cde’s growth model & growth within ccsd
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CDE’s Growth Model &Growth within CCSD
Assessment & Evaluation, October 2012
District Accountability Handbook CDE – School and District Accountability guidelineshttp://www.schoolview.org/RegionalTraining.asp SPF Technical Guidehttp://www.schoolview.org/PerformanceFrameworks.asp Video/training materials on SPF http://www.cde.state.co.us/media/training/SPF_Online_Tutorial/player.html
CDE RESOURCES
Creating Meaning:
How will I recognize “notable change” in performance over time?
Factors that Influence the “significance” of a score change
Many factors can influence the interpretation of a difference between two numbers. Leaders must consider all before ascribing noteworthy status to a change in a percent, mean, or median.
How Certain We Need To Be
Statistical conventions in scientific research often call for high levels of certainty (90%-99%) that require very large differences for “significance.” If we are satisfied being "fairly certain," then lesser changes can be regarded as “notable.”
Pre-Existing Differences Between Groups
Statistical comparisons begin with an assumption that groups to be compared are the same in every way except for the intervention. If two groups begin with very different characteristics, then differences in % P/A or growth may be due pre-existing difference.
Size of Comparison Groups
A difference of 5 percentage points can be significant when both groups being compared are large but insignificant when the groups being compared are small.
Multiple Points over Time
A 2% or 3% change may not be statistically significant from one year to the next. However, if percent values change by 2 or 3 points over several successive points in time, then the overall change may be significant.
How will I recognize "notable score change" over time?
General “rules of thumb” for identifying percent P/A changes that may be significant between a moderate to high level of certainty:
Most Classrooms
Most Elementary Grades
Most Middle School Grades
Most High School Grades
District Results
Approx.Number of Students
About 20-30 students
About 75-125 students per grade
About 400 students per grade
About 600 students per grade
About 4000 students per grade
Approx.Percent change
13-20 percentage points
6-12 percentage points
4-8 percentage points
2-5 percentage points
1-3 percentage points
These are approximate guidelines. The larger the difference, the more certain we can be that it is not due to chance.
School Performance Framework Indicators
Achievement
Percent Proficient and
Advanced• Reading
(TCAP, Lectura, and CoAlt)
• Writing (TCAP, Escritura, and CoAlt)
• Math (TCAP and CoAlt)
• Science (TCAP and CoAlt)
Growth
Actual Growth & Target Growth
• TCAP Reading, Writing and Math
• Median Student Growth Percentiles
• Adequate Median Student Growth Percentiles
Gaps
Growth Gaps
Median Student Growth Percentiles for disaggregated
groups:• Poverty (FRL)• Race/Ethnicity• Disability• English
proficiency• Below
proficient
Postsecondary and Workforce Readiness
Colorado ACT
Graduation Rate
Dropout Rate
SPF: PurposeTo define the type of plan your school must create for submission to CDEI. PerformanceII. ImprovementIII. Priority ImprovementIV. Turnaround
Performance Improvement Priority Improvement
Turnaround
All Cherry Creek Schools were assigned to either Performance or Improvement plans (most to Performance).
SPF Sample
SPF Sample• CELA growth is
added to the growth section.
• Distinguish between adequate growth targets and actual median percentile growth.
• The State defines minority students as “non-white.” District KPIs provide a better picture of growth for students of color.
Growth IndicatorKEY CONCEPTS FOR UNDERSTANDING GROWTH
Actual Growth and Adequate GrowthCatching Up and Keeping Up
For StudentsSGP – Student Growth Percentile
AGP – Adequate Growth Percentile target
For SchoolsMGP -Median Growth Percentile
Median Adequate Growth target
Office of Assessment & Evaluation
For each student, the State calculates a Student Growth Percentile (SGP) for the current year
The SGP is based on the comparison of a student’s growth to growth in his or her State “academic peer group”
SGPs are normative
Some students’ SGP calculations use TCAP/CSAP data from several years, while others reflect only 2 data points
STUDENT GROWTH PERCENTILES (SGP) INDIVIDUAL STUDENT GROWTH
School Median Growth Percentiles
Student Pctls Sorted Pctls Median Pctls4578993211915567431077
Median Growth for this school is 55
Search for the middle value…
Student growth percentiles
REVIEW
Basis for "% Meeting/Exceeding Target Gain":
Adequate Growth Percentile (AGP)Adequate Growth Percentiles: Are Students Growing Enough?
• For each student, the State projects growth paths in order to calculate an AGP for the current year.
• The AGP is based on the calculated projection of how much a student needs to grow.
