caadp m&e framework and modeling in west africa
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CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK AND MODELING IN WEST AFRICA
By Mbaye Yade Sub Coordinator ReSAKSS WA
R4D Week 2010: Mini-Symposium on Outcomes and Impact Assessments
-----------------------------------
IBADAN, NIGERIA, 24 NOVEMBER 2010
1
OUTLINE
• SAKSS TO RESAKSS• CAADP BASIC TARGETS AND PRINCIPLES• ReSAKSS => CAADP• COUNTRY CAAPD CYCLE• MODELING AGRICULTURE• CAADP M&E FRAMEWORK• 1ST COMPREHENSIVE M&E REPORT• PROSPECTS
2
FROM SAKSS TO ReSAKSS
• SAKSS:– INITIATIVE FROM CG-SYSTEM
– FOCUS ON STRATEGIC ANALYSIS AND SOME COUNTRIES– SUPPLY DRIVEN
• FROM 2006/07 FOCUSED ON CAADP IMPLEMENTATION => ReSAKSS:– GREATER LINK TO REC’S
– 3 NODES COVERING 3 REC’S WITH CONTINENT WIDE COORDINATION
– TAKE ADVANTAGE OF EXISTING NETWORKS AND CAPACITIES
– BROADER COVERAGE
3
Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADP
• CAADP as a strategic framework by which to guide country development efforts and partnerships in the agricultural sector:
• agriculture led growth for poverty reduction;
• increased funding of agriculture (10%) and
• at least 6% agriculture growth – all targeted at achieving MGD1 and other welfare targets
4
Some basic Targets and Principles of CAADP
• Greater efficiency and consistency in the planning and execution of sector policies and programmes
• Increased effectiveness in translating government expenditures into public goods and services, and
• Expertise and mechanisms to regularly and transparently measure performance against targets and keep policies and programmes on track.
5
ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION
• 3 Regional ReSAKSS nodes to:
– Facilitate access by the RECs and their member states to policy-relevant analyses of the highest quality improve policymaking,
– Track progress, document success, and derive lessons that can feed into the review and learning processes associated with the implementation of the CAADP agenda
6
ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION
– (1) mobilize existing expertise , capacities and knowledge => design, implementation, and evaluation of CAADP programs.
– (2) provide assistance to countries in the establishment of national knowledge system nodes to support CAADP implementation
7
ReSAKSS AS SUPPORT OF CAADP IMPLEMENTATION
• Work with the national nodes to provide relevant and timely information to guide:– Mutual review at the continental level to review overall
progress in the implementation of CAADP– Peer review at the regional level to promote dialogue
and mutual learning around the review of progress and performance
– Progress review at the national level to ensure that country level policies and programs are aligned with CAADP principles and on track to meet the country-specific targets and objectives
8
THE COUNTRY CAADP CYCLE
9
CAADP MODELING
• PAST PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK FOR AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND POVERTY REDUCTION
– Examine recent agricultural growth performance and future growth and poverty outcomes based on observed trends;
– Compare trends with the targets established for the sector under the ECOWP/CAADP agenda and with MDG1
– Measuring the prospects of meeting these targets and analyzing the implications for future sector growth and poverty-reduction strategies;
– Estimating the long term funding needs to accelerate agricultural growth and achieve the poverty MDG.
10
CAADP MODELING
Contribution of agricultural growth to poverty reduction
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
BENIN BURKINA FASO
CAPE VERT
GAMBIE GHANA GUINEE CONAKRY
LIBERIA MALI NIGER NIGERIA SENEGAL TOGO
Agriculture Non Agriculture sectors
CAADP MODELING
Long term contributions (=> 2015) of 1% agricultural growth to increases of agricultural GDP and poverty reduction
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Benin Burkina
Faso
Cape Verde The Gambia Ghana Guinea Liberia Mali Niger Senegal Togo
Ag
GD
P (
Millio
ns
US
$)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Po
ve
rty
re
du
cti
on
(%
)
Growth in Agricultural GDP Reduction in national poverty rate
CAADP MODELING
Strategic ag sub sectors for ag growth and poverty reduction
BENIN Food crops (Roots and Tuber)*
BURKINA FASO Cattle and Sorghum/millet
CAPE VERDE Food crops
GAMBIA Cereals (millet/Sorghum)* and livestock
GHANA Root crops and fisheries
GUINEA Rice
LIBERIA Food crops
MALI Food crops (Rice; Millet/Sorghum)*
NIGER Livestock
NIGERIA Cassava, Rice
SENEGAL Livestock and food crops (millet/sorghum; Rice)*
SIERRA LEONE Cassava
TOGO Food crops
* For countries where a disaggregated SAM did not exist, results were taken from the IFPRI multi-market model
CAADP MODELING
Expected agricultural growth rate by 2015* under different scenarios
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
Ben
in
Bur
kina
Fas
o
Cape
Verd
e
Gam
bia
Gha
na
Guinea
Libe
riaM
ali
Nig
er
Nig
eria
Sen
egal
Sierra
Leo
neTog
o
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
bau national strategies CAADP
*For Nigeria, the time horizon was extended to 2017 when the country is expected to halve the poverty rate compared to its 1996 level.
