 40,000

 45,000

Arran GarnockValley

Irvine Kilwinning NorthCoast

ThreeTowns

Locality Area ‐ Population estimates 2014

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Popu

latio

n

Arran Population Projection 2012‐2026

0 to 1718 to 6465+

‐47%

‐32%

+15%

Change in the key age groups 2012 and 2026 -Arran

Working Age18‐64yrs

Over 65s

0‐17yrs

Arran 2012

Source:  National Records of Scotland, Population Projections 2016

16%

52%

32%

Working Age18‐64yrs

14%

37%

49%

0‐17yrsOver 65s

Arran 2026

Population change to 2026 summary

Between 2012 and 2026 the population of:• North Ayrshire is projected to decrease by -3.6%

(from 137,560 to 132,587), while Arran will decrease by 25% (4,624 to 3,468)

• Over 65s are the only age group projected to increase in size in the Arran locality (up by 15%) - half the North Ayrshire increase of 31% for the same period.

• Under 18s in Arran will decrease by a third (-32%) compared with a North Ayrshire decrease of -9%

• Working age residents will decline by around one half (-47%) in Arran compared with a decrease of -13% across North Ayrshire

Life Expectancy ‐ Scotland and North Ayrshire 

73.8

77.1

73.5

75.9

73.2

76.5

74.4

78.2

70.0

71.0

72.0

73.0

74.0

75.0

76.0

77.0

78.0

79.0

2002‐2004 2007‐2009 2012‐2014

Life Expectancy  ‐ Scotland & Ayrshire 2014

ScotlandEast AyrshireNorth AyrshireSouth Ayrshire

Arran 80.9 years

MALES

FEMALES

Life expectancy ‐ Scotland / North Ayrshire  

North Ayrshire

76.5 years

North Ayrshire

81.0 years

Source: NRS Life expectancy 2009‐2013 estimates

Scotland 76.6 years

Arran83.3 years

Scotland 80.8 years

69.0

76.6

80.9

92.0

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0

Irvine Castlepark NorthIrvine Fullarton

Irvine Castlepark SouthStevenston North West

Kilwinning West and BlacklanIrvine BroomlandsArdrossan Central

Irvine CentralIrvine BourtreehillSaltcoats Central

Irvine EastSaltcoats North EastDalry East and Rural

Kilbirnie South and LongbarLargs Central and Cumbrae

Stevenston HayocksBeith East and RuralIrvine Tarryholme

Kilwinning PennyburnArdrossan North East

Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaBeith WestScotland

Dalry WestKilwinning Central and North

Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn

Irvine Perceton and LawthornWest Kilbride and Seamill

Kilbirnie NorthSaltcoats North West

Largs NorthSpringside and Rural

Largs SouthArdrossan North West

ArranFairlie and Rural

Skelmorlie and RuralKilwinning Whitehirst Park and Woodside

Male Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones) 

Arran in Yellow

75.5

80.8

83.3

89.2

65.0 70.0 75.0 80.0 85.0 90.0 95.0

Saltcoats North EastKilwinning West and Blacklan

Ardrossan CentralIrvine Fullarton

Saltcoats CentralIrvine Castlepark South

Irvine BourtreehillStevenston Hayocks

Kilbirnie South and LongbarIrvine Castlepark NorthArdrossan North East

Stevenston ArdeerDreghorn

Stevenston North WestKilwinning Pennyburn

Beith WestIrvine East

Saltcoats North WestLargs Central and Cumbrae

ScotlandIrvine Central

Irvine Perceton and LawthornKilwinning Central and North

Dalry WestBeith East and Rural

Ardrossan North WestLargs South

Kilbirnie NorthDalry East and Rural

Irvine Girdle Toll and StanecaArran

Irvine TarryholmeSpringside and Rural

Largs NorthIrvine Broomlands

Kilwinning Whitehirst Park and WoodsideWest Kilbride and Seamill

Skelmorlie and RuralFairlie and RuralFemale Life Expectancy (Intermediate Zones)

Arran in Yellow

Education

Household Income

£30,537

£34,625£36,402

£0

£5,000

£10,000

£15,000

£20,000

£25,000

£30,000

£35,000

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

Gross Average Household Income (2015) (North Ayrshire)

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

15.5

28.7

20.0

14.1

8.8

11.9

1.0

12.2

22.7

17.2

13.9

10.2

19.8

4.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

£0 to £10k £10 to £20k £20 to £30k £30 to £40k £40 to £50k £50 to £100k £100k+

Percen

tage of h

ouseho

lds

Gross Household Income (% of households by locality )

Arran Garnock Valley Irvine

Kilwinning North Coast & Cumbraes Three Towns

North Ayrshire Scotland Great Britain

House Prices

193,000 

150,000 

133,000 126,500 

118,000 

92,000 85,000  81,500 

75,000  68,750 60,000 

 ‐

 50,000

 100,000

 150,000

 200,000

 250,000

Med

ian Price  (£

)Median House Price 2014 ‐ North Ayrshire Settlements

Source:   NRS Registers of Sasines 2015

48.4

27.6

‐20.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0% Cha

nge 20

04 ‐20

14Median House Price % Change 2004 ‐ 2014

Summary

Strengths & Needs_____________________________________

Summary

Strengths 

• Lower negativity in relation to Locality Planning Approach

• Lowest projected increase in residents aged over 65 (+15%)

• Some of the highest life expectancy in North Ayrshire

• Strong educational attainment in Lamlash

Needs

• Overall population decrease of a quarter projected to 2026

• Largest decline of working age and school age residents in North Ayrshire to 2026

• Highest house prices – less affordability

• Rural pockets of lower household incomes 

Next steps

• Six summary Locality Profiles• Comparator tables across 6 areas• Profiles made available on CPP web pages• Downloadable PDFs on new website