building risk resilient infrastructure: incorporating ... · accounting for and estimating risks...
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Building risk resilient infrastructure: incorporating disaster and climate risk into Energy, Transport and
ICT Sector planning in Central Asia
Madhurima Sarkar-SwaisgoodExpert group meeting: Advancing co-deployment financing through
the Asia Pacific Information Superhighway in North and
Central Asia31 January, Almaty Kazakhstan
Formerly an infrastructure investment
Estimate global investment ininfrastructure 2015-2030approximately USD 90 trillion
Unless this investment is riskinformed, it represents a majorinvestment in future disasters
Message #1
Disaster and climate risk is outpacing
resilience in North and Central Asia
Disasters are impacting the sub-region
Occurrence of disasters,especially from extremeweather events has been on therise in the past two decades
1
10
100
Floods Earthquakes Extreme Temperature Landslides
Num
ber
of
occura
nces
(log s
cale
)
Increased occurance of extreme weather and seismic
events in Central Asia
1980-1999 2000-2018
Damage and loss fromdisasters, especially fromextreme weather events hasbeen on the rise
1
10
100
1000
10000
100000
1000000
10000000
Floods Earthquakes Extreme Temperature Landslides
'000 U
SD
(lo
g s
cale
)
Increased damage and loss from extreme weather and
seismic events in Central Asia
1980-1999 2000-2018
Source: ESCAP analysis based on EM-DAT data (2019). Countries analyzed include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russian Federation, Tajikistan,
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
Future disaster impacts in the sub-region
Source: Global Assessment Report, 2015
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
1.6%
Average annual loss by 2030
(% of GDP)
Earthquake Wind Storm surge Tsunami Floods Volcano
Message #2
Disasters are shared vulnerabilities that pose
high risks to critical infrastructure sectors ;
disaster impacts are amplified because sectors
are interconnected
Risk Information= Evidence Based
Decision Making
1. Identify critical infrastructure sectors @ risk;
2. Identify inter-linkages and interdependencies among critical sectors;
3. Put in place “hard” (built environment) and “soft” (land use plan, building codes) resiliency.
Multi-hazards across the sub-region
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
Landslide
Flood hazard 100 years
LEGENDHAZARDS
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
LEGEND
HAZARDS
ICT infrastructure
ICT – Fiber optic cables
Hazard risk to ICT infrastructure
Hazard risk to transport infrastructure
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
Landslide
Flood hazard 100 years
LEGEND
Asian highway nodes
HAZARDS
Road network – Asian highway
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
Landslide
Flood hazard 100 years
LEGEND
HAZARDS
Energy infrastructure (power plants)
Solar
Coal
Hydropower
Hazard risk to energy infrastructure
(Source: based on Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015; ESCAP, Network Analysis, 2014)
Multiple disaster risk needs to be accounted for when looking
at infrastructure projects and co-deployment
Transportation and ICT co-deployment
Flood risk
Earthquake risk(Transboundary)
Earthquake risk(Transboundary)
Parts of the Asian Highway are in multi-hazard disaster risk hotspots
Accounting for and estimating risks from
current and future hazards need to be
mainstreamed into infrastructure planning
Message #3
Earthquake and landslide risk
(Transboundary)
Flood risk
Flood risk
Earthquake risk
Example- Transport infrastructure connecting Almaty and
Bishkek
LEGEND
Capital cities
Asian highway nodes
Road network – Asian highway
Asian highway connecting Bishkek and
Almaty
Example- Transport infrastructure connecting Almaty and
Bishkek
Bishkek and Almaty transport exposure to multi-hazards
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
Landslide
Flood hazard 100 years
LEGEND
Major cities
Asian highway nodes
HAZARDS
Road network – Asian highway
Asian highway connecting Bishkek and
Almaty
Landslide riskLandslide riskHigh Earthquake risk
Some Earthquake risk
Flood Risk
Flood Risk
Seismic hazard PGA RT 475 years
Landslide
Flood hazard 100 years
LEGEND
Major cities
Asian highway nodes
HAZARDS
ICT infrastructure
Road network – Asian highway
ICT – Fiber optic cables
ICT cables
Some Earthquake risk
Landslide riskLandslide and high earthquake
risk
Bishkek and Almaty ICT exposure to multi-hazards
Earthquake risk
Some earthquake riskSolar
Hydropower
Coal
Landslide risk Landslide risk
Flood Risk
Bishkek and Almaty infrastructure exposure to multi-hazards
Message #3
Climate change is going to exacerbate hazards
and pose additional risks; probabilistic models
need to be developed to account for these risks
on infrastructure sectors
Climate change is projected to accelerate in the sub-region
There is general agreement that temperatures are expected to rise by 2030by around one to two degrees Centigrade.
