bot retreat april 2013 final2
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Focus on the FutureUSM Board of Trustees’
Retreat
Looking BackToday’s ConditionsFocus on the Future
Overview
Then. Now. Tomorrow.
“History & Background
It is wisdom to pause, to look back and see by what straight or twisting paths we have arrived at the place we find ourselves.”
- Mother Xavier Ross
History & Background Fiscal Years 2000-2005
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 20050
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
Revenue Expenses
Expenditures exceededrevenues by $3.3 million.
Expenditures will exceedrevenues by $1.8 million.
Operating Results
FOCUS
2006 Strategic Plan
A new focus: Health Sciences and
Fiscal Stability
Health Sciences
2006 Strategic Plan
2006 Strategic Plan
Nursing Programs
Traditional on-campus BSN
RN-to-BSN
Accelerated BSN
MSN
Health Sciences
2006 Strategic Plan Health Sciences
Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '120
50
100
150
200
250
RN-to-BSNPre-nursingAccel. BSNUG Nursing
Nursing Programs Enrollment
2006 Strategic Plan
Stefani Doctor of Physical Therapy
Director Mark Horacek hired in August 2009
Health Sciences
Program granted CAPTE candidacy in May 2012.
2006 Strategic Plan
DPT Program Enrollment
Health Sciences
SU '12 SU '13 SU '140
20
40
60
80
100
120
Pro
ject
ed Pro
ject
ed
2006 Strategic Plan
Health Information Management (HIM)
Director Don Kellogg hired in March 2012
In accreditation candidacy status with CAHIIM (HIM program accrediting body)
Health Sciences
2006 Strategic Plan
HIM Program Enrollment
Health Sciences
Fall '12 Fall '13 Fall '1402468
101214161820
Pro
ject
ed
Pro
ject
ed
2006 Strategic Plan
Total Health Sciences Enrollment
Health Sciences
Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '120
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
RN-to-BSNPre-nursingUG NursingAccel. BSNDPTHIM
2006 Strategic Plan
Growth in Related Science Programs
Biology is now the second most popular major at USM, behind only nursing
Med School success stories: John Cothern and Tawana Evans
Health Sciences
Fiscal Stability
2006 Strategic Plan
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
Operating Results (FYE 2006-2013)
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
16,000,000
18,000,000
20,000,000
22,000,000
Revenue Expenses Special Gift
Expenditures exceededrevenues by $1.5 million.
Revenues exceededexpenditures by $447,000.
Expenditures will exceedrevenues by $1.1 million.
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
Undergraduate Main Campus Enrollment Growth
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
50100150200250300350400450500550
Fall Semester
FRESHMEN
NEW TRANSFERS
116 Freshmen
Total Full-Time, Main Campus Enrollment hasincreased by 181, or 50%, from Fall 2005 to 2012.
TOTAL
199 Total New Students
2006 Strategic Plan
Total EnrollmentFiscal Stability
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120
100200300400500600700800900
1,0001,1001,200
Fall Year
839
1,047993
1,073957
886
1,189
Doctorate
FT Undergraduate
PT UndergraduateOPC Grad
All Online
Online Program began in FYE 2007.
Total student headcount increased by 372, or 46%, from Fall 2005 to Fall 2012.
817
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
Other New Programs
Cheer & Dance – Nearly 20 new students
Cross Country/Track & Field – Over 30 new students
Online Programs
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
Online Programs Enrollment
Fall '09 Fall '10 Fall '11 Fall '12 Fall '130
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Pro
ject
ed
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
Fall 2012 Enrollment Populations
573
151
150
116
162
37
FT Undergraduate
PT Undergraduate
Online Undergraduate
OPC Graduate
Online Graduate
Doctorate
Full-Time Undergraduate enrollmentis about 48% of total enrollment for
the Fall 2012 Semester.
Graduates
Undergraduates
2006 Strategic PlanFiscal Stability
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 March 20130
1,000,0002,000,0003,000,0004,000,0005,000,0006,000,0007,000,0008,000,0009,000,000
10,000,00011,000,00012,000,00013,000,00014,000,00015,000,00016,000,00017,000,000
Restricted Unrestricted Transfer
The restricted endowment portion has in-creased from $6.1 million to $12.6 million,
or 107%, from FYE 2006 to March 2013 . $3.4 million
$16,407,221Endowment Growth
2006 Strategic PlanImproved Facilities
McGilley Field House
Berkel Residence Hall
New Construction
2006 Strategic PlanImproved FacilitiesRenovations
Mead HallNursingStudent Services
Berchmans Hall
Health Sciences
REFOCUS
2011 Strategic Plan
Health Sciences
Improved Retention
Facilities and Technology Infrastructure
2011 Strategic PlanImproved RetentionImproving Retention Rates
First-time Full-time FreshmenFall 2011 – 52%
Fall 2012 – 65%
Fall 2013 goal – 70%
2011 Strategic PlanImproved RetentionAthletes’ GPA
Athletes with a GPA above 3.0Fall 2010: 50%Fall 2012: 61%
Athletes with a GPA below 1.9Fall 2010: 15%Fall 2012: 8%
2011 Strategic PlanFacilities and
Technology InfrastructureBerchmans as Health Sciences
HeadquartersUtilizing ‘The Cloud’Classroom Technology
FOCUSon
TODAY
Current Environment
Massive Open Online Courses
MOOCs
MOOCs
What are they?New web-based tools/
“platforms”
What distinguishes them from traditional classes and makes them attractive?
