carbon neutrality in the transport sector for … · • carbon neutrality (top down) trajectories...
Post on 26-Mar-2020
8 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
1 17/06/19 1
CARBON NEUTRALITY IN THE TRANSPORT SECTOR FOR PORTUGAL - 2030 & 2050 Francisco Ferreira June 2019
2
energy transporta,on waste agriculture forests land use
circular economy
Carbon Neutrality
EMISSIONS AND REMOVALS OF GREENHOUSE GASES (CO2, CH4, N2O, F-gases) 2050
= 0 tCO2e
+ + + +
3
Methodology
Energia e Processos IndustriaisProdução de eletricidade e calor, refinação, residencial, serviços,
indústria, agricultura e transportes
Mobilidade
Agricultura
Florestas
Resíduos e Aguas Residuais
Economia Circular
Narrativas & Cenários
Macroeconómicos:
Fora de PistaPelotão
Camisola Amarela
• Políticas em Vigor• Tecnologias (bottom up)• Neutralidade Carbónica
2050 (top down)
Pres
supo
stos
Trajetórias para a Neutralidade
Carbónica
Opções setoriaisOpções TecnológicasCustos (Investimento
& evitados)Impacto
Macroeconómico
Processo de construção participado
Consulta a peritos
Ciclo de #7 workshops técnicos
Sessões de apresentação de
resultados preliminares
Consulta Pública
Setores
Envo
lvim
ento
al
arga
do d
a so
cied
ade
Gases Fluorados
• Policies in force • Technologies (bottom up) • Carbon neutrality (top
down)
Trajectories for Carbon
Neutrality
Sectorop/onsTechnological
op/onsCosts(investments
&avoided)Macroeconomic
PublicConsulta/on
Preliminaryresults
presenta/onsessions
7technicalworkshops
Par/cipatoryconstruc/onprocess
Expertconsulta/on
Macroeconomic Narra,ves &
Scenarios
Off-Track Pack
Yellow Jersey
Assu
mp,
ons
Exte
nsiv
e so
ciet
y in
volv
emen
t
CircularEconomy
FluorinatedGases
WasteandWastewater
Forests
Agriculture
Mobility
EnergyandIndustrialProcessesElectricityandheatgenera/on,
refinery,housing,services,industry,agricultureandtransporta/on
Sectors
4
>HighlyCompe//vePortugal
>Stabiliza/onofthephysiologicalbalanceandsubstan/alincreaseofthemigratorybalanceleadingtopopula/onrecovery
>Growthofmediumci/esandreduc/onofthepopula/onconcentra/oninMAs
>Greaterdegreeofdecentraliza/onanddigi/za/onoftheenergysystem
>Greaterentrepreneurship
>GreaterCircularityoftheEconomy
>Highpenetra/onofnewformsofmobility(sharedandsoR)
>Predominanceoforganicandconserva/onfarming;valoriza/onofexternali/es(ecosystemservices);
Three Possible Futures...
YELLOWJERSEYPACK
>Compe//vePortugal
>Demographicdeclineislesssevere,duetotheeffectofthemigratorybalance
>Popula/onConcentra/oninMAs
>Conserva/veevolu/onofcurrentproduc/onstructures,butwithtechnologicaldevelopmentandefficiencyincrease
>ModerateCircularityoftheEconomy
>Moderateadherencetonewformsofmobility(sharedandsoR)
>Organicorintegratedagriculturalproduc/on
OFF-TRACK
>Uncompe//vePortugal
>Demographicscon/nuetobeindecline
>Popula/onconcentra/oninMAs(MetropolitanAreas),depopula/onofthecountrysideandmediumci/es
>Maintenanceofcurrentproduc/onstructures
>Circularityatlowlevels
>Similarmobilitypa_ernstocurrentones,(lowadherencetonewformsofmobility)
>Conven/onalfarming;produc/onpaymentsarepredominant
Off-TrackPlatoon YellowJersey
5
Carbon Neutrality is Possible in Portugal in 2050
6|-0,06Mt1|-3Mt
Off-Track
Pack
Yellow Jersey
History
% of emissions reduction
