building resilience through better agricultural water management - david molden - international...
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David MoldenInternational Water Management Institute
Building Resilience Through Better Agricultural Water Management
Presentation
Drivers of Water Use Agriculture, Population & Diets,
urbanization, energy, politics, poverty, closing basins, water scarcity, climate change
Future Water Needs Adaptive Responses Propositions
One liter of water produces one calorie on average
Food
Sup
ply
in C
alor
ies
One liter of water produces one calorie on average
Will there be enough water? A question posed to 700
researchers and practitioners who put together the Comprehensive Assessment of Water Management in Agriculture.
Investing in Irrigation
Irrigated Area
Food price index
World Bank lending for irrigation
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
01960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
320
280
240
200
160
120
80
40
0
Living Planet IndexFreshwater Species
Export Prices of wheat 1961-2008 (US $/ t fob)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
*2008 data is up to june
US
$ (
in 2
005
Pric
es)
Urbanization
Urbanization
• Increased demand for water for cities• Reallocation from irrigation to cities• Cities generate more wastewater – an important
source of agricultural supplies• Changes in dietary preferences – farmers respond to
different demands• Voting dynamics shift• Cities offer jobs – competition for rural employment
55
Water and Energy
Power Connection in Uttar Pradesh India
Rapidly increasing demand for electricity connection in the domestic sector
Water for Biofuels
Litres of ET Litres of Irrigation water
China 3800 2500
India 4100 3500
US 1750 300
Brazil 2250 200
Water use per liter of biofuel production
Energy in Nepal
Hydropower in Nepal: Potential: 42,000 MW, Actual: 700 MW
• River basins closed – Colorado, Murray Darling, Yellow, Indus, Amu Darya ……… no additional water left
• Groundwater overdraft – in agricultural breadbaskets
• Fisheries – ocean and freshwater at a limit, aquaculture will become more prevalent
• Livestock – limit on extent of grazing land, more will come from mixed and industrialized production
Limits – reached or breached
Water Scarcity 2000
1/3 of the world’s population live in basins that have to deal with water scarcity
Hunger Goal Indicator: Prevalence of undernourished in developing countries, percentage 2001/2002 (UNstat, 2005)
840 million malnourished people remaining
MOST HUNGRY AND POOR PEOPLE LIVE WHERE WATER CHALLENGES POSE A CONSTRAINT TO FOOD PRODUCTION
Will there be enough water to grow enough food, reduce poverty and support ecosystems?
No, unless ….We change the way we think and act on water issues.
Answer from the Comprehensive Assessment –
WHAT OF THE FUTURE?
USA
projectionsdata
2003
1961 2050
China
India
140
20
120
100
40
60
80
WorldMeat
consu
mpti
on
kg/c
ap/y
rPer capita meat demand (kg/cap/yr)
How much more cereals?
Food demand doubles over the next 50 years because of diet and population growth
Water Needs (ET) will double – without water productivity gains
Based on IWMI WaterSim analysis for the CA
Today
Without Water Productivity Gains,
crop consumption doubles by 2050
2050
Water Use – Today and 2050
No Water Productivity Gains
Water Use – Today and 2050
Based on WaterSim analysis for the CA
Today
CA Scenario
No Water Productivity
Gains
CA Scenario: Policies for productivity gains, upgrading rainfed, revitalized irrigation, trade
2050
Climate Change
Mitigation is about gases.Adaptation is about water.
- Costs 1/3rd of growth potential- Occurs as prolonged dry spells, drought and floods
Impact of rainfall variability on GDP and Agricultural GDP growth
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
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19
90
19
91
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19
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19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
year
%
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
rainfall variability
GDP growth
Ag GDP growth
Unmitigated rainfall and hydrological variability
Source: World Bank, 2006. A Country Water Resources Assistance Strategy
for Ethiopia
Water storage mitigates variability
Source: World Bank
But need to re-think water storage:
role of groundwater, and soil moisture, insurance
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000D
ays
of s
tora
ge c
apac
ity
Water Storage Mitigates Climate Variability
Policy Agenda – Where is there hope?
Consider A Range of Agricultural Water Management Options
Fish, Livestock, Crops, Ecosystem Services
Address Drivers of Change
Our policies and actions outside the water sector; Agriculture Trade Response to climate change Diets Energy/biofuels
have a profound impact on water resources.
Photos from Diet for a Small Planet
Political Drivers
Regional stability and conflicts International agreements Corruption and transparency International goals and objectives
Challenge: to develop solutions in the context of fragile states, countries in conflict, weak governance arrangements
Productivity
United States
China
Latin America
Sub-Saharan AfricaM
aize
yie
ld (
tons
/hec
tare
)
Increase Water Productivity• Physical Water Productivity – more crop per
drop– To reduce future water needs– For food production increases
• Economic Water Productivity – more value per drop– For more income, growth– Integrated, multiple use systems
Adapt yesterday’s irrigation
to tomorrow’s needs1. To reduce rural poverty2. To improve performance of many systems,
particularly in South Asia3. To keep up with changing food demand4. To adapt to changes – water scarcity,
competition, climate change, energy5. To increase multiple benefits and ecosystem
services, while reducing negative impacts
Around 70% of the world’s under-
nourished live in rural areas where non-agricultural
livelihood options are limited.
Get water to poor people, use it better
Improve and Safeguard Water Access
Access to Technologies
Manage Externalities
Deal with negative impacts of water development
Ecosystem degradationNegative health impactsInequitable benefitsLoss of biodiversity
Propositions• Facilitate crafting of context specific adaptive policy and
management responses. • Refocus on agricultural productivity, especially water
productivity in light of scarcity. Share benefits.• Focus on access to water for the poor through technology and
rights, in particular for women and marginalized groups. Upgrading rainfed agriculture has high potential.
• Reinvent and revitalize irrigation in light of water scarcity and changing societal needs, with a focus on institutional and policy change.
• Identify and manage externalities brought about by water resources development and management in doing the above.
Considering local context, increasing demand & competition, complexity & integration, drivers of change, local politics
Thank You !
“Anyone who can solve the problems of water will be worthy of two Nobel Prizes – one for peace and one for science”
John F Kennedy
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