Available estimates for precipitation indicate a correlation between risingtemperature and heightened average annual precipitation.
The level of UNCERTAINITY is
growing….we need future climate data to estimate the
risks
Source: UNDP 2009, Natural disaster risks in Central Asia- A synthesis
Hydropower exposure to water stress and drought (2030-2060 projection)
Drought/water stress can poses a substantial
risk in the energy sector, particularly when
looking at hydropower
(Source: Based on Water Risk Atlas by World Resources Institute, 2015; Based on ESCAP Asia Pacific Energy Portal, 2017)
Addressing future disaster and climate risks requires adopting a probabilistic approach towards measuring risk
Probabilistic risk models
Probabilistic risk models can provide robust estimates of risk for
countries and specific infrastructure sectors
Metrics include Annual Average Loss (AAL) and Probable
Maximum Loss (PML)
The Global Risk Model: Annual Average Loss (AAL)
Kazakhstan Kyrgyzstan Mongolia
Message #4
ESCAP has been at the forefront of providing
disaster risk analysis to countries in Asia and the
Pacific and is developing sector specific AAL for
countries in Central Asia under the Development
Account project
Country EXPOSED VALUE AALAAL/Capital
stockAAL/GFCF
AAL/Social
expenditure
Million US$ Million US$ [‰] [%] [%]Kazakhstan 734.310 750,46 1,02 1,73 4,10Kyrgyzstan 18.467 92,68 5,02 3,90 8,20
Mongolia 36.588 34,87 0,95 1,20 2,22
Multi-hazard AAL (earthquakes and floods)
Estimating possible direct and indirect losses
Country AAL AAL/GDPAAL/Capital
stockAAL/GFCF
AAL/Social
expenditure
Million US$ [%] [‰] [%] [%]Kazakhstan 1876,15 1,02 2,55 4,33 10,26
Kyrgyzstan 231,7 3,47 12,55 9,75 20,51
Mongolia 87,175 0,74 2,38 3,00 5,55
Loss
Exceedance r
ate [#
/year]
Current risk
Loss
Exceedance r
ate [#
/year]
Resilience target
Risk reduction
Identify risk management alternatives
Structural:Adoption of standards for new infrastructure investments
Engineering assessments to retrofit critical infrastructure
Financial:Design of risk transfer
instruments
Estimation of costs of risk transfer
Response:Contingency plans
Early warning systems
Reduces Direct Loss
Reduces Net Loss and
accelerates recovery
Improves system performance and reduces the Indirect Loss.
Risk metrics for resilient infrastructure
National multi-hazard
risk profile
High resolution infrastructure
sector risk modelRisk management strategy
LEC/ AAL / PML
Extensive risk
Identify financing gaps
Implications for sustainable
development
Define resilience targets
and strategy
Integrate into public and
private investment planning
AAL / PML values for each sector
or region (energy, transport etc.)
Identification of critical risks in
networks and nodes
Modelling of indirect losses
Identification of risk layers.
Define risk appetite
Adoption of standards for new
infrastructure investments
Retrofit critical infrastructure
Risk transfer
Contingency plans and early
warning systems
Finance and
planning ministries
Sector line ministries and sub-
national governmentsUtility companies,
infrastructure operators
Cost-effective risk
management strategies
Climate change scenarios
Development Account project
Develop multi-hazard risk assessment and future cost estimates in Central Asia
Partner with CEDRR to hold joint training and capacity
development workshops
Going forward…
THANKYOU
Madhurima Sarkar-Swaisgood, PhDEconomic Affairs OfficerICT and Disaster Risk Reduction Division, UNESCAPEmail: sarkar-swaisgood@un.org
Consultant: Maria Dewi BernadetEmail: maria.dewi@un.org
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