6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2015 2020 2030 2040 2050
Mt C
O2e
Sectoral Emissions Un,l 2050
>Deepdecarboniza/oninthenexttwodecades(2020-2040)
- Energyproduc/on,- Mobilityandtransporta/on,- Housing
>Industryandagriculturesectorshavealowerdecarboniza/onpoten/alun/l2025/30,butcontributewithsignificantreduc/onsonthe2040-2050period>Effec/veagroforestrymanagementisadeterminingfactorfortheobjec/veofcarbonneutralityin2050
WasteAgricultureTransporta/onBuildings&OthersIndustryEnergy
Pack YellowJersey
7
Role of Endogenous Resources in the Energy System
*Doesn’tincludeavia/onandinterna/onalmarineresources
> Carbonneutralityleadstoamassiveuseofrenewableendogenousresourceswithaposi/veeffectonthecountry’senergybillandenergysecurity
> In2050,endogenousresources(ofwhich>2/3aresunandwind)representmorethan80%ofprimaryenergyconsump/oninbothscenarios
2050
2040
2030
2015 DE:78%
DE:57%
DE:31%|30%
DE:17%|14%
-44%|-41%
YellowJerseyPack
CarvãoProdutos Petrolíferos Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos
não renováveis
Produtos Petrolíferos Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não
renováveis
Produtos Petrolíferos
Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não renováveis
Produtos
Petrolíferos
Gas NaturalRenováveis + Resíduos não renováveis
396 PJ 227 PJ 172 PJ 136 PJ
275 | 285 PJ 226 | 222 PJ 143|154 PJ
383 | 402 PJ 110 | 97 PJ
65|75 PJ
439 | 481 PJ
NetElectricityImports
OilProducts
OilProducts
OilProducts
NaturalGas
NaturalGas
NaturalGas
NaturalGas
OilProducts
Renewable+NonRenewableWaste
Renewable+NonRenewableWaste
Renewable+NonRenewableWaste
Renewable+NonRenewableWaste
Coal
8
5% | 8%
67% | 66% 9% | 9%
53% | 50% 13% | 13%
10%|11%
10% | 10%
33% | 33% 25% | 24% 17% | 16% 12% | 14%
42% 26% 11% 8%
9% |9%
8%
11% | 10%
7%|6%
5%|4%
4%
3%
4% 1%
2% 2%
1%3%
Energy Transi,on| Total Final Energy Consump,on
26%64%
9%11%
26%64%
11%
-25%|-22%
2050
2040
2030
2015>Reduc/onoffinalenergyconsump/onin2050between21%and24%comparedto2015>Reduc/onofenergyintensitybymorethan50%>Increasingelectrifica/onoftheeconomy,alreadyvisiblein2030,withincreasedintegra/onofrenewablesinfinalenergyconsump/onby2050>In2050,morethan65%ofthefinalenergyconsump/onwillbeelectricity>Steepreduc/oninoilproductconsump/on
IE:36|33tep/M€
IE:44|42tep/M€
IE:57|56tep/M€
IE:72tep/M€
FER:46%
FER:72a73%
FER:86a87%
YellowJerseyPack
WasteSolarThermal
CoalElectricity
OilProductsHeatCogenera/on
NaturalGas
LPG
Biomass Geothermal
9
Energy Transi,on| Final Energy Consump,on Per Sector
26%64%
9%11%
64%
11% -25%|-22%
2050
2040
2030
2015>Transporta/onisthesectorwiththegreatestenergyprofiletransforma/on,goingfromthemostrepresenta/vesectortooneoftheleastrepresenta/veinfinalenergyconsump/on
37% 30% 13% 17%
35% | 34% 30% | 31% 15% 18%
39% 22% | 23% 16% | 15% 20%
43% 18% | 19%
18% |17% 18%
3%
3%
3%
4%|3%
Transporta/on
Industry
Housing
Services
Agriculture
10
The Electricity Sector Transi,on
2015
2030
2040
2050
INSTALLEDCAPACITY(GW) 52/54GW
Hydro.
Hydro
Pumping
Central.PVOnshoreWind
OffshoreWind
Gas
Ba_eries
Biomass/waste/biogas
+32/34GW
Onsho
re
Wind
Hydro
Coal
FuelGas
HydroPumping
Biomass/waste/biogas
PVcentral.EólicaOnshore
Central.PVOnshoreWind
Hídrica.
HydroDecentral.PV
PVdescentral.
HydroPumping
Hídricabombag.