Unlimited enrollment, name recognition, and cost – they are free!
MOOCs
Four Comments on Those Observations
1. The originators are not accrediting their own courses
2. The originators were individual professors
3. Remaining free is not going to be sustainable
4. The completion rate is between 5% and 10%
MOOCs
Three Explanatory Notes
1. Most are asynchronous2. A few are moving in a synchronous direction3. Completion rate at 5% to 10%
MOOCs
Who Are They?
CourseraedXUdacity
MOOCs
The Promise and the Apparent Reality of MOOCs
MOOCs will transform teaching and learning
“The revolution is not about IT. It is about teaching and learning.”
MOOCs
The Promise and the Apparent Reality of MOOCs
Although still a “moving target” and not fully matured, MOOCs are not proving to be a disrupter, but rather “just one spice among many online education spices.”
The challenge of picking what spice or spices to use
MOOCs
Who Are the Biggest Users of MOOCs?
People living outside the USAmong US students:– Non-traditional students
• Not enrolled in a degree program• Seeking to enhance their skills• Just intellectually curious
MOOCs
What Schools are Most Likely to be Affected, If Any?
Potentially most affected: small, marginal, independent colleges
Least likely: selective, well-established independent colleges
Somewhere in the middle: the publics, including community colleges
The California State University System Experiment
MOOCs
Some Unresolved IssuesWhere do MOOCs appear to be heading?
Political pressure to expand educational opportunities and contain costs – will MOOCs fill the bill?
The illusion of name brand
Future costs
MOOCs
Other Considerations
Employer ResponsesAccreditorsState Authorization
MOOCs
MOOCs May Already Be Yesterday’s News
A note on competency-based learning
What is it?What are its potential
advantages?Western Governors UniversitySouthern New Hampshire
UniversityWhat are the potential liabilities?
MOOCs
Recommended Resources
“What you need to know about MOOCs” on the Chronicle of Higher Education websitehttp://chronicle.com/article/What-You-Need-to-Know-About/133475
Current Environment
Starbucks, Wal-
Mart offer
classes – for
college credit— CNN Money | April 2013
Student Loan Bubble Putting Hundreds of Colleges at Risk— Business Insider | August 2012
Colleges take extreme cost-cutting measures— CNN Money | March 2012
Does It Still Make Sense to Borrow to Pay for College?— The Daily Ticker | April 2012
Student Loans Could be the Next Housing Bubble— Yahoo! Finance | March 2012
Some Schools Cut
Student Grants,
Scholarships — Wall Street Journal | July 2012
Strategic EnrollmentTraditional Enrollment
PlanningAnnual ScopeFocus on the Admissions Department
Administration
AthleticsAdmissions
Academics
Strategic Enrollment
FiscalPlan
Enrollment Plan
ResearchPlan
Facilities
Plan
Technology Plan
Fundraising Plan
Academic Plan
Student Affairs
Co-Curricular
Plan
MISSION
Strategic Enrollment
Welcome Rob Baird
The Imperative of Strategic Enrollment Planning
Rob BairdSenior Vice President and Principal
Why Plan?
What will be necessary to change in our enrollment processes, priorities and
systems to achieve our enrollment goals and respond to the institutional strategic
plan within an ever changing environment?
Increasing enrollment? Improving gross and net revenue? Filling under enrolled programs? Improving geographical representation? Improving diversity Improving retention Attracting better qualified students
(more likely to persist) Improving efficiency and effectiveness of operations? Determining and responding to program demand locally, regionally, and/or
nationally Improving awareness, image, and perception of the institution? Professional staff development and ongoing training in state-of-the-art enrollment
management practices? Introducing and enhancing the ‘breakthrough enrollment technologies and
systems?” Other
Key Questions to Consider
My institution has a written, long-range strategic enrollment plan
Percent of respondents in agreement
Type of institution YesYes and it’s of
excellent quality*
Four-year private 69.5% 18.0%
Four-year public 64.6% 23.1%
Two-year public 61.4% 4.5%
*Indicates the percentage of respondents who rated the quality of their plan “excellent” as opposed to “good,” “fair,” “poor,” or “no” (nonexistent)
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four-
Year and Two-Year Institutions
Nearly 40 years; 60+ consultants; 500 years experience; 2,700 campuses served
Noel-Levitz Partnership Funnel
Understanding the changing landscape
Six megatrends facing higher education
1 264
35
Enrollment growth will slow
Demographic shifts
Retention and completion pressures
will intensify
Changing economic model
Impact of technology on
communicating with students
Managing new learning modalities
Higher education’s compounded annual growth rates is expected to drop by 39
percent from 1.8 to 1.1 percent
5.6% 1.1%
1963-1980 1980-2009 2009-2020
1.8%
NCES Projections of Education Statistics to 2020 ( 2011); p. 62
We are at the beginning of a long slump for future freshman classes
4,200,000
4,300,000
4,400,000
4,500,000
4,600,000
2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022Data Source: Population Projections Branch of the U.S. Census Bureau
Projected Number of 18-Year Olds: United States
Asian White Hispanic African American$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
$70,000
$80,000 $75,486$68,961
$39,538 $38,500
Hispanic and African American families have median incomes that are approximately 57 percent of white
families
Trends in College Pricing, 2011. © 2011. The College Board.Reproduced with permission. www.collegeboard.com.
