cademartori great marshsymposium-1

Gregg Cademartori Planning Director City of Gloucester

Gregg Cademartori Planning Director City of Gloucester

• Why Gloucester – Why Now – What’s been done? • Consensus Building Institute – Managing Risk (2009) • Multi-Hazard Mitigation Plan (2010) • State Climate Change Adaptation Report (2009-2011) • Citywide LIDAR and GIS (2011-2012) • NOAA National Climate Assessment (2012) • MG Series and Spring Coastal Processes Forum (2013-2014)

• CZM Coastal Resilience Grants (Resources) • Study Overview – Important elements – public involvement

• Visualizing Change - King Tide the New Norm? (Oct ’14) • Questions

City of Gloucester

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning

Section 7 “…consider reasonably foreseeable climate change impacts, including additional greenhouse gas emissions, and effects, such as predicted sea level rise.” Section 9 “…convene an advisory committee to analyze strategies for adapting to the predicted impacts of climate change in the commonwealth.”

Consensus Building Institute – Managing Risk (2009) • Role play scenarios around

flooding and heat island effects

• Involved chairs and membership of land use boards, Mayor and staff provided roles in day long mock hearing

• “We need better data” to support decisions

Hazard Mitigation Plan (2010) • Inventoried critical

infrastructure and facilities • Assessed impacts from

multiple hazards • No significant separation of

climate change impacts from extreme weather or flooding

Climate Change Adaptation Report (2011) • Five areas of focus including: • Natural Resources & Habitat • Key Infrastructure • Human Health & Welfare • Local Economy & Govt. • Coastal Zone

• All focused on the “what’s

number to plan for?”

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Global Mean Sea Level Rise Projections

NOAA Technical Report Global Sea Level Rise Scenarios for the United States National Climate Assessment, December 2012

Maritime Gloucester Winter Coastal Workshops (Winter 14’) Climate Change Workshop • Maritime Gloucester • City of Gloucester • Gloucester UU Church • Coastal Zone Management • 90 participants • Identified need!

City of Gloucester

Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Planning

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Priority-planning

areas

Project Approach

Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development

Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies Public Outreach

Probability of occurrence

Con

sequ

ence

of i

mpa

ct

14

Priority-planning

areas

Project Approach

Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development

Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies Public Outreach

Probability of occurrence

Con

sequ

ence

of i

mpa

ct

15

Priority-planning

areas

Project Approach

Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development

Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies

Probability of occurrence

Con

sequ

ence

of i

mpa

ct

17

• Inundation maps based on standard “bathtub” model do not reflect dynamic nature of coastal flooding

• Does not account for joint flooding conditions • Does not include effects of infrastructure (e.g., dams)

Comparison of Proposed Methodology to Bathtub Approach

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Storm Climatology Includes both tropical and extra-tropical storm sets

• A Large Statistically robust set of storms

Advantages of Proposed Model

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Gloucester ADCIRC Model (Partial)

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Why do we need a sophisticated approach? The risk is high There are a lot of important factors

Bathymetric effects Storm types and parameters Coastline geometry Infrastructure Frictional effects

Coastal processes (waves, tides, etc.)

Dynamic model answers a number of additional questions

Flooding pathways can be significantly influenced by dynamic processes Achieve more detailed results to answer what is causing the flooding (e.g. waves, winds, etc.) Determine length and volume of flooding Test performance of engineering adaptations

Photo courtesy of outerbanksvoice.com

Advantages of Proposed Model

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Priority-planning

areas

VISUALIZATION

Phase I Sea Level Rise/Storm Surge Projections Scenario Development

Phase II Mapping Inundation Modeling Results Vulnerability/Risk Assessment

Phase III Develop Adaptation Strategies

Probability of occurrence

Con

sequ

ence

of i

mpa

ct

• Quick primer on Gloucester Tides • Frequency of King Tides • Conclude with images

• Beaches, harbors, coves, seawalls, roads, landings, buildings, marshes

• Infrastructure

Blynman Bridge

Causeway Street

Dunfudgin Landing

Inner Harbor

Lanes Cove

Lanes Cove

Good Harbor

Drone Flight Martin Del Vecchio

Infrastructure

Infrastructure

Modelling… Assessment…

Adaptation Strategies?

gcademartori@gloucester-ma.gov 978-281-9781