arria formula responsibility to prepareshe is also co-chair of the climate and security advisory...

December 15th, 2017 3-6 pm

UNHQ Ecosoc Chamber

ArriaFormula“Preparingforsecurityimplica4onsofrisingtemperatures”

In2017,anumberofextremeeventsrelatedto rising temperatures and deple:on ofnatural resources, triggered by risingtemperatures and climate change, havethreatened the security of millions ofpeople, from the devasta:ng and deadlyhurricanes in the US and several Caribbeanislands to the deathly famines in Nigeria,Somalia, South Sudan and Yemen, all areasaffected by conflict. Rising sea levels in thePacific are posing a direct threat to islandsandtheirpopula:ons.

As the Secretary-General, AntonioGuterres,argued during his speech at NYU last May,“Climate change is a direct threat in itselfandamul2plierofmanyotherthreats-frompoverty to displacement to conflict. Theeffects of climate change are already being

felt around the world. They are dangerousandaccelera2ng”.

2017 marks the tenth anniversary of firstSecurity Council ministerial-level opendebateon the rela:onshipbetweenenergy,securityandclimate,whichwasconvenedbythe UK and included a briefing by thenSecretary-General Ban Ki-moon. Since then,climate-induced security threats havebecome more pressing and there is anurgentneedtobringclimatechangealso totheSecurityCouncil’sagenda.

Animportantmilestonewastheadop:onofSecurity Council resolu:on 2349 (2017) lastMarch, inwhich theSecurityCouncil clearlyrecognized the adverse effects of climatechangeonstabilityintheLakeChadregion.

TheSecurityCouncilalsoemphasizedt h e n e ed f o r a d e qu a t e r i s kassessments and risk managementstrategies with regards to theseeffects. As such, there is a growingd e m a n d f o r e a r l y w a r n i n gmechanisms addressing climaterelatedsecurityrisks.

Cl imate-related disasters haveincreased in number andmagnitude.Over the past decade, more than700,000 people lost their lives, over1.4 mil l ion were injured, andapprox imate ly 23 mi l l ion arehomeless as a result of naturaldisasters. Notoriously the regions

most affected by climate change arethe Arc:c, Africa, the Americas, theMediterranean region, which isc o n s i d e r e d b y t h e s c i e n:fi ccommunity an “hotspot” of climatechange, and Small IslandsDeveloping

States (SIDS) as well as denselypopulated Asian and African megadeltas.Eightof theworld's10 largestci:esarenearacoastand40%oftheworld’s popula:on live in rela:velyhigh-popula:on-densitycoastalareas.A l so, people l i v ing in f rag i lemo u n t a i n o u s e c o s y s t em s i ndeveloping countries are par:cularlyvulnerabletoclimatechangeandfoodinsecurity. Climate change inducedmigra:on increasingly challengessocial systems and regional stability.Environmentalmigrants and refugeeswill increasingly shape the humangeographyoftheplanet.

The impact of rising temperatures isalready affec:ng every country tovariousextentsanditwillcon:nuetodisrupt economies and deprive thelivelihoodsofbillionsofpeopleduetochangingweatherpacerns, rising sealevels,lossofland,andmoreextremeweather events. Droughts, floods orwa te r s c a r c i t y c an gene ra te

humanitarian crises, unrest andconflict. Such instances have becomeincreasingly common and moredevasta:ng, resul:ng in the reversalof development gains even incountries with significant levels ofsocio-economic progress. And as theeffects of climate change becomemore severe , they become amul:plierofvariouscrises.197 par:es have recognized theclimatethreatandhavecommicedtoaddress it by signing the ParisAgreement and taking ac:on to limitglobal warming. And to date 170countries have already ra:fied it,allowing for itsearlyentry into force.In parallel to these commitments tomi:gate emissions and adapt toclimate change, we have to sustainpeace and invest in well-informedconflict preven:on that limits thethreats to security posed by climatechange.

On 30October 2017, in a briefing tothe Security Council, the Secretary-General described how poverty andclimate change have contributed tohumanitarian and security crises inthe Sahel, and how the weaki n s : t u : o n s , e x c l u s i o n a n dmarginaliza:on of some groups areexploitedbyextremistsandterrorists.

The interna:onal community has anincreasing responsibility to prepareand develop capabili:es to becerforesee, understand and respond toclimate-relatedsecurityrisks.

