berton hamamoto (b), abr, crb, crs, cfp property profiles inc

Berton Hamamoto (B), ABR, CRB, CRS, CFP

Property Profiles Inc.

Did YOU miss the boat??

Metric % change from one year ago

Comment

NARMedian Price

+ 11.3% (September)

Mix of homes impact price … fewer distressed sales recently …

Case-Shiller +2.0% (June, July,

August average)

Lagging indicator

Near double-digit on an annualized basis in recent months

FHFA + 4.7% (August)Monthly gains in 9 of recent 10 months

Distressed Sales Market Share

2010 … 33%

2011 … 33%

2012 … 25%

2013 … 15%

2014 … 8%

2015 … 5%

Source: Case-Shiller

Island Single Family

Condo

Oahu + 7.8% ($620,000)

+5.8% ($317,500)

Maui +9.0%($ 470,000)

+16.0%($358,995)

Kauai + 0.55% ($457,500)

+ 26.97% ($289,500)

Big Island + 5.26% ($260,000)

+21.88% ($259,000)

Statistics provided by HBR, HIS & RAM

2012 % chg from 2011Jan 2012 - 9.3%

February - 4.9%

March -12.1%April - 19.4%

May -19.5%

June -15.9%

July -19.3%

Aug -20.7%

September -19.7%

October -24.9%

November -21.0%

December -18.4%

2012 % chg from 2011Jan 2012 - 7.8%

February - 6.4%

March -10.1%April - 7.4%

May - 7.0%

June -11.3%

July -12.5%

Aug - 8.7%

September -14.3%

October -12.1%

November -16.5%

December -13.5%

Statistics provided by HBR

Category % chg ytd 2012

Unit sales + 6.5%Median price + 7.8%

($620k)Inventory - 18.4%Pending sales + 81.5%Months supply - 47.9%

(2.5mo)Days on Market

- 14.3% (30 days)

Statistics provided by HBR

Category Annual % chgUnit sales + 8.2%Median price + 5.8%

($317.5k)Inventory - 13.5%Pending sales + 63.8%Months supply - 40.0%

(3.0mo)Days on Market

- 50.0% (41 days)

Statistics provided by HBR

Neighborhood

Annual % chg

Kailua/Waimanalo

+2.0% $794,500

Hawaii Kai - 3.0% $880,000

Mililani nc $590,000

Pearl City/ Aiea +2.0% $583,750

Ewa Plain +5.0% $460,400

Makaha / Nanakuli

+11.0% $315,000

Statistics provided by HBR

Neighborhood

Annual % chg

Ala Moana area + 1.0% $355,000

Hawaii Kai + 3.0% $525,000

Mililani +14.0% $289,000

Pearl City/ Aiea + 1.0% $275,000

Ewa Plain + 3.0% $310,000

Waikiki +28.0% $365,000

North Shore + 5.0% $300,000

2011History

2012Forecast

2013Forecast

2014Forecast

GDP Growth +1.8% +2.1% +2.5% 3.1%

Existing Home Sales

4.26 million 4.64 million 5.05 million 5.3 million

New Home Sales

301,000 368,000 575,000 650,000

Housing Starts

612,000 776,000 1,128,000 1,300,000

Existing Home Price

$166,100 $176,100 $ 185,200 $195,000

Fed Funds Rate

0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%

30-yr Mortgage

4.7% 3.7% 4.0% 4.6%

Higher home prices 10%– 15% in some neighborhoods

Little inventory added to market will decrease supply

Rents will increase due to competition for housing

Investors increasing share of market

2009 - $340,0002011 - $ 360,000 – $370,0002012 - $405,000 - $410,000 (+20%)

Upside … Credit AvailabilityHousing recovery up so far even with tight creditWhat happens if mortgage accessibility opens up?Demand outpacing supply

Downside … Washington PolicyQRM 20% down payment requirement?Basel 3 … capital rule that punishes private

mortgage with low down payment and commercial loans

Trim mortgage interest deduction?Capital gains tax on home sale?

Still time to buy…BUT YOU WANT TO BUY

NOW!!!!!!!Talk to a REALTOR