Ba_eries
Gás
Central.PVDecentral.PV
OnshoreWind Hydro
HydroPumping
Ba_eries
Gas
YellowJerseyPlatoon
23GW
30GW
42GW
> Securityofsupplyisguaranteedby:§ Technologicalcomplementarityand
diversificaHonofrenewableinstalledcapacity
§ Thermalcapacity:naturalgas-dedicatedplantsupto-andincluding-2040(PegoandLares)|CHPtobiomassandnaturalgasby2050(1.7GW|3%oftotalcapacity)
§ BaKeries+hydrowithpumping(about6.6GWin2050|about12%totalcapacity)
§ H2andVEproducHonthatcanstoreandsupplyelectricity(V2G)ifnecessary
11
2020 2030 2040
+2x
2050Coalpowerplantsdecommissioningby2029
Solarcapacitymatcheswindcapacity
Off-Shorewindsurpasses1GW
BaKeriesbecomecost-efficient
associatedwithdecentralizedsolar
(2020-2030)
Totalinstalledcapacityis2xcurrentinstalledcapacity
Ba_eriesrepresent3%|4%oftotalinstalledcapacity
Hydroproduc/onwithoutpumpingdecreases9%comparedto2020duetowateravailabilityreduc/on
H2
H2
ElectricityusedforH2produc/on:2%|4%ofelectricityproduc/on
BaKeriesrepresent6%oftotalinstalledcapacityBaKeries+hydrowithpumping13%|12%oftotalinstalledcapacity
Off-Shorewindbecomescost-efficient
(2030-2040)
Eletricidadeu/lizadaparaproduçãodeH2:5%|7%daproduçãodeeletricidade
Photovoltaicsolarproduc/onbegins
togainrepresenta/veness
Naturalgaspowerplants
decommissioningaZer2040
%ofFER 59 88|86 97 100
%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005) CO2-38 -83|-84 -98-93|-94
Solarproduc/onrepresents50%oftotalcapacity
Decentralizedsolarproduc/ongainsrepresenta/veness
The Electricity Sector Transi,on YellowJerseyPlatoon
12
FrameworkEmissionsfromtransport
Transportes
Outrossetores
RepresentaHvidadedosetor
13
Source:InventárioNacionaldeEmissões(APA,2018)(1)Apenasconsideramovimentosemterritórionacional;ParaaviaçãoincluiLTOinternacional
15522ktCO2eq(2015)
SubsectorsRoadtransportemissions2015
FrameworkEmissionsfromtransport
14 1Fonte:DGEG/Eurostat,2018
• Perentageofrenewableenergysources(RES)(20151):7,4%
• Electricityconsump/onbyrailwithreducedweight
• Totalenergyconsump/on(20151):5608ktep
• Setorwithhighestimportcontribu/onthroughprimaryenergyneeds
Passengertransport-modeTP:12%
TP:19%Pkmem%Occupancy:17%[ML:24%|MP:19%|MST:10%]
Carreirasurbanas/suburbanas:16%[Carreirasinterurbanas:21%]
Useofpublictransport(TP)in2015
Gásnatural
Eletricidade
FrameworkEnergyconsump/on
15
1 2 3 4 5
Mobilidade2050
ElectricficaHon
UrbanizaHon
MulH/intermodulaty
Autonomy/connecHvity
Sharing
Thefutureofmobilitywillbemodifiedbysocietalchange(eg.Sharingeconomy),technilogicalprogressincludingIoTandbigdata),bynewplayersandbusineesmodels(eg.mobilityasaservice)
FrameworkGlobaltendencies&disrup/vechanges
16
Mudançade
paradigma
AlteraçõesdebaseaosistemadeT&M
- Perfisdemobilidade- Repar/çãomodal- Morfologiadosetor USOPARTILHADO
min
USOINDIVIDUAL
Tipologiadeu,lização
NíveldeAu
tono
miadosveículos
MAX
MethodologyInclusionofglobaltendencies
17
Mobilitydemandevolu/onPassengers
18
“Classic”publictransport
Allpublictransport+sharing
Mobilitydemandevolu/onModalsharinginpublictransport
19
Publictransportshort-distancedemandbysharing
Assump/onsSharingandautonomousvehiclesuselevels
Autonomousvehicleinthefleet
20
YellowJerseyPackOff-Track
Trajetóriadene
utralid
ade
20
FINALENERGYCONSUMPTION-TRANSPORTS
21
ROADPASSENGERS
22
ROADBUS
Ø Short-distanceuseelectricity
Ø Long-distancewithbiofuels and/oralterna/ves
23
ROADFREIGHT
24
RAILPassengers Freight
25
AVIATIONPassengers Freight
26
SHIPPING
Ø Sh ipp ing i s one o f t he l e s sdecarbonizedsectors
Ø Long-distancewithLNGandbiofuels
Ø Short-distancewithelectricity
27
The Mobility and Transporta,on Sector Transi,on Pack
Biofuelsrepresent1/4ofenergyconsump/on
BUS:ElectricityandBiofuelsreplacedieselin2050
EV:100%ofmobility
Electrifica/onofshort-distanceavia/on
Petrolisnolongercost-
efficient
Dieselisnolongercost-
efficient
H2andelectricitymeet50%of
demand
EVwithba_erymeet30%of
