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Bomet, Muranga, Nandi and Siaya 9th March 2017

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Table of Contents

TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling

Bomet

Muranga

Nandi

Siaya

Observations

TIFA’s Track Record in Opinion Polling

4

Professional Memberships

TIFA Research got it right in the Malindi by-election

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Opinion Poll Findings

• The objectives of the county public opinion poll surveys were as follows;

• To assess the political party affiliation in each county.

• To identify the most popular candidates in each county for the following seats;

• Governor;

• Senator and;

• Women Representative.

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Survey Objectives

Bomet County

Bomet: Methodology

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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017

Location Bomet County

Target Both males and females aged 18+ years

Data

collection

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households

Sample Size 660

Margin of Error +/- 4%

11

Bomet: Political Party Preference

Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

71%

15%

6% 1% 1% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jubilee Party Chama ChaMashinani

NASA Maendeleo ChapChap

KANU Undecided

Base = 660

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Bomet: Governor Candidate Preference

44%

32%

19%

6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Issac Rutto Joyce Laboso Dr Julius Kones Undecided

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?

Base = 660 CCM Jubilee Party Jubilee Party

45%

24% 20%

3% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Undecided Nick Salat Prof WilfredLesan

StacyChepkemoi

WakiliKoskei

RobinsonKigen

PaulChirchir

KigenRobinson

KemeiEnock

EnockKemei

PaulChirchir

ChristopherLangat

13

Bomet: Senator Candidate Preference

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?

KANU Jubilee

Base = 660

Prof Wilfred Lesan is the incumbent

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Bomet: Women Rep Candidate Preference

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?

48%

14% 13% 12%

3% 2% 2% 1% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Undecided CeciliaChelangat

Ngetich

Joyce Korir BeatriceChebomui

CeciliaMutai

HellenTaplilei

Alice Milgo DorothyChep

StecyChepkemoi

PatriciaLasoi

MadamCeciliaRotuk

FlorenceKorir

Incumbent vying for MP of Sotik

Base = 660

Muranga County

Muranga: Methodology

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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017

Location Muranga County

Target Both males and females aged 18+ years

Data

collection

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households

Sample Size 500

Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence

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Muranga: Demographics

50%

50%

22%

29%

17%

11%

7%

14%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%

Male

Female

18-24 years

25 – 30 years

31 – 35 years

36 – 40 years

40 – 45 years

46+ years

Base = 500

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Muranga: Political Party Preference

Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

88%

4% 4% 1% 1% 1% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jubilee Party NASA MaendeleoChap Chap

PNU NARC KENYA Undecided Others

Base = 500

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Muranga: Governor Candidate Preference

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?

48%

34%

6% 10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Mwangi wa Iria Jamleck Kamau Dr Moses Mwangi Undecided

Base = 500

Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee

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Muranga: Senator Candidate Preference

43%

31%

18%

4% 2% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Kembi Gitura Irungu Kangata Undecided Elias Mbau Others Calaghan Mwangi

Base = 500

Jubilee Jubilee

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?

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Muranga: Women Representative Candidate Preference

70%

15% 13%

2% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Sabina Wanjiru Chege Undecided Waithira Muithirania Mama Sacco

Base = 500

Jubilee Jubilee

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?

Nandi County

Nandi: Methodology

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Dates February 2017

Location Nandi County

Target Both males and females aged 18+ years

Data

collection Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households

Sample Size 700 respondents aged 18+ years

Margin of Error +/- 4% at 95% confidence

25

Nandi: Political Party Preference

Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

Base =700

88%

7% 2% 2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Jubilee Party NASA None Undecided Maendeleo Chap Chap

1. Cleophas Lagat – Incumbent , and previously Principal, Eldoret polytechnic

2. Henry Kosgey - Former Minister in Moi and Kibaki’s Government

3. Felix Koskei - Former Cabinet Secretary in Jubilee Government

4. Stephen Sang – Incumbent Senator

5. Silas Kipruto – Baringo County Ex-Director for Finance

6. Abraham Mutai - Former Athlete & Athletics Kenya Regional Official

7. Alphonse Kirwa - OIe Lessos College Principal

8. Barnabas Sang - Uasin Gishu ICT Executive

9. Serem Kibet Anderson - Engineer

10. Peter Kipkemboi Maiyo - a former manager at Eastern Produce Company.

11. Stephen Tarus – Diplomat and ex-MP

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11 Aspirants for Jubilee Party Ticket

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Nandi: Governor Candidate Preference

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?

36%

21% 18% 18%

3% 2% 2% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

HenryKosgey

Felix Koskei CleophasLagat

Undecided BarnabasSang

StephenTarus

Others AbrahamMutai

Incumbent Governor is Cleophas Lagat

Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Base =700

Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee

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Nandi: Senator Candidate Preference

50%

14%

4% 8%

24%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Stephen Sang Kiprotich Cherargei Elvis Langas Others Undecided

Base =700

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?

24% 22% 20% 17%

9% 4% 2% 1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Zipporah KurgatKering

Undecided Tecla Tum TheresaChepkwony

Selina Rotich Bernadette Tiony Esther Letting Mary Lucy Kurgat

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Nandi: Women Representative Candidate Preference

Base =700

Zipporah Kurgat is the incumbent

Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee Jubilee

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?

Siaya County

Siaya: Methodology

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Dates 15th to 19th February 2017

Location Siaya County

Target Both males and females aged 18+ years

Data

collection

Face to face interviews, respondents sampled from households

Sample Size 350

Margin of Error +/- 5% at 95% confidence

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Siaya: Political Party Preference

Q. Which political party do you feel closest to?

97%

2% 1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

NASA Jubilee Party Undecided

Base = 350

40%

29%

20%

4% 4% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Cornel RasangaAmoth

William Oduol Gumbo Nicolas O. Carey Orege Undecided James Orengo

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Siaya: Governor Candidate Preference

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Governor?

Base = 350 ODM ODM ODM ODM ODM

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Siaya: Senator Candidate Preference

87%

5% 8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

James Orengo Agnes Awour Undecided

ODM

Base = 350

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Senator?

Independent

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Siaya: Women Representative Candidate Preference

67%

26%

7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka Undecided Florence Akinyi Aluodo

Base = 350

Dr Christine Oduor Ombaka is the incumbent

ODM ODM

Q. If elections were to be held today, whom would you vote for as Women Representative?

Observations

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Observations

• The political party nominations scheduled for March/April 2017 and this

is likely to affect the final list of candidates for each political seat. There

has been calls for strong candidates to be given automatic nominations

tickets.

• The party nominations expected to be competitive and they could also lead to fall outs. This is because there are a number of strong candidates vying for one seat under the same party.

• Party hopping law - The high court temporarily suspended the implementation of a law that stops politicians from party hopping.

• The expected rise and rise parties not in the major coalitions such as PNU, Mandeleo Chap Chap KANU, Chama Cha Mashinani that are giving strong candidates an alternative.

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Observations

• Strong candidate abandoning their seats - popular Senators and MP will need to work harder to convince voters that they can be Governors or Senators.

• Undecided voters – the proportion is high and this because the final list of candidate is not clear. Voters will eventually make up their minds as we move closer to the elections.

Maggie Ireri

Managing Director maggie.Ireri@tifaresearch.com

TIFA Research Ltd

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P O Box 59629, 00200 Nairobi, Kenya.

+254 205 20 22 91 +254 728 40 60 85

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