Projected percentage change in the number of public high school graduates, by state: School years 2007-08 through 2020-21
Source: IES
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.†† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.
Kansas: The competition factor32,289 high school seniors / 2012-13*
67 institutions of higher education**
64.7% college continuation rate (20,891)***(ranks 17th among states)
15.6% leave the state to go to college (3,262)****(ranks 31st among states)
Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen*****
Kansas State University 2,763
University of Kansas 2,467
Johnson County Community College 1,445
10,954 students ÷ 64 institutions = 171 students per institution††
Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, Knocking at the College Door, 2012**The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2012***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Chance for College by Age 19 by State 1986-2010, 2013****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration of College Freshmen 1986-2010, 2012*****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.†† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.
Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008**The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010
****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
Missouri: The competition factor65,304 high school seniors / 2011-12*
132 institutions of higher education**
60.0% college continuation rate (39,182)***(ranks 33rd among states)
17.7% leave the state to go to college (6,933)****(ranks 29th among states)
Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen*****
University of Missouri – Columbia 4,297
Missouri State University – Springfield 2,279
Ozarks Technical Community College 2,037
23,636 students ÷ 129 institutions = 183 students per institution††
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.†† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.
Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008**The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010
****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
Nebraska: The competition factor21,176 high school seniors / 2011-12*
43 institutions of higher education**
65.5% college continuation rate (13,870)***(ranks 18th among states)
19.1% leave the state to go to college (2,648)****(ranks 25th among states)
Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen*****
University of Nebraska – Lincoln 3,189
University of Nebraska at Omaha 1,539
Southeast Community College Area 1,082
5,412 students ÷ 40 institutions = 135 students per institution††
† In-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.†† Competition factor equals college continuation rate less number of students migrating and the three in-state institutions receiving the largest number of in-state freshmen.
Sources: *Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education, 2008**The Chronicle of Higher Education, 2010***Postsecondary Education Opportunity, 2010
****Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Interstate Migration Data, 2010 *****National Center for Education Statistics, IPEDS Fall Enrollment Survey (2010)
Texas: The competition factor279,129 high school seniors / 2011-12*
240 institutions of higher education**
56.9% college continuation rate (158,824)***(ranks 41st among states)
11.7% leave the state to go to college (18,617)****(ranks 40th among states)
Three Largest Institutions†***** Number of In-state Freshmen*****
Texas A & M University – College Station 7,809
The University of Texas at Austin 6,368
The University of Texas at San Antonio 4,721
121,309 students ÷ 237 institutions = 512 students per institution††
• 60 percent of all four-year institutions want larger freshman classes
• 56 percent of all four-year colleges want better freshman classes
• 52 percent want a more ethnically diverse student body
Institutions are facing never-ending expectations
Miles from home
5 or less 6 to 10 11 to 50 51 to 100 101 to 500 Over 5000.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
4.8%6.2%
26.3%
17.4%
31.4%
14.0%
© 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Percentage of students satisfied or very satisfied with their
overall experience
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 National Student Satisfaction and Priorities Report
Four-year privates
Four-year publics
Community colleges
Career schools48%
50%
52%
54%
56%
58%
60%
62%
57%
54%
61%
53%
College choice trends
Importance factors in the decision to enroll
Four-year private enrollment factors
Item 2009-10 Importance Percentage
1994-95 Importance Percentage
Shift
Financial aid 81.0% 75.9% 5.1%
Academic reputation 78.8% 78.9% -0.1%
Cost 74.3% 67.5% 6.8%
Personal attention prior to enrollment 64.6% 60.5% 4.1%
Geographic setting 57.4% 53.3% 4.1%
Campus appearance 57.4% 51.8% 5.6%
Size of institution 56.4% 65.1% -8.7%
Recommendations from family/friends 42.7% 39.9% 2.8%Opportunity to play sports 26.7% 24.6% 2.1%
© Noel-Levitz, Inc.The National Student Satisfaction and Priorities 15-Year Trend Report: Four-Year Private Colleges and Universities
What content matters most to them at this point?
