bar-ecore wp3: population distributions. bar-ecore kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – wp3: population...

Bar-EcoReWP3: Population distributions

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution

Objective of WP3:

investigate the effects of future climatic conditions and other environmental or human stressors on the spatial distribution of Barents Sea plankton, benthos and fish populations.

2 components:

1. historical reconstructions and projections of climate scenarios

2. statistical spatial distribution models for plankton, benthos and fish populations

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

projecting spatial distributions

niche-based models

+

predicted spatial

distribution

environment

biol

ogic

al re

spon

se

climate forecast/scenario

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

A general view of the modelling method

adapted from Anderson, 2010

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Evaluating uncertainties

Scale(s)

adaptation

futureworld

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

uncertainties in conceptual models

spatial distribution

geographical attachment

environmental conditions

density dependent

habitat selection

spatial dependency

demographic structure

Persistence

species interactions

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Bar-EcoRe, WP3: Population distribution

Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution

Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution

Environmental conditions (climate,

habitat, pollution, etc.)

Environmental conditions (climate,

habitat, pollution, etc.)

Pops. History (demography, size, etc.)

Pops. History (demography, size, etc.)

Population distribution

models (PDMs)

Population distribution

models (PDMs)

Model evaluation & selection

Model evaluation & selection

PDMsPDMs

PAST POSSIBLE FUTURES

EnvironmentPop stateEnvironmentPop state

Pops. spatial distributionPops. spatial distribution

ClimateFishingClimateFishing

PDMsPDMs

ensemble modelling

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Past and Future climate & other stressors

Past ocean climate will come from historical Atlas of hydrographic conditions (FishExchange) for the period 1985+

Future climate will be derived from downscaled ocean climate simulations for the period 2051-2065

Other stressors will not be considered explicitely, but through their expected effects on populations (abundance, demographic structure,...)

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Activities

Year 1: Data & information assembly (past situations). Development of conceptual models. Experiment with existing tool-kits.

Year 2: Numerical formulation and coding for few species. Model evaluations and development of ensemble models. Climate model runs for 2051-2065.

Year 3: Extension of model development to ‘all’ species. Input of future climate and biological scenarios. Ensemble forecasts.

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Feasibility and limitations

Feasibility:

Statistical models for spatial distribution do exists (mostly terrestrial) and ready-made tools are currently available (ex: BIOMOD)

The statistical modelling activity will be carried out by a dedicated post-doc

Limitations:

Availability of adequate data (climate & biological)

Availability of adequate information (e.g. species interactions) to construct the models

Time needed for developing and coding models outside existing tools

Computing time for complex ensemble modelling

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Connections to other WPs

WP1: Community

structure

WP2: Trophic

interaction

WP4: Resilience

& Early warning

Past climate & climate models

data an

d conce

ptsmodelled distributions

WP3: Population distribution

Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions Bar-EcoRe kick-off meeting 15/06/2010 – WP3: population distributions

Thank you