bulgaria 2020 targets
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Kenneth Lefkowitz Managing PartnerNew Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd.www.necadvisory.com
05 November 2009
RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCES AND REDUCING CO2 EMISSIONS
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?05 November 2009
Presentation by:
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Indicative trajectory of renewables as fraction of Final Energy Consumption (FEC) until 2020
9,40%
10,72%11,38%
12,37%
13,69%
16% (binding)
8,00%
9,00%
10,00%
11,00%
12,00%
13,00%
14,00%
15,00%
16,00%
17,00%
Source: Directive 2009/28/EC 2
Source: Eurostat
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Renewables consumption scenarios (TWh)
3
ScenariosHistoric
10,29
11,79
13,49
15,45
17,69
20,25
23,19
1,33 1,362,07
2,72
5,086,28
7,938,67
8,99 9,9110,93
12,0513,28
14,65
16,15
17,80
0
5
10
15
20
25
Scenario 1: 7% annual growth (based on projection of the Ministry of Economy, Energy and Tourism)
Scenario 2: 5% annual growth (2003-2006 average, Eurostat)
9,61%
38,44%
11,68%
23,04%
7,71%
9,52%
Derived heat and Industrial waste
Source: Eurostat
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Final Energy Consumption by fuel/product 2006
4,71%
42,23%
22,83%
5,10%
20,67%
Solid fuels
Oil
Gas
Renewables
ElectricityRenewables
Gas
Electricity
Solid fuels
Oil
Bulgaria EU-27
4
Historic Scenarios
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Scenarios for Final Energy Consumption until 2020 (TWh)
5
127 133
141 149
157 165
174 182
194 204
214 225
236
119 124 129
134 140
146 153
159 166
173 181
189
120 123 125 128 130 132 135 137 140 142 145
-
50
100
150
200
250
Scenario 1: Minisrty of Economy, Energy and Tourism's projection, according to the long-term program for development of RenewablesScenario 2: Based on Eurostat data; convergence with EU-27 FEC/capita average; 4,3% annual growth
Scenario 3: Based on NSI data; 2% annual growth (2002-2006 average)
45,80%
48,60% 48,70% 48,97%50,77%
52,63%54,56%
56,55%
58,63%
60,78%
64,10% 64,31% 64,40% 64% 64%
40,00%
45,00%
50,00%
55,00%
60,00%
65,00%
70,00%
BulgariaEU-27
75% convergence with EU-27 until 2020
Source: Eurostat
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Energy Efficiency 2002-2007 and NECA projectionFinal Energy Consumption/Gross Inland Consumption
6
Historic
7
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Final Energy Consumption, Gross Inland Consumption and renewables (NECA projection, TWh)
101 107116 114
124 134
146 159
173 189 221 221
239 233 244
255 268
282 296
311
7,44 8,25 8,99 10,29 11,79 13,49 15,45 17,69 20,25 23,19
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Final energy consumption (Scenario 2)
Gross inland consumption
Renewables consumption (Scenario 1)
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Renewables as percentage of FECWorst-case and best-case scenarios
8
0,07% 0,50% 0,73% 0,77%
-0,01%
-3,04%-3,75%
-4,82%-6,14%
-8,46%
10,72%11,38%
12,37%13,69%
16%
7,68% 7,63% 7,55% 7,55% 7,54%
10,79%11,88%
13,10%
14,46%
15,99%
9,23% 9,76%10,33%
11,01%11,77%
-10,00%
-5,00%
0,00%
5,00%
10,00%
15,00%
20,00%Best-case scenario
Worst-case scenario
Indicative trajectory
Worst-case scenario (Scenario 1 for Final Energy Consumption, scenario 2 for consumption of renewables)
Best-case scenario (Scenario 3 for Final Energy Consumption and scenario 1 for consumption of renewables)
Base case scenario
9
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Capacity needed to meet 20/20/2020NECA estimations
TypeBase case (Installed
capacity, MW)
Assumed average
efficiency
Incremental capacity to fill
gap (MW)
Estimated averagemarginal cost
(million Euros per MW installed
capacity)
Estimated total cost for incremental
capacity to fill gap (billion Euros)
Wind 1,419 30% 3,040 € 1,2 – 1,5 € 4,1
Small hydro 450 50% 1,824 € 2,5 € 4,6
Large hydro 80 75% 1,216 € 3 € 3,6
Solar 200 12% 7,601 € 2- 2,5 € 17,1
Biomass 1,762 95% 960 € 2 - 4 € 2,9
Geothermal 159 80% 1,140 € 2- 5 € 4,0
* The expected indirect sanctions for every GWh unproduced energy from renewables are around € 1,2 million, or a total of € 42,5 billion until 2020 for the base-case scenario and € 113,6 billion for the worst-case scenario
• Introduce long-term contracts at a pre-agreed price to stimulate renewables growth
• The government should get more actively involved with grid development
• The government should increase its financial and supervisory functions
• Most importantly, the government should seek constant dialogue with the parties involved
Source: AmCham Bulgaria
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?
Government actions
10
Kenneth LefkowitzManaging partnerNew Europe Corporate Advisory Ltd.www.necadvisory.com
99 Evlogi Georgiev Blvd.Bulgaria, 1142, Sofiatel.: +359 (2) 988-7390cell: +359 (88) 631 5375fax: +359 (2) 981-6206e-mail: neca@necadvisory.com
Bulgaria’s 20/20/2020 Targets: What do they Mean for the Renewables Industry?05 November 2009
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