1. A list of academic programs or degrees2. Cost/tuition/fees3. Academic program details4. Admissions requirements5. Financial aid6. Scholarships7. Student life8. Career options9. Student activities10. Ways to connect with admissions
© Noel-Levitz, Inc.E-Expectations 2010: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
Impact of the economic crisis on student college planning
• 46% report that the current economic crisis has caused them to reconsider the schools to which they apply or
may attend (up from 34% last year)
– Avoiding private school options—26% (11%)– Commuting instead of living on campus—25% (13%)– Working while going to school—25% (21%)– Attending a community or technical college—19% (21%)– Vo-tech instead of traditional—4% (2%)– Part-time attendance instead of full-time—1% (7%)– Not attending college at all—1% (2%)
© Noel-Levitz, Inc.E-Expectations Report: Focusing Your E-Recruitment Efforts to Meet the Expectations of College-Bound Students
What is the highest academic degree you intend to obtain?
None Vocational certificate
AA BA, BS MA, MS PhD or EdD MD, DO, DDS, DVM
JD BD or MDIV
Other0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
45.0%
1.0% 0.1% 0.4%
21.4%
42.0%
19.1%
10.2%
4.2%0.2% 1.3%
© 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Number of other colleges applied to for admission this year
None 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 to 10 11 or more
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
14.0%
16.0%
18.0%
12.2%
8.8%
11.7%
14.7%13.3%
10.5%
7.9%
16.4%
4.6%
© 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
The college attended is the student’s…
First choice Second choice Third choice Less than third choice
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
57.9%
27.0%
9.7%5.5%
© 2012 The Regents of the University of California. All Rights Reserved.
Can you think of a specific school you have taken off your list because of the experience you had with the Web site?
Why pay close attention to your Web site?
Yes 24%Noel-Levitz, E-Expectations survey of 1,043 college-bound seniors ©2010
Approximate cost to maintain admissions Web presence
© 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2012 E-Recruiting Practices and Trends at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Mobile gap
52% of college-bound students have looked at a college Web site
on a mobile phone or tablet
Less than 40% of colleges offer Web sites that are optimized
for mobile browsing
© 2012 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2012 E-Recruiting Practices and Trends at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Benchmarks for Admissions and Marketing
Effective search campaigns include multiple contacts. Sending a search mailer and waiting for a
response typically does not work with today’s prospective students.
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Marketing and Student Recruitment Practices at Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Cost to recruit a single student
*Limited sample size for this sector.
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$1,364
$342$37
$2,185
$457
$108
$3,172
$642
$313
25th percentile Median cost 75th percentile
Median number of new students enrolled per FTE employee in recruitment or admissions
*Limited sample size for this sector
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
33
117
328
Median number of new students enrolled per FTE outreach employee
*Limited sample size for this sector.
© 2011 Noel-Levitz, Inc.2011 Cost of Recruiting an Undergraduate Student: Benchmarks for Four-Year and Two-Year Institutions
Four-year private Four-year public Two-year public*0
100
200
300
400
500
600
57
256
533
Marketing and Recruitment Plan
Develop annual and long-range as well as retention and recruitment plans – for each market segment
What is What is strategic
enrollment planning (SEP)?
Strategic Enrollment Planning …
• Involves the campus in identifying, prioritizing, implementing, evaluating, and modifying enrollment strategies and goals within a changing environment in order to effectively and efficiently : Realize the institution’s mission and vision, andSupport the institution’s capabilities to recruit and
maximally serve students currently and in the future.
Effective organization models
Strategic plan
Mission
Vision
Institutional Effectiveness
Strategic Enrollment Plan
KPI
Strategies
Enrollment Goals
Annual PlansMarketing Recruitment
Success and Completion
(PPRC/G)
The value of not planning
The nicest thing about not planning is that failure comes as a complete surprise and is not preceded by a period of worry and depression.
“
“
John PrestonBoston College
How does the strategic enrollment planning model differ from the traditional planning model?