CAADP MODELING
Expected poverty reduction by 2015 under different scenarios
-100.0
-80.0
-60.0
-40.0
-20.0
0.0
20.0
40.0
Benin
Burk
ina
Faso
Cape
Ver
de
Gam
bia
Ghan
a
Guin
ea
Liber
iaM
ali
Nig
er
Nig
eria
Sen
egal
Sie
rra
Leone
Togo
bau national strategies CAADP MDG1
CAADP MODELING
Current share of agricultural spending Required agricultural funding
in total spending (%) growth rate to achieve 6 %
agricultural growth (CAADP)
16
CAADP MODELING
Current responsiveness of agricultural growth to agricultural funding
17
CAADP M&E Framework• Request from AU/NEPAD addressed to ReSAKSS• Validation of the Framework March 2010• SMART: Specific, Measurable, Achievable, Realistic
and Timely• Main Questions addressed:
– What are the projected impacts if policies and investments proceed as currently planned?
– Have expectations in terms of achieving the growth and poverty- and hunger-reduction targets been met so far?
18
CAADP M&E Framework
• Main Questions addressed:– What factors have shaped the level of impact that has
been achieved?– Are these projected impacts compatible with the growth
and poverty- and hunger-reduction goals?– Could greater or better distributed outcomes and impacts
be obtained by reconfiguring the policies and investment portfolio?
– What are the different policies and types of investments that can lead to greater and more sustainable growth as well as greater and better distributed outcomes and impacts?
– Etc.
19
CAADP M&E Framework
• ENABLING ENVIRONMENT
• CAADP COUNTRY IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS
• COMMITMENTS AND FINANCING
• AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE
• CAADP GOALS/MDG1
20
CAADP M&E Framework
• ENABLING ENVIRONMENT– POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC GOVERNANCE
– POLICIES FOR PRIVATE SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
• CAADP COUNTRY IMPLEMENTATION PROCESS– STAGE IN COUNTRY ROUNDTABLE PROCESS AND
QUALITY OF PARTICIPATION
21
CAADP M&E Framework
• COMMITMENTS AND FINANCING–DONOR COMMITMENTS AND DISBURSEMENTS
–GOVERNMENT SPENDING AND INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURE
–PRIVATE SECTOR INVESTMENTS
22
CAADP M&E Framework• AGRICULTURAL SECTOR PERFORMANCE
– CAPACITY
– AGRICULTURAL GROWTH AND SOURCES OF GROWTH
– AGRICULTURAL TRADE
• CAADP GOALS/MDG1
– POVERTY
– HUNGER AND FOOD AND NUTRITION SECURITY
23
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• NO OR LIMITED PRIMARY DATA COLLECTION
• CHALLENGES:
• ACCESS TO DATA
• DATA QUALITY
• CONTINUITY
• DATA FORMAT COMPATIBILITY
• SUSTAINABILITY
24
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• TEAM: CORE COUNTRY ACTORS– Planning and statistics unit of MINAGRI (PSU) as coordinator
– National Institute of Statistics (poverty unit, national accounting unit)
– Budget unit in Ministries of Finance
– Professional think tanks
– Market information systems
– M&E units in other relevant ministries such as livestock, environment, fisheries, trade, etc
– NARS including Universities
– Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRSP) unit
25
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• TEAM: REGIONAL
– ReSAKSS WA EXPERTS
– LEAD EXPERTS FOR EACH COMPONENT:
• FUNDING,
• MACRO PERFORMANCE,
• AGRICULTURAL PERFORMANCE,
• LIVELIHOODS
26
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• ACTIVITIES: REGIONAL– Drafting of terms of reference: list and specification of
indicators, rationale, definitions, computation, sources and links to policy targets; profile of collaborators
– Methodology workshops , quality review, technical backstopping
– Regional synthesis of each component by ReSAKSS in collaboration with lead experts
– Regional validation and dissemination workshop– Finalization of regional trends and outlook report
27
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• ACTIVITIES AT NATIONAL LEVEL– PSU as coordinator develops operational plan and monitors
execution
– Data collection and analysis by different subgroups following the components
– Subgroup reports submitted to the planning unit with data sheets as annexes
– Planning unit consolidates subgroup reports and submits to ReSAKSS with all data sheets for review
– Technical meetings and national validation workshops
– Finalization of national trends and outlook report
28
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Evolution of public agricultural expenditure (in million of $ US in 2008)
1
2
4
8
16
32
64
128
256
512
1024
2048