Students Below Proficient need to grow enough to “Catch Up,” or become Proficient in 3 years or by Grade 10
Students Proficient or above need to grow enough to “Keep Up,” or remain Proficient or above for 3 years or until Grade 10
Calculating AGP Growth to Catch Up to Proficient
Each year for each student, the State projects the growth necessary for that student to score at or above Proficient in 3 years or by grade 10
N o t P r o fi c i e n t
P r o fi c i e n t7th grade 8th grade 9th grade 10th grade6th grade
76 is the minimum-this student’s adequate growth TARGET
808595 76
2010 2011 2012 20132009
Calculating AGP Growth for Proficient+ Students to Keep Up
Each year for each student, the State projects the growth necessary for that student to continue to score at or above Proficient for 3 years or until grade 10.
7th grade 8th grade 9th grade 10th grade6th grade
N o t P r o fi c i e n t
P r o fi c i e n t
2010 2011 2012 20132009
38251250
50 is the maximum -this student’s adequate growth TARGET
Pair & Share
What does the “Adequate Growth Percentile” calculation mean for classrooms with a high proportion of very Unsatisfactory or low scoring Partially Proficient students?
What does the AGP calculation mean for classrooms with high proportions of Advanced or high Proficient students?
CSAP/TCAP Growth on BObj Reports
• BObj growth reports offer administrators and instructional leaders a variety of ways to explore and disaggregate CSAP/TCAP growth results from the Colorado Growth Model.
• Most BObj growth reports are designed in a “crosstabular” form that allows the user to view results by row for students in each prior year’s CSAP/TCAP performance level (A, P, PP, US) and for all students (bottom row).
CSAP/TCAP Growth on BObj Reports
Low, Typical, and High Growth The percent of students with Student Growth Percentiles (SGPs) in Low, Typical, and High ranges, and at or above the 50th percentile (the State median or average).
Average Growth The median is the middle value in a rank ordered list of SGPs for this group of students. The larger the group of students, the more reliable the information from this statistic .
% Target Gain The percent of students who demonstrate Adequate Growth defined by CDE, or growth sufficient to Catch Up (reach Proficient in 3 years or by grade 10) or Keep Up (stay at or above Proficient for three years or until grade 10).
Student Growth Percentiles (SGP) from the Colorado Growth Model
tell us how a student grew compared to other students in the
State with the same CSAP performance starting point.
CSAP/TCAP Growth on BObj Reports
KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
Understanding Cherry Creek School’s
KPI’s and New Racial/Ethnic Categories
The new federal racial/ethnic categories prompt a change in district reporting of results for our two racial/ethnic groupings (“White/Asian” and “Black/Hispanic/Native American”):
Students in the Multi-racial category will be grouped:
• White/Asian: Students with any combination of White, Asian, and/or Pacific Islander
• Black/Hispanic/Native American Indian: Any students with a racial/ethnic identification that includes Black and/or Native American
NOTE: Regardless of how many races are chosen, Hispanic students are not considered multi-racial
Achievement Status & Achievement
Growth
CSAP achievement status
on most recent tests
10 points
CSAP achievement growth
over 2 most recent consecutive tests
30 points
Equity Among Student SubGroups
CSAP achievement status differences
5 points
CSAP achievement growth differences
15 points
Post-Secondary Readiness
Colorado ACT performance~
most recent tests
10 points
High School graduation rates~ prior year
10 points45 total points
for growth
Key performance indicators KPI Reports
CCSD Key Performance Indicators (KPI)
•TCAP Status•TCAP GrowthExcellence
•TCAP Status Equity•TCAP Growth EquityEquity•ES/MS: 3rd Reading/ EXPLORE•HS: COACT, Graduation Rate
College Prep
CCSD KPI OverviewTotal points are summed across all elements. The final percent of points earned is the result of total points earned divided by the total points possible. For middle & elementary schools, the total number of points possible is 70. For high schools, the total possible is 80.
KPI Reports, Summary page
Excellence: TCAP GrowthThe State longitudinal growth percentile allows us to compare the average growth of our students with average growth for students in the State with similar starting points.
The objective is for CCSD schools to meet or exceed the State median growth percentile for students with similar performance starting points (i.e., median growth percentiles at or above 50).
Rubric* Rating Pts
>=60th pctl Exceeds 1550th - 59th pctl Meets 1035th - 49th pctl Approaching 5
<35th pctl Does Not Meet 0
Cherry Creek Schools Office of Assessment & Evaluation CSAP_Longitudinal Growth on Data Access System from CDE student data fileResults include all students with valid CSAP scores in 2007 & 2008 EXCEPT students who participated in CSAP-Alternate, were expelled or withdrew during testing, or were new to the school after October 1.