Strategic Planning=
Align organization withits environment
to promote stabilityand survival
Traditional Planning=Set goals thendevelop steps toachieve those goals
• Provides realistic quantifiable goals• Uses a return-on-investment (ROI) and
action item approach• Aligns the institution’s mission, current
state, and changing environment to foster planned long-term enrollment and fiscal health
Strategic enrollment planning is continuous and data-informed
Connects your goals to:
• Product (academic, co-curricular, services, support)
• Place (on-site, off-site, online, hybrid)• Price and Revenue (tuition, fees, discounts,
incentives)• Promotion (marketing, recruitment,
Web presence)• Purpose and Identity (mission, distinctiveness,
brand)• Process (data-informed,
integrated planning)
Strategic enrollment planning
Integration of all elements of SEM as part of the development of a Strategic Enrollment
Management PlanSEP
• Academic Plans
• Marketing Plan
• Student Success Plan
• Recruitment Plan
Target new student
enrollment goals or new market
penetrationPPRC/G
Start, Grow, Maintain, Eliminate programs
Linking internal and external
communications
Strategic enrolment Plan
Organizing for strategic planning
Institutional Strategic Plan
Strategic Enrollment Plan
Recruitment Planning
Committee
Marketing Planning
Committee
Retention Planning
Committee
Clear goals
Key strategies
Detailed Action Plans
Objectives
Timetables
Responsibility
Budgets
Evaluation
Communication is key to success
• Preparation• Data Collection• Key Performance Indicators• Situation Analysis
Phase One: Data Analysis
• Strategy Development• Tactics Identified• Strategy Prioritization
Phase Two:Strategies
• ROI Considerations• Enrollment Projection• Goal Setting• Finalize Written Plan
Phase ThreeEnrollment Goals
• Implementation of Plan• Form Strategic EM Council
Phase Four:Implementation
Introduction to the SEP phases:
Sample Table of Contents for the finalized SEP plan
Introduction and Executive Summary
Organizational Structure for Planning and Foci
Situation Analysis
Mission, Vision, Key Performance Indicators, Planning Assumptions,
Strategies and Priorities for action
Enrollment goals, projections, and return on investments
Future structure to monitor enrollment management
Summary
Key Performance Indicators
Enrollment
External
Market demand
Selectivity
DiversityTrue Capacity
Pricing and Net Costs
Persistence & Graduation
Experience &Engagement
Possible indicators
Strategic Enrollment Management Council (SEMC)
Goals
• Assesses progress towards goal obtainment
KPI
• Monitors KPIs
Strategy
Implementa
tion
• Sets priorities and budget dollars linked to priorities to accomplish goals
Typical elements in a strategic enrollment plan
• Resources• Dollars• Time• Staff• Technology
• Expected level of strategy impact• Priority to accomplishing enrollment
projection• Campus readiness for implementation
ROI strategy analysis
A multi-year tool should have the ability to model the following items:
• Enrollment (first-year, transfer, full-time, part-time, etc.)• Direct cost – tuition and fees (sometimes room and/or board)• Residency• Retention• Revenue and institutional aid annualization/realization
− Annualization factors adjust for revenue due to mid-year attrition (i.e., who you lose after fall and pick up in spring)
− Annualization factors allow you to estimate annual revenues and expenditures from fall term enrollment
− For example, if the presence of one freshman in the fall term indicates that you will collect 99% of an FTE annual tuition (when in-year attrition and subsequent term enrollees are considered), the annualization factor for tuition revenue for freshmen would be 99%
• Model institutional aid (funded and unfunded), discount rate, and net revenue by class as well as on the aggregate
Scenarios provide comparisons
© Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved
Noel-Levitz UniversityCurrent Date:February 28, 2012
Last Modified Date: Enrollment Projections Combining All ScenariosJanuary 30, 2011
Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020Freshmen 458 462 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463 463
Sophomore 270 300 305 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 306 Junior 220 228 247 252 253 253 253 253 253 253 253 Senior 228 232 240 255 261 262 262 262 262 262 262 Total 1,176 1,222 1,255 1,276 1,283 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284 1,284
Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020Freshmen 458 462 471 486 503 520 539 558 578 600 622
Sophomore 270 300 329 337 346 356 366 377 388 400 413 Junior 220 228 248 269 276 282 290 297 305 314 323 Senior 228 232 242 260 278 286 292 299 306 313 321 Total 1,176 1,222 1,290 1,352 1,403 1,444 1,487 1,531 1,577 1,627 1,679
Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020Freshmen 458 462 463 476 478 492 494 508 511 526 544
Sophomore 270 300 328 313 323 320 327 328 335 338 346 Junior 220 228 247 267 259 265 264 268 271 275 278 Senior 228 232 241 258 273 270 274 275 277 281 283 Total 1,176 1,222 1,279 1,314 1,333 1,347 1,359 1,379 1,394 1,420 1,451
Factoring in Financial Aid
© Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved
2009-2010 2010-2011 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014Actual Projected Projected Projected Projected