4096
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Bénin
Burkina Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Gambia
Ghana
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Sénégal
Sierra Leone
Togo
29
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Evolution of the agriculture share in the total public expenditure
0
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
Burkina Faso
Cote d'Ivoire
Gambie
Ghana
Liberia
Mali
Niger
Nigeria
Sénégal
Sierra Leone
Togo
Cible
30
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
MAPUTO DECLARATION MONITORING
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
Burkin
a Faso
Niger
Senega
lM
ali
Ghana
Gambia
Benin
Liberia To
go
Niger
ia
Sierr
a Leone
Côte d'
Ivoire
Mean 2000-2004 Mean 2005-2008 Target
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Breakdown of agricultural expenditure by economic use (average 2003-2007)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Burkina
Faso
Niger Mali Sénégal Nigeria Bénin Ghana Côte
d'Ivoire
Togo
Investment Recurrent
32
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Breakdown of agricultural expenditure by source of funding (average 2003-2007
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
Niger Burkina
Faso
Mali Togo Bénin Sénégal Côte
d'Ivoire
Ghana
Share of interna l resources Share of externa l Resources
33
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Distribution of agricultural expenditure by type (average 2004-2008)
24.8
61.7
2.1
12.7
0.0
33.9
53.0
21.9
13.5
6.5
1.6
0.9
12.0
22.7
14.1
7.8
17.5 0.0
8.7
17.7
56.164.6
46.2
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Ghana Benin Togo Burkina Faso Mali
Non desagregé
Autres
Intrants et equipements
Vulgarisation
Recherche et developpement
Irrigation
Admistration
34
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Agricultural growth in 2008 and 2003-2007
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Liberia
Senega
lM
ali
Niger
Burkin
a Faso
Gambia
Niger
ia
Sierr
a Leone
Ghana
Guinea
Cape V
erde
Benin
Guinea
Biss
au Togo
Côte d'
Ivoire
2008 2003-2007 Target
35
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Contribution of different sub sectors in ag growth in 2008
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Benin Burkina Faso Côte d'Ivoire Niger Nigeria Senegal Togo
Peche, foresterie
Elevage
Production végétale
36
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Distribution of agricultural exports by country 2000-2007
53.2%
20.0%
7.4%
5.0%
4.2%
3.3%
2.9% 1.7%
1.5% 0.6%0.1% 0.1%
Côte d'Ivoire
Ghana
Senegal
Mali
Nigeria
Benin
Burkina Faso
Niger
Togo
Guinea
Gambia
Cape Verde
37
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Distribution of agricultural exports by product in the region (2000-2005)
42.5%
15.0%
11.3%
5.6%
2.7%1.8%
1.8%1.7%1.3%1.1% Cocoa
Cotton
Wood and Timber
Fish and other aquaticProductsCoffe
Cashew Nut
Live Animals
Banana
Tobacco and Derivates
Palm Oil
38
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Structure of food imports (2003-2007)
22%
17%
13%
11%
7%
6%
5%3%
Rice
Wheat
Fish
Milk Products
Edible Oils
Sugar and sweets
Derivatives from Cereals and Milk
Meat
39
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Evolution of the agricultural trade balance
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
350%
400%
Côte d'
Ivoire
Ghana
Burkin
a Faso M
aliTo
go
Benin
Senega
l
Niger
Guinea
Niger
ia
Gambia
Cape V
erde
Ecowas
2003-2007 2008 Target
40
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Trend in food trade balance
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
120.0%
Côte d'
Ivoire To
go
Senega
l
Ghana
Niger
Burkin
a Faso M
ali
Benin
Guinea
Gambia
Cape V
erde
Niger
ia
2003-2007 2008 Target
41
FIRST CAADP M&E REPORT
• Changes in Welfare Indicators In West Africa (1990s – 2000s)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Poverty
Incidence
Per capita GDP Poverty gap
ratio
Share of
poorest quintile
Underweight
children
Stunted
Children
Undernourished
population
GHI
% Increase % Decrease
42
PROSPECTS
• Second phase of “consolidation and repositioning of ReSAKSS as the leading knowledge platform for agricultural policy planning and implementation in Africa, ... full operationalization at country level of CAADP M&E for African agricultural development by setting up operational country networks..”
• Hand over to REC’s
43
MERCI DE VOTRE
AIMABLE ATTENTION
44
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