Applying the principle of ‘climateproofing’wouldentailmainstreaming,integra:ng, ins:tu:onalizing andcomprehensively raising awarenessabout climate and security issues.With Presiden:al Statement S/PRST/2011/15, the Security Counci lrequested that the Secretary-General

ensure that his repor:ng to theC o u n c i l c o n t a i n c o n t e x t u a linforma:on on possible securityimplica:ons of climate change,whenit becomes a driver of conflict orrepresent a cha l lenge to theimplementa:on of Council mandateso r e ndange r t h e p ro ce s s o fconsolida:on of peace. However, atpresent,thereisnoins:tu:onalhomeforaddressingclimate-relatedsecurityrisksintheUNsystem.

GuidingQues:onsHowcouldthetaskderivingfromthe2011 Presiden:al Statement of theSecurity Council be promoted andreinforcedwithin the UN system andbeyond?How can the Security Council,benefi:ng theUnitedNa:onsSystematlarge,becomemoreconsistentandeffec:ve in the assessment of newsecurity risks generated by climatechange?How can we becer prepare to avoiddestabi l i z ing phenomena withpoten:ally global implica:ons (e.g.sea level rise, droughts, floods,natural disasters), and mi:gate theeffects of such phenomena (e.g.climate induced migra:on, foodinsecurity, economic loss, increasedsocial andeconomic stress causedbyurbaniza:on, fight over scarceresources) thatwill trigger or furtheraggravate poli:cal strife, unrest andconflict?How can the Security Council use itsunique role within the UN system toprevent climate change-inducedconflicts?

BriefersHalbe Zijlstra, Minister of ForeignAffairsoftheNetherlandsCaitlin E. Werrel, Co-Founder &President of The Center for ClimateandSecurity,Washington

She is also Co-Chair of the Climate and Security Advisory Group. She leads theCenter’s policy development, analysis and research programs, and facilitates theprimary forum for climate and security dialogue in the U.S. na:onal securitycommunity.Shehaswricenandpublishedextensivelyonthesecurityimplica:onsofclimate change, water stress and natural resource mismanagement in Syria andNorthAfrica,includingintheseminalreport“TheArabSpringandClimateChange,”and in the SAIS Review of Interna:onal Affairs, as well as the poten:al for newtechnologies like addi:vemanufacturing for addressing climate risks. Her primaryresearch interests include climate change, water policy and interna:onal security.She has spent over a decade inves:ga:ng the intersec:on of security, naturalresources, conflict and coopera:on. Caitlin has experience in interna:onal anddomes:cclimateandwaterpolicy, includingasco-founderoftheMAPIns:tuteforWater&Climate,aSeniorAssociateatADPartners,andasDirectorofInterna:onalPrograms at EDN. Caitlin has wricen for the SAIS Review of Interna:onal Affairs,Angle Journal, Defense News, the Reuters Founda:on, the Na:onal Journal, theBulle:nofAtomicScien:sts,ClimateProgressande-Interna:onalRela:ons,andhasbeen cited by the New York Times, theWashington Post, the New Republic, USAToday,CNN’sChris:aneAmanpour,theChris:anScienceMonitor,Slate,theTorontoStarandtheAtlan:c,amongothers.Sheholdsamaster’sdegreefromtheUniversityofOxford,whereshefocusedontransboundarywaterissues,concludingwithafieldstudy on water conflict and coopera:on in Cyprus. Caitlin also holds a BA inEnvironmental Poli:cs from Mount Holyoke College. Caitlin also serves on theadvisory board of theNuclear SecurityWorking Group and the Planetary SecurityIni:a:ve.

BorninOosterwolde,21January1969.DegreeincommercialeconomicmanagementfromtheHanzeUniversityofAppliedSciencesinGroningen.DegreeinsociologyfromtheUniversityofGroningen(1966)Aper gradua:ng, he worked as an account manager at Arval, a vehicle leasingcompany.In1999hemovedtoAc:vityProjectManagementServicesinDriebergen.In2001hesetuphisownbusiness(Improvex,aprojectmanagementconsultancy),numberingShellamonghisclients.From1998to2001andfrom2003to2006hewasamemberofUtrechtmunicipalcouncil for theVVD,and leaderof theVVDgroup in thecouncil from2004.Since2016MrZijlstrahasbeenamemberoftheWorldEconomicForum’sYoungPoli:calLeadersCommicee.On30November2006hebecameamemberof theHouseofRepresenta:ves forthe People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD). He was spokesman on arangeof issues, including immigra:on, integra:on, care andhigher educa:on.Hewas also a member of the parliamentary commicee inves:ga:ng educa:onalreform.From14October2010un:l5November2012hewasStateSecretaryforEduca:on,CultureandScienceintheRuce-Verhagengovernment.From1November2012to16March2017hewastheleaderoftheVVDparliamentaryparty.

HalbeZijlstra

MinisterofForeignAffairsoftheNetherlands

CaitlinWerrell

Co-Founder&PresidentoftheCenterforClimateandSecurity