Total Enrollment 2367 2536 2625 2760 2923Tuition revenue $43,769,546 $49,307,508 $53,364,871 $58,856,214 $65,384,548Required fee revenue $1,576,470 $1,846,357 $1,930,236 $2,129,487 $2,365,672Room/board revenue $15,208,685 $16,581,903 $18,066,523 $19,988,345 $22,202,265Other charges $443,767 $0 $0 $0 $0
Total revenue $60,998,468 $67,735,768 $73,361,630 $80,974,046 $89,952,485Unfunded gift aid - tuition $16,636,731 $20,337,206 $22,943,014 $26,558,534 $29,017,554Unfunded gift aid - room/board $0 $0 $0 $0 $0Funded gift aid $3,437,548 $2,975,000 $2,975,000 $2,175,000 $2,175,000
Total institutional gift $20,074,279 $23,312,206 $25,918,014 $28,733,534 $31,192,554Employee dependent waivers $1,863,153 $1,812,496 $1,652,158 $1,510,827 $1,474,210Net Tuition Revenue (NACUBO) $25,271,737 $27,841,659 $29,377,093 $32,252,167 $36,557,666Overall unfunded net revenue $42,498,584 $45,586,066 $48,766,458 $52,904,685 $59,460,721Tuition Discount Rate (NACUBO) 44.3% 45.6% 46.9% 47.1% 46.0%Overall unfunded discount 28.1% 30.8% 32.0% 33.4% 32.8%
Summary of Annual Results
ABC University
Projection of Undergraduate Enrollment, Net Revenue and Discountfor the Incoming through 2013-2014 Academic Years
End Result
© Noel-Levitz, Inc. All rights reserved
Noel-Levitz UniversityCurrent Date:February 28, 2012
Last Modified Date: Revenue Projections Combining All ScenariosJanuary 30, 2011
Model #1: Full-time/Bachelors
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020
Tuition Revenue Based on
Enrollment and/Student
Revenue
Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,620,137 $5,901,144 $6,196,201 $6,506,011 $6,831,312 $7,172,877 $7,531,521 $7,908,097 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,114,892 $4,334,803 $4,551,543 $4,779,120 $5,018,076 $5,268,980 $5,532,429 $5,809,050 $6,099,503
Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,589,564 $3,783,998 $3,973,198 $4,171,858 $4,380,451 $4,599,474 $4,829,447 $5,070,920 Senior $2,856,152 $3,102,372 $3,461,084 $3,719,647 $3,920,594 $4,116,623 $4,322,454 $4,538,577 $4,765,506 $5,003,781 Total $14,743,232 $15,920,578 $17,005,587 $17,956,332 $18,869,113 $19,812,569 $20,803,197 $21,843,357 $22,935,525 $24,082,301
Scenario #2: 5% increase in new; 5% increase in retention
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020
Tuition Revenue Based on
Enrollment and/Student
Revenue
Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,444,996 $5,899,323 $6,410,962 $6,959,016 $7,573,953 $8,232,985 $8,954,478 $9,760,071 $10,623,837 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,438,687 $4,773,950 $5,146,516 $5,560,022 $6,002,013 $6,491,521 $7,014,975 $7,593,530 $8,232,336
Junior $2,945,760 $3,364,368 $3,831,717 $4,127,998 $4,428,624 $4,781,972 $5,142,269 $5,544,820 $5,993,859 $6,473,941 Senior $2,856,152 $3,128,225 $3,528,948 $3,961,923 $4,279,732 $4,587,992 $4,932,877 $5,300,781 $5,693,143 $6,130,587 Total $14,743,232 $16,376,276 $18,033,938 $19,647,399 $21,227,395 $22,945,929 $24,799,652 $26,815,054 $29,040,603 $31,460,700
Scenario 3: 5% new student every other year; plus 5% retention increase in 2012; 1% in 2013, 2% in 2014
Fall of 2010 Fall of 2011 Fall of 2012 Fall of 2013 Fall of 2014 Fall of 2015 Fall of 2016 Fall of 2017 Fall of 2018 Fall of 2019 Fall of 2020
Tuition Revenue Based on
Enrollment and/Student
Revenue
Freshmen $5,086,620 $5,352,512 $5,777,938 $6,092,326 $6,584,300 $6,941,619 $7,495,262 $7,916,502 $8,556,329 $9,291,587 Sophomore $3,854,700 $4,425,196 $4,433,965 $4,804,407 $4,997,773 $5,362,454 $5,647,796 $6,056,744 $6,416,533 $6,896,824
Junior $2,945,760 $3,350,802 $3,803,228 $3,873,737 $4,161,650 $4,353,243 $4,640,162 $4,926,709 $5,249,399 $5,571,999 Senior $2,856,152 $3,115,299 $3,501,802 $3,890,665 $4,040,306 $4,305,171 $4,536,927 $4,798,419 $5,111,096 $5,404,848 Total $14,743,232 $16,243,808 $17,516,933 $18,661,135 $19,784,029 $20,962,487 $22,320,147 $23,698,374 $25,333,357 $27,165,257
Five points to remember relative to calculating and communicating ROI
1. Optimal number of students for your capacity2. The desired characteristics of sub-groups of your
students as well as overall3. Achieve a targeted net revenue goal by
sub-populations of your students4. Control the institution’s discount rate/financial aid
expenditures5. Understand the retention implications of your current
enrollment initiatives, both in terms of recruitment of populations as well as awarding strategies
Strategic enrollmentgrowth matrix
ExistingPrograms/Services
NewPrograms/Services
Existing Markets
New Markets
Marketpenetration
Programdevelopment
DiversificationMarket
development
Evaluating the economics of programs – strategic response
Manage Grow or build
StartReduce or eliminate
Enr
ollm
ent
as %
of
Cap
acity
Net Operating Income Per Student
The quality perception of Group A schools is relatively weak; in fact, they are almost indistinguishable from the
community colleges
Job placement and progression to graduate school
YearSurvey
ResponsePlacement
RateEmployed
Graduate or Professional School
2009 80.4% 96.0% 57.1% 38.9%
2008 79.5% 94.0% 53.0% 41.0%
2007 79.0% 97.8% 56.5% 41.3%
2006 77.6% 96.6% 54.9% 41.7%
2005 70.0% 94.4% 46.9% 47.5%
Assessing alumni satisfaction
Not at All Satisfied/Not Very
Satisfied
Somewhat Satisfied Satisfied/Very Satisfied
My Sample U education prepared me well for my
first real job after graduation.
