back to the future….. european construction output 2005-7e june 2005 – euroconstruct data

Back to the future…..

European Construction Output

2005-7EJune 2005 – Euroconstruct data

Population of Europe 2001-2007Ein millions with annual % change

436

438

440

442

444

446

448

450

452

454

456

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

millions% chnge

Where are all the people?(451 million in 2004)

GermanyFranceItalyUKSpainOtherNordicEast

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

Irl E CH F N S UK I A SF B Nl Dk P Sl Cz D Pol H

European Population growth 2002-4 and 2005-7Ethree year annual average % growth

2002-42005-7

European Unemployment 2001-2007Ein millions with annual % rate

17

17

18

18

19

19

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

6.9

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.6

7.7

7.8

7.9

number% rate

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

Pol Sl D E F SF Cz I B P Nl H Dk S A Irl N CH UK

European Unemployment 2002-4 and 2005-7Ethree year annual average % rate

2002-20042005-2007

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

European Annual Consumer Price Inflation (%) 2002-2007E(cumulative averages for 19 countries together with individual highs and lows)

HighAverageLow

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

European Construction Prices (%) 2001-2007E(cumulative averages for 19 countries together with individual highs and lows)

HighAverageLow

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

Sl E H Irl I N Cz F P Pol SF B Dk S UK A CH D Nl

European Construction Prices in 2002-4 and 2005-7Ethree year annual average % growth

2002-20042005-2007

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

European Long Term Interest Rates (%)(cumulative averages for 19 countries together with individual highs and lows)

HighAverageLow

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Pol H N UK Dk P D E F S Irl Sl B Nl I SF A Cz CH

European Long Term Interest Rates 2002-4 and 2005-7Ethree year annual average % rates

2002-20042005-2007

European Total Gross Fixed Capital Formation (FGF)in Euro billions with annual % change

1750

1800

1850

1900

1950

2000

2050

2100

2150

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

FCF% chnge

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

European Construction's share of FGF 2001-2007EEuro billions

FGFCon.

European Construction FGF 2001-2007EEuro billions with annual % change

1020

1040

1060

1080

1100

1120

1140

1160

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Con.% chnge

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

Pol S Dk Sl E Nl B P Cz F UK A CH I SF N Irl H D

European Construction FGF in 2002-04 and 2005-07Ethree year annual average % changes

2002-20042005-2007

European GDP 2001-2007Ein Euro trillions with annual % change

9

9

10

10

10

10

10

11

11

11

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

GDP% chge

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

Sl Pol Irl H Cz SF S UK E A B Dk N Av. F Nl CH P D I

European GDP growth 2002-4 and 2005-7Ethree year annual average % growth

2002-42005-7

European Construction Output 2001-2007FEuro billions and annual % change

1100

1120

1140

1160

1180

1200

1220

1240

1260

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

-0.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Output% chnge

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

Composition of Activity 2001-2007FEuro billions

HouseHRMIBuildBRMICivilsCRMI

Growth Rates by Type of Activity 2001-2007F (%)

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

HouseHRMIBuildBRMICivilsCRMI

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

Pol Cz H B S Sl E Nl P Dk UK CH A F SF N I Irl D

European Construction growth 2002-4 and 2005-7E three year annual % growth

2002-42005-7

0

50

100

150

200

250

Germany France UK Italy Spain

Germany & 'Next Big 4' Construction Output 2001-2007E Euro billions

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Netherlands Switzerland Austria Belgium Ireland Portugal

Other European Countries Construction Output 2001-2007E Euro billions

0

5

10

15

20

25

Demark Finland Norway Sweden

Nordic Construction Output 2001-2007E Euro billions

0

5

10

15

20

25

Poland Czechia Hungary Slovakia

Eastern European Construction Output 2001-2007E Euro billions

Total, German & 'All Other European' Construction Output 2001-2007E

(Annual % changes)

-7.0

-6.0

-5.0

-4.0

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007EGermanyAll otherTotal

'Next Big 4': France, Italy, Spain & UK 2001-2007E (Annual % changes)

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

FranceItalySpainUK

Nordic: Denmark, Finland, Norway & Sweden 2001-2007E (Annual % changes)

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

DenmarkFinlandNorwaySweden

'Other' 1: Austria, Switzerland & Portugal 2001-2007E (Annual % changes)

-10.0

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

AustriaSwitzerlandPortugal

'Other' 2: Belgium, Ireland & The Netherlands 2001-2007E(Annual % changes)

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

BelgiumIrelandNetherlands

East: Czechia, Slovakia, Hungary & Poland 2001-2007E (Annual % changes)

-10.0

-5.0

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005E 2006E 2007E

SlovakiaHungaryCzechiaPoland

Summary: the Big 5

• Spain is pick of the bunch with average annual growth of 3.2% pa in 2005-7

• UK is runner up with 2.4%

• France is at sub-2% and fades over period

• Italy is growing by less than 1% pa

• Germany is still negative this year and next but ‘recovery’ is set for 2007 (1.3%)

Summary: ‘Other’

• Belgium leads with 5.2% pa growth in 2005-7, thanks to a bumper 2005

• Netherlands & Portugal set for recovery at 2.5-3.0% pa; the latter very strong in 2007

• Austria & Switzerland steady at c2.0% pa

• But Ireland fades rapidly and goes negative in 2007

Summary: Nordic

• Sweden is set for a mini boom at 4.3% per annum in 2005-7

• Denmark good at 2.4% (strong in 2007)

• In Finland, after bumper 2005, growth is only marginal in 2006 and 2007

• Norway: grew at nearly 10% in 2004; this year forecast 3.7% but negative by 2007

Summary: East

• Poland is the runway winner at 8.1% per annum 2005-7

• Second is Czechia at 6.0% pa…

• …and in third place Hungary at 5.5%

• Slovakia is no slouch either at 4.2%

• In total, Euro 10 billion of new work in the region in 2005-7(at today’s prices)

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

Pol Cz H B Sl S E Nl P Dk UK CH A F SF N I Irl D

European Construction: average per annum growth 2005-7

the independent strategic advisor to the building materials, construction &

support services sectors

Contact: Anthony J Williams

Telephone: 01394 411 264awilliams@buildingvalueltd.com

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