School N Median Pts N Median Pts N Median PtsX 1,000 50.0 10 998 53.0 10 1,003 57.0 10 30 66.7% 20.00 XY 1,093 56.0 10 1,114 55.0 10 1,111 55.0 10 30 66.7% 20.00 YZ 725 52.0 10 724 55.0 10 721 55.0 10 30 66.7% 20.00 Z
State 50
School
Reading Writing Math Total Rubric Pts
(45 Possible)
% of Poss Rubric Pts (Total 45)
Element Pts Earned
(Total Poss 30)
RUBRIC POINTS-15 points possible per content area, Total Possible=45. ELEMENT POINTS= % Rubric Pts x 30
KPI Reports
Note:Similarities & Differences
Excellence: CSAP Performance IndicatorHow is this KPI similar to or different from the SPF performance indicator? What areas are “red” or “blue” (weakest or strongest) on each report?
Excellence: CSAP Growth IndicatorHow is this KPI similar to or different from the SPF performance indicator?Note any similarities or differences in the degree to which your school meets or exceeds growth expectation on both systems. What areas are “red” or “blue” (weakest or strongest) on each report?
SPF, KPI Reports, Notes Page
The objective is for all student subgroups in CCSD to meet or exceed the State median growth percentile for students with similar performance starting points (i.e., median growth percentiles at or above 50).
Equity: TCAP Growth
Rubric* Rating Pts
>=60th pctl Exceeds 1550th - 59th pctl Meets 1035th - 49th pctl Approaching 5
<35th pctl Does Not Meet 0
Cherry Creek Schools Office of Assessment & Evaluation CSAP Longitudinal Growth on Data Access System from CDE student data fileResults include all students with valid CSAP scores in 2007 & 2008 EXCEPT students who participated in CSAP-Alternate, were expelled or withdrew during testing, or were new to the school after October 1.Calculations are included for all four ethnic groups regardless of numbers of students. Native American Indian student groups are not summarized due to very small N's across all grades & schools.Student program labels are taken from the CSAP test booklets and preprinted labels.
(Reading shown. Rubric Points totaled across Reading, Writing, and Math.)
School N
Median SGP
WHITE Pts N
Median SGP
ASIAN Pts N
Median SGP
HISPAN Pts N
Median SGP
BLACK Pts
Total RD Rubric Points
(60 Poss)X 602 49.0 5 82 55.0 10 138 51.0 10 173 48.0 5 30Y 809 54.0 10 108 67.0 15 90 55.5 10 83 55.0 10 45Z 225 48.0 5 40 60.0 15 196 54.0 10 261 52.0 10 40
State 50
READING RUBRI C POI NTS-15 points possible within each Student Subgroup, Total 90 Rubric Points Possible
Calculations included for all four ethnic groups regardless of numbers of students. Native American Indian student groups arenot summarized due to very small N's across all grades & schools. Student program labels are taken from the CSAP test booklets and preprinted labels.
X XY YZ Z
130 72.22% 10.83130 72.22% 10.83
115 63.89% 9.58
Total Rubric Pts Earned-All
Content & Ethnic Groups
% of Possible
Rubric Pts (Total 180)
Element Pts Earned
(Total Poss 15) SchoolSchool
TOTAL ELEMENT POINTSRUBRI C POINTS-15
points possible per content area & student subgroup,
Total Possible=180
ELEMENT POINTS= % RubricPts x 15
Calculations included for all four ethnic groups regardless of numbers of students. Native American Indian student groups arenot summarized due to very small N's across all grades & schools. Student program labels are taken from the CSAP test booklets and preprinted labels.
KPI Reports
District Performance Plan (DPP) District Performance Plan
Creating Meaning:
What types of information should I look for
on reports?
Multiple perspectives on results yield a complete summary picture
• Remember the fable of the 6 men in the dark trying to describe an elephant?
• What do we need to see in order to get a “complete picture” of summary performance and growth?
Levels of Summary Analysis and Views of Summary Results
Views of Results
Overall More Specific
Details
Levels of Analysis
Overall Conten
tStanda
rdsBenchmark
s
Levels of Summary Analysis:"Whole to Part”
Entire School
Grade Level
Classroom/ Student
Different views of TCAP results for a complete picture
TCAP BObj reports provide several “lenses” through which to examine school results. From different views, you can create a complete picture of summary school performance and growth.
Average/Median or overall %P/A.
Distributions.
Trends.
Disaggregations.
Comparisons
Overall ResultsAll Schools Change Report (pdfs emailed and on COLE)
and5-Year Performance Summary (BObj)
Results for Student Subgroups5-Year Ethnic Summary (BObj) and
Disaggregated Summary (BObj)
Standards & SubContent AreasStandards & SubContent Area Summaries
TCAP GROWTH Results on BObjA&E’s “Pick Three”
Overall medians over time for all schoolsPerformance for Subgroups
Overall medians, crosstabs, % in high, middle,
and low growth levels, some disaggregations
In what ways do the following report “picks” provide:1. Multiple Views Of Summary Results
Overall %P/A, Distributions, Trends, Disaggregations, Comparisons
2. Multiple Levels of Summary AnalysisOverall
Standards
Benchmarks
Levels of Analysis
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