12% 17% 71%
My Sample U education prepared me well for
graduate school.5% 10% 85%
In general, the tuition I paid for my education was a worthwhile investment.
6% 14% 80%
Competition, market demand, program strength
Program:What we do best
-- Authenticity
Market Demand:What students want
-- Relevance
Competition:Unoccupied market positions-- Differentiation
X university
Northern State University
Northern Kentucky University
Morehead State University
Montana State University-Billings
Missouri Western State University
Missouri State University-Springfield
Missouri Southern State University
Minnesota State University Moorhead
Louisiana State University-Shreveport
Indiana University-South Bend
Indiana University-Purdue Uni-versity-Fort Wayne
Indiana University-Northwest
Henderson State University
Fort Hays State University
Emporia State UniversityEastern Washington University
Delta State University
Central Washington University
Cameron University
Boise State University
Auburn University at Montgomery
Arkansas Tech University
Arkansas State University-Main Campus
Angelo State University
Adams State College
Net PriceHigh CostLow Selectivity
Low CostHigh Selectivity
High CostHigh Selectivity
Low CostLow Selectivity
Selectivity
National Center for Education Statistics. Data Feedback Report 2012. Comparison Institution: Northwest Missouri State University.
Occupations with the largest numerical growth requiring at least a BA
2008-18
Occupation # of New Jobs
% Change 2008 Median Wage
Registered Nurse* 581,500 22% $62,450
Accountants and auditors 279,400 22% $59,430
Postsecondary teachers 256,900 15% $58,830
Elementary school teachers
244,200 16% $49,330
Management analysts 178,300 24% $73,750
Computer software engineers, applications
175,100 34% $85,430
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsOccupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition
http://www/bls.gov/oco/
* Only requires an AA
Occupations with the largest numerical growth requiring at least a BA
2008-18
U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor StatisticsOccupational Outlook Handbook, 2010-11 Edition
http://www/bls.gov/oco/
Occupation % Change
# of New Jobs 2008 Median Wage
Biomedical engineers 72% 11,600 $77,400
Network systems and data communications analysts
53% 155,800 $71,000
Financial examiners 41% 11,100 $70,930
Medical scientists 40% 44,200 $72,590
Physician assistants 39% 29,200 $81,250
Biochemists and biophysicists 37% 8,700 $82,840
Athletic trainers 37% 6,000 $39,640
Computer software engineers 34% 175,100 $85,430
Veterinarians 33% 19,700 $79,050
Sample University’s out-of-state market: All students with B+ and above GPA
OH IN IL MD VA NJ PA TN WV MO TX
Medical Physician 11,144 5,733 11,739 4,596 6,790 7,782 11,866 6,587 2,190 5,871 27,502
Nursing/Health Care 7,906 4,362 7,760 3,393 4,393 3,741 7,937 4,985 1,548 3,300 20,128
Lawyer/Legal Services 5,173 2,417 6,538 3,091 3,802 5,217 6,633 2,861 646 2,912 13,203
Engineering (General) 4,171 2,034 4,476 2,413 2,735 3,597 4,943 1,897 610 2,327 11,721Law Enforcement/Criminal Justice 2,977 1,474 3,868 1,839 2,081 2,916 4,106 1,680 467 1,279 8,324
Business Owner/Entrepreneur 3,151 1,430 3,275 1,916 2,350 2,445 4,128 1,731 344 1,699 8,476
Architecture 3,245 1,497 3,744 1,501 2,096 2,720 3,674 1,251 382 1,626 8,282
Culinary/Chef 2,992 1,245 3,672 1,720 2,040 2,476 3,545 1,437 468 1,730 7,187
Athletics/Coaching 2,875 1,319 3,112 1,324 1,732 1,815 3,297 1,500 409 1,426 7,375
Engineering (Mechanical) 2,774 1,417 2,639 1,200 1,791 1,607 2,811 1,393 481 1,103 7,447
Physical Therapy 3,382 1,657 2,875 937 1,586 1,470 3,784 1,769 696 1,290 3,855
Child Care/Development 2,448 1,127 2,802 1,240 1,474 1,631 3,166 1,558 367 1,498 5,959
Sports Medicine 3,286 1,328 2,343 1,292 1,893 1,523 3,196 1,590 532 1,236 4,614
Veterinary Medicine 2,350 1,330 2,040 936 1,483 1,004 2,264 1,232 428 1,144 5,257
Military Science 2,267 894 2,179 1,106 1,809 1,671 2,456 1,255 308 1,114 4,142
Engineering (Electrical) 1,862 956 2,079 1,254 1,446 1,362 2,106 1,038 416 815 5,767
Pharmacy 2,164 1,211 2,109 536 1,054 1,286 2,567 1,433 579 919 4,443
Photography/Video/Film 1,821 1,041 2,225 984 1,360 1,417 2,373 947 287 871 4,793