demand
BeginningofEV
mainstreaming
Passengers
Goods
Autonomousand/orsharedvehicles
ensure1/3ofmobility
EV:Reaches1/3ofmobility
Transi/ontoelectricity,mee/ng
totaldemandby2030
Biofuelsrepresent1/4ofenergyconsump/on
Vehicleswithcatenary
becomecost-efficient
%ofElectrifica/on
EnergyConsump/on(PJ)%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005)
%ofFER
28
The Mobility and Transporta,on Sector Transi,on
YellowJersey
BUS:ElectricityandBiofuelsreplacedieselin2050
EV:100%ofmobility
Electrifica/onofshort-distanceavia/on
Petrolisnolongercost-
efficient
Dieselisnolongercost-
efficient
H2andelectricitymeetnearly2/3of
demand
BeginningofEV
mainstreamingAutonomousand/or
sharedvehiclesensurenearlyhalf
ofmobility
EV:Reaches1/3ofmobility
Biofuelsrepresent1/4ofenergyconsump/on
%ofElectrifica/on
EnergyConsump/on(PJ)%ofGHGReduc/on(comparedto2005)
%ofFER
H2meets1/3ofdemand
Vehicleswithdynamicloadingsystemreach60%ofdemand,withtheremainderbeingmetbyH2
Vehicleswithdynamic
loadingmeet20%of
demand
Passengers
Goods Transi/ontoelectricity,mee/ng
totaldemandby2030inlightgoodsvehicles
29
Photovoltaicsolarproduc/onbeginstogainrepresenta/veness
Coalpowerplantdecommissioningby2029
Solarequalswindproduc/oncapacity
Ba_erystoragerepresents3%oftotalElectroproduc/onsysteminstalledcapacity
SolarsurpasseswindproducHoncapacity|decentralizedsolarproduc/ongainsrepresenta/veness
Solarrepresents50%oftotalproduc/oncapacity
Ba_erystoragerepresents6%oftotalElectroproduc/onsysteminstalledcapacity
Off-shorewindproduc/onbecomescompe//ve
2%ofelectricityisusedinhydrogenproduc/on
Off-shorewindproduc/oncapacitysurpasses1GW
5%ofelectricityisusedinhydrogenproduc/on
Renewableproduc/oncapacitydoubles
NaturalgaspowerplantsdecommissioningaZer2040
Forestarea4307000haForestarea
4194000ha
Hydroproduc/onwithoutpumpingdecreases4%comparedto2020duetowateravailabilityreduc/on
Totalburnedarea|155000ha/year
Totalburnedarea|68000ha/year
Precisionagriculture100000haOrganicandconserva/onagriculture50000ha
Precisionagriculture300000haOrganicandconserva/onagriculture300000ha
Cul/vatedagriculturalarea|1318631ha
Cul/vatedagriculturalarea|1320041ha
Precisionagriculture300000haOrganicandconserva/onagriculture150000ha
+24%|55%hor/culturalarea
+6%|36%orchardarea
Upto+18%cerealarea
Totalburnedarea|155000ha/year
32%ofindustryenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbyNaturalGas
SolarThermalforindustrylowtemperatureheatproduc/onbecomescompe//ve
Industryelectricityconsump/onincreases1.5x
Upto15%ofindustryenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbyNaturalGas|Represents90%oftotalconsump/on
Upto6%ofindustryheatneedsaresa/sfiedbysolarthermal
Inhousing,16%ofwaterhea/ngenergy
consump/onissa/sfiedbysolar
Heatpumpssa/sfy15%ofcooling/hea/nghousingenergydemand
Insula/onmeasuresallowfora4%reduc/oninenergyconsump/on
Inhousing,solarrepresentsupto11%oftotalenergyconsump/on
Inhousing,solarrepresentsupto11%oftotalenergyconsump/on Inhousing,upto83%
ofwaterhea/ngenergyconsump/onissa/sfiedbysolar
-82%reduc/oninurbanwastelandfilling
Upto9%reduc/oninurbanwastegenera/onpercapita
Highdevelopmentofrecyclinglines
upto80%foodwastereduc/on
Upto25%reduc/oninurbanwastegenera/onpercapita
BeginningofEVmainstreaming
Lightpassengervehicles:33%ofmobilityiselectric
Dieselnolongercost-efficientforlightvehicles
Lightgoodvehicles:electricitynearlymeetstotaldemand
Heavygoodsvehicles:hydrogenandelectricitymeetatleasthalfoftotalmobilitydemand
Heavypassengervehicles:electricityandbiofuelreplacedieselby2050
Lightpassengervehicles:autonomousand/orsharedvehiclesensureatleast33%ofmobility
Lightpassengervehicles:100%ofmobilityiselectric
OrganicferHlizersreplacesynthe/c,andrepresentmorethan80%ofnitrogenusedinsoils
%ofRenewablesinelectricityProduc/on
%ofelectricityintotalenergyconsump/on
Greenh
ouseGasemissions(M
tCO2e)
top related