baltimore’s forecast – a lot hotter, somewhat wetter, and … change... · 2020. 1. 30. ·...

Baltimore’s Forecast – A Lot Hotter, Somewhat

Wetter, and Preparing for Both: The Baltimore

and Maryland Strategies for Climate Change

Clifford S. Mitchell, MS, MD, MPH

Director, Environmental Health Bureau

Prevention and Health Promotion Administration

September 17, 2014

Baltimore, MD

Goals of Meeting

• Recap of the project goals and current status

• Discuss what Baltimore City should expect from DHMH

– Types of products

• Review climate forecasts and health data

• Discuss set priorities for composing interventions

MarylandDepartment of Health and Mental Hygiene

Maryland Public HealthClimate Change Strategy

Local health department

University of MarylandSchool of Public Health

Regional Climate Change Forecast

Vulnerability assessment

Disease burden projections

Intervention option 1

Intervention option 2

Intervention option 3

Adaptation plandevelopment and implementation

Evaluation

Disease/OutcomeBurden Estimates

Injuries and temperature-related

health events

Respiratory diseases

Food borne illnesses

Vector borne disease

Develop and Evaluate Interventions

Water borne illness and

injuries

Climate Forecast/ Vulnerability Assessment

Develop Maryland Public Health Climate Change

Strategy

Maryland Climate Change

Action Plan

Evaluation, Feedback, Dissemination

Maryland Environmental Public Health

Tracking

Local Public Health Department Mini-grants

• Enable public health professionals in local health departments (LHDs) to utilize climate forecast projections

• Help LHDs implement climate mitigation and/or adaptation strategies necessary to protect public health

• Evaluate the mitigation and/or adaptation strategy used to determine the quality of improvement and to incorporate refined inputs

Local Public Health Department Projects

Local Priorities

BASELINE HEALTH STATISTICS

Provided by

Ann Liu, PhD, MPH

‹#›

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

Population

-220,000 -120,000 -20,000 80,000 180,000 280,000

Total

Female

Male

% Race/Ethnicity

-4.0 -3.0 -2.0 -1.0 0.0 1.0 2.0

White/Caucasian

Black/African American

Hispanic/Latino

Asian/Pacific Islander

OtherBaltimore City

Maryland

Baltimore City

Maryland

‹#›

% Population Aged Household Income

-4.0 -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

0 - 14

15 - 24

25 - 44

45 - 64

65+

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

Median Household Income

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

Baltimore City

Maryland

Baltimore City

Maryland

‹#›

Socioeconomic Status Crime Rate per 100,000 residents

-2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0

% Living in Poverty

% Unemployment

-3000.0 -2500.0 -2000.0 -1500.0 -1000.0 -500.0 0.0

Violent Crime

Property Crime

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

Baltimore City

Maryland

Baltimore City

Maryland

‹#›

Overall Health

Maternal/Child Health

1.6

1.6

-200.0 -150.0 -100.0 -50.0 0.0 50.0

Life Expectancy at Birth

All-Cause Mortality*

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 2

Birth Rate**

Infant Mortality Rate**

% Low Birth Weight

% Blood Lead Cases

*Rate per 100,000 residents **Rate per 1,000 births

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

Baltimore City

Maryland

Baltimore City

Maryland

-60

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

Heart d

isease

Can

cer

Cereb

rovascu

lar disease

Ch

ron

ic low

er respirato

ryd

isease

Diab

etes mellitu

s

Accid

ents

Influ

enza an

d p

neu

mo

nia

Septicem

ia

Alzh

eimer's d

isease

HIV

Mortality

Baltimore City Maryland

Rate per 100,000 residents

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

-400.0

-200.0

0.0

200.0

400.0

600.0

800.0

1000.0

1200.0

1400.0

Acu

te myo

cardial in

farction

Asth

ma

All can

cer incid

ence (2

00

5-

20

08

)

Total in

juries

(ho

spitalizatio

ns)

Total in

juries (ED

visits)

Mo

tor veh

icle inju

ries(h

osp

italization

s)

Mo

tor veh

icle inju

ries (EDvisits)

Natu

ral enviro

nm

ent

(ho

spitalizatio

ns)

Natu

ral enviro

nm

ent (ED

visits)

Lyme d

isease

Rab

ies

Morbidity

Baltimore City Maryland

N/A N/A

Demographic and Social Determinants of Health (Δ 2005-2000)

*Rate per 100,000 residents

CLIMATE CHANGE FORECASTS

Provided by University of Maryland School of Public Health

Amir Sapkota, PhD

Chengsheng Jiang, PhD

Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge o

f N

um

be

r o

f D

ays

Annual

Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge o

f N

um

be

r o

f D

ays

Spring

Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation

Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge o

f N

um

be

r o

f D

ays

Summer

Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation

Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge o

f N

um

be

r o

f D

ays

Autumn

Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation

Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

'06-'10 '16-'20 '26-'30 '36-'40 '46-'50 '56-'60

Mo

nth

ly A

vera

ge o

f N

um

be

r o

f D

ays

Winter

Hot Days Cold Days Precipitation

Climate Forecasts (10th Percentile)

PUTTING IT ALL TOGETHER

• In what way can the data be used to develop a set of priorities and interventions based on those priorities?

• What is the process by which Baltimore City can complete the objectives?

• Who are some community partners that are: 1. Interested in climate change 2. Vulnerable populations that lack foresight 3. Health cares systems and health providers 4. Business community 5. Academic community

Distributions of Yearly Extreme Events from 1979 to 2060

‹#›

October ‘14 January ‘15 April ‘15 July ‘15

Title Title Title Title

• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4

• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4

• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4

• List of activities • Bullet 1 • Bullet 2 • Bullet 3 • Bullet 4

Ou

tco

mes

• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3

• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3

• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3

• Outcome 1 • Outcome 2 • Outcome 3

Timeline

Thank you!

Closing Remarks