Graphic Arts/Design 1,880 900 2,122 991 1,153 1,504 2,331 856 254 967 4,598
Fashion Merchandising 1,447 559 1,758 1,047 1,239 1,508 1,822 659 133 730 4,506
StatesMajors
USM’s admission selectivity average ACT is 23
Selectivity Level ACT SAT
(Middle 50%) (Middle 50%)
Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000
Selective 21–26 1470–1770
Traditional 18–24 1290–1650
Liberal 17–22 1230–1530
Open 16–21 1170–1480
Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012.2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
SMU’ selectivity average ACT is 23
Selectivity Level ACT SAT
(Middle 50%) (Middle 50%)
Highly selective 25–30 1710–2000
Selective 21–26 1470–1770
Traditional 18–24 1290–1650
Liberal 17–22 1230–1530
Open 16–21 1170–1480
Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012.2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Highly selec-tive
Selective Traditional Liberal Open0
25
50
75
100
0 0
63.7
53.948.2
93.4
78.3
62.7
53.6
62.2
88.4
80.2
69.9
44.8
66.2
93.9
84.4
74.2 75.171.6
AA BA MA Ph.D.
First- to second-year retention rates for private institutions
USM’s most recent rate is 64%
Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012.2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
0.0 0.0
Highly selective Selective Traditional Liberal Open0
25
50
75
100
86.1
68.4
41.5 42.3 44.2
82.4
65.3
49.4 48.1 47.3
84.6
66.4
51.748.9
56.1
4247.8
71.3
47.3
AA BA MA Ph.D.
0.0
USM’s graduation rate is 51.5
Source: Compiled from ACT Institutional Data File, 2012.2012. ACT, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
National graduation rates for private institutions
Questions and discussion
FOCUSMISSION
on the
& VISION
2014 Strategic PlanMission & Vision
Vision represents where we want to go.
Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
Our Mission
Educates students of diverse backgrounds
to realize their God-given potentialAnd prepares them for value-
centered
lives and careersThat contribute to the well being of our global society.
Our Mission
Educates students of diverse
backgrounds to realize their God-
given potentialand prepares
them for value-centered lives
and careersthat contribute to the well
being of our global society.
Is it still relevant?Is it appropriate for today?
Our Mission
Educates students of diverse
backgrounds to realize their God-
given potentialand prepares
them for value-centered lives
and careersthat contribute to the well
being of our global society.
Are we fulfilling it?Where do we excel?Where do we fall short?
2014 Strategic PlanMission & Vision
Vision represents where we want to go.
Mission is our raison d'être. It represents who we are.
2014 Strategic Plan
2006 Plan Vision Statement“The University of Saint Mary will realize its mission through regional recognition for its nursing program, build synergy with the introduction of programs and strategic partnership in Allied Health, and foster financial stewardship to further promote and enhance its reputation of academic excellence.”
2014 Strategic Plan
2011 Plan Vision Statement“USM will advance its mission by continuing development of health science programs, improving student persistence rates, and enhancing facilities and technology infrastructure.”
2014 Strategic Plan
2014 Vision
The Benefits of Visioning
purpose
bre
aki
ng b
oundari
es
outside the boxvisionunique solutionslaser-like focus
commitment
creati
vit
y
USM Administration
USM Board of Trustees
2014 Strategic PlanEnvisioning the Future Forest
PRODUCTDELIVERY
BUSINESS MODEL
Accountability
Perceived Value
DemandHow
Where-Online/Brick & Mortar
When
Tuition
Loans & Aid
Discounting
Envisioning the Future Forest
Questions for Group Discussions
‘What opportunities and risks do you see for USM given the current business model/product/delivery methods?’
Envisioning the Future Forest
Questions for Group Discussions
‘Considering the characteristics of USM students and the demand for degrees, what are the implications for product/delivery/business model?’
Envisioning the Future Forest
Questions for Group Discussions
‘What challenges does the current environment pose to USM’s business model/product/delivery? How do we address those challenges?’
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