cannabis market in europe:cannabis market in europe: a growing
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Cannabis Market in Europe:Cannabis Market in Europe:Cannabis Market in Europe: Cannabis Market in Europe: A Growing Domestic MarketA Growing Domestic Market
(Fi t R lt )(Fi t R lt )(First Results)(First Results)
OFDT 3 d S d
Jean-Michel Costes, Christian Ben Lakhdar
Identifying Europe’s information needs 3 avenue du Stade
de France
93218 Saint-Denis
La Plaine cedex
Tel : 01 41 62 77 16
for effective drug policy
Lisbon, EMCCDATel : 01 41 62 77 16
Fax : 01 41 62 77 00
www.ofdt.fr
,7 May
Main goalsMain goals
t t d i f h bi ito get a good overview of where cannabis is coming from in Europe, domestic production, the types of products available, the market shares of different products amongst users, etc.To collect and analyse recent and reliable o co ect a d a a yse ece t a d e ab edata on different cannabis products potency in order to get an overview of levels andin order to get an overview of levels and trends in cannabis potency in Europe.
The Team
• Christian BEN LAKHDAR (OFDT)• Laurence DUJOURDY (IPSL)Laurence DUJOURDY (IPSL)• David WEIBERGER (INHES)
F b i BESACIER (IPSL)• Fabrice BESACIER (IPSL)• Nacer LALAM (INHES)
• Consultants: Les King (UK), Toine Spapens (NL)Consultants: Les King (UK), Toine Spapens (NL)
First resultsFirst results
Estimated volumes of cannabis used• Estimated volumes of cannabis used• Map of the cannabis routes• European cannabis markets: resin vs. herb• Price elasticity of the demand for cannabisce e ast c ty o t e de a d o ca ab s
products
Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used
197KgFigure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several
years: between 2003 & 2007).
372 1
929
8 611
290 1
28
2
350 000
400 000g years: between 2003 & 2007).
2 290
253 4
5223
6 253
250 000
300 000
924100 000
150 000
200 000
55 92
438
430
37 26
434
961
30 289
27 35
217
735
12 89
611
989
11 440
10 35
89 8
438 6
386 2
946 1
574 58
72 6
772 0
041 1
73
0
50 000
100 000
0
Spain
France UK
German
yIta
lyech
Republic
Poland
Belgium
Netherl
ands
Austria
Portug
alDen
markHun
gary
Slovakia
Irelan
dGree
ceNorw
ayFinlandBulg
aria
Sweden
Latvia
Lithu
ania
Estonia
Cyprus
Czec NSource: EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used
197KgFigure 1. Estimation of cannabis used per country in Kilos (several
years: between 2003 & 2007).
372 1
929
8 611
290 1
28
2
350 000
400 000g years: between 2003 & 2007).
Global volume : 1750 tons [1500; 1900]2 290
253 4
5223
6 253
250 000
300 000Global volume : 1750 tons [1500; 1900]
924100 000
150 000
200 000
55 92
438
430
37 26
434
961
30 289
27 35
217
735
12 89
611
989
11 440
10 35
89 8
438 6
386 2
946 1
574 58
72 6
772 0
041 1
73
0
50 000
100 000
0
Spain
France UK
German
yIta
lyech
Republic
Poland
Belgium
Netherl
ands
Austria
Portug
alDen
markHun
gary
Slovakia
Irelan
dGree
ceNorw
ayFinlandBulg
aria
Sweden
Latvia
Lithu
ania
Estonia
Cyprus
Czec NSource: EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
Estimated volume of cannabis usedEstimated volume of cannabis used
these estimations of volumes lead to a commercial retail value of 9.6 billions of euros [8.5; 10.8]. For comparison the European markets forFor comparison, the European markets for alcohol and tobacco are respectively worth 92 f 1 3 f92 billions of euros and 143 billions of euros(Euromonitor, 2007, 2008).( )
Indirect indicator: transit and final destination
Map 1. Ratio between the annual mean seizures of cannabis (2001-2006) and the estimations of annual volume of cannabis used by country (%)and the estimations of annual volume of cannabis used by country (%).
Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination
%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation
120
140% of cannabis used per country in %.
80
100 European mean: 60
80 26.15%
20
40
0
Spain
Greece
herla
nds
Portug
a lBelg
iumIre
land
Bulgari
a UKFranceSwed
enNorw
ay Italy
Denmark
Finland
Cyprus
Lithu
ania
German
yEsto
niaAus
triaSlov
akiaHun
gary
Poland
Latvia
Republic
GNeth
er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith
Ge E A Slo Hu PCze
ch Rep
Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination
%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation
120
140% of cannabis used per country in %.
80
100 European mean: 60
80 26.15%
20
40
0
Spain
Greece
herla
nds
Portug
a lBelg
iumIre
land
Bulgari
a UKFranceSwed
enNorw
ay Italy
Denmark
Finland
Cyprus
Lithu
ania
German
yEsto
niaAus
triaSlov
akiaHun
gary
Poland
Latvia
Republic
GNeth
er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith
Ge E A Slo Hu PCze
ch Rep
Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
Indirect indicator: front door, transit and final destination
%Graph 2. Ratio between annual mean of cannabis seizures (2001-2006) and estimation
120
140% of cannabis used per country in %.
Front Door Final destination countries
80
100
Transit countries
countries
60
80 Transit countries
20
40
0
Spain
Greece
herla
nds
Portug
a lBelg
iumIre
land
Bulgari
a UKFranceSwed
enNorw
ay Italy
Denmark
Finland
Cyprus
Lithu
ania
German
yEsto
niaAus
triaSlov
akiaHun
gary
Poland
Latvia
Republic
GNeth
er Po Be I Bu F Sw No De F C Lith
Ge E A Slo Hu PCze
ch Rep
Source: UNODC, EMCDDA, INPES.Estimations: OFDT, INHES, IPSL.
Extra European Cannabis RoutesExtra European Cannabis Routes
Netherlands
Albania
Czech Rep
Morrocco
Cannabis market : resin vs herbCannabis market : resin vs. herbRatio of Seizures of herbal cannabis and cannabis resin between 2001 and 2006.
resin herb
Cannabis market : prices trendCannabis market : prices trend
H b l C bi C bi R i
Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*)
Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37%Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57%S th E 7 52% 20 73%Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73%Western Europe 15,22% 11,98%
A th t f th E i 2 70% 6 56%Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56%
* Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions** Czech Republic Excluded Czech Republic ExcludedSource: EMCDDA
Cannabis market : prices trendCannabis market : prices trend
H b l C bi C bi R i
Table 1. Growth rate of deflated average prices of cannabis products (European sub-regions*)
Herbal Cannabis Cannabis Resin Eastern Europe** -28,64% -19,37%Northern Europe 10,13% -39,57%S th E 7 52% 20 73%Southern Europe -7,52% 20,73%Western Europe 15,22% 11,98%
A th t f th E i 2 70% 6 56%Average growth rate of the European regions -2,70% -6,56%
* Based on the UNO composition of geographical sub-regions** Czech Republic Excluded Czech Republic ExcludedSource: EMCDDA
Price elasticity of cannabis demandPrice elasticity of cannabis demand
Resin vs HerbResin vs HerbPrice Parity Purchase Power(European standard)Cross-sectional analysis (EuropeanCross-sectional analysis (European countries)Age and Sex of users (monthly users)
Price elasticity of demand for ResinPrice elasticity of demand for Resin
Price elasticity of demand for HerbPrice elasticity of demand for Herb
Price elasticity of demand for HerbPrice elasticity of demand for Herb
ConclusionConclusion
On-going issues:On going issues:
European Domestic Production issue.p
Typology of growersyp gy g
And Potency of cannabis products.y p
OBSERVATOIRE FRANÇAIS DES DROGUES ET DES TOXICOMANIES
(French monitoring Centre for Drug Addiction)
3, Avenue du Stade de France93218 St Denis la Plaine cedex93218 St Denis la Plaine cedex
Tel : + 00 33 (1) 41 62 77 16 - Fax : + 00 33 (1) 41 62 77 00( ) ( )
Email : ofdt@ofdt.fr - Website : www.ofdt.fr
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