cfo update - aak€¦ · cfo update fredrik nilsson, cfo . 2 the co-development company ......
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CFO Update
Fredrik Nilsson, CFO
2 The Co-Development Company
Good progress in the focus areas presented at the CMD 2014
Strengthen growth through:
Organic growth Customer co-development New markets
Selective acquisitions Capital efficiency
Working capital management
3 The Co-Development Company
AAK’s Performance from January 2010 a history of success
Market capitalization multiplied by
3.2x
Operating profit improvement*
+10%
* Average January 2010 – December 2015 (analyst consensus, 8 November 2015)
Dividend increase*
~ +9%
EPS improvement*
+15%
4 The Co-Development Company
Q1-3 2015
Q1-3 2014 Change %
Income statementVolumes ('000 MT) 1 342 1 241 101 +8%Sales 14 848 12 958 1 890 +15%Operating profit* 1 023 899 124 +14%Operating profit per kilo* 0,76 0,72 0,04 +5%Earnings per share 16,52 14,03 2,49 +18%
Financial positionEquity ratio 50% 42% 8% -Net working capital 3 309 3 406 -97 -3%Net interest-bearing debt 2 035 2 886 -851 -29%Net debt / EBITDA 1,12 1,79 -0,67 -37%
Cash flowCash flow from operating activities 1 075 197 878 +446%Cash flow from investing activities -467 -661 194 -29%Free cash flow 608 -464 1 072 -
Key financial disclosures
* Excl non-recurring items
5 The Co-Development Company
Continuous y/y improvements YTD Q3 Q2 Q1
Volume (’000 MT)
Reported +8% +2% +12% +11%
Organic +4% +3% +4% +3%
Operating profit (SEK million)
Reported +14% +14% +16% +12%
Fixed FX and comp. units +4% +7% +4% +1%
EPS (SEK) +18% +12% +30% +12%
6 The Co-Development Company
Net debt has decreased due to strong operating cash flow SE
K m
illion
2 035
1 439 69
85 199
467
284
2 508
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
Net debt12/2014
EBITDA pluschange in
working capital
Paid interest Paid tax Capex net Dividend Other items Net debt9/2015
7 The Co-Development Company
10,0%
12,5%
15,0%
17,5%
20,0%
22,5%
25,0%
27,5%
30,0%
Q12011
Q22011
Q32011
Q42011
Q12012
Q22012
Q32012
Q42012
Q12013
Q22013
Q32013
Q42013
Q12014
Q22014
Q32014
Q42014
Q12015
Q22015
Q32015
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
WC days (rolling 3 months) WC in % of sales
Working capital days* – rolling 3 months
28 days in improvement or
SEK 1,200 million
* Inventory + Accounts receivables - Accounts payables
The Co-Development Company 8
Raw material prices
10 percent change in all raw material prices will effect working capital by +/- SEK 250 million Time lag of six to nine months
9 The Co-Development Company
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Rolling 12 months Quarter
Quarter
Q3 2015
Q4 2014
EBIT (R12M) 1,395 1,262
Fixed assets 5,596 5,428
Working capital 3,310 3,301
ROCE 15.7 14.5
ROCE
10 The Co-Development Company
Strong financial foundation supports strategy execution
Dec 2009 Dec 2010 Dec 2011 Dec 2012 Dec 2013 Dec 2014 Sep 201520%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Equity ratio
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
Q1
10Q
2 10
Q3
10Q
4 10
Q1
11Q
2 11
Q3
11Q
4 11
Q1
12Q
2 12
Q3
12Q
4 12
Q1
13Q
2 13
Q3
13Q
4 13
Q1
14Q
2 14
Q3
14Q
4 14
Q1
15Q
2 15
Q3
15
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
Net Debt Net Debt/EBITDA
Equity ratio Net Debt and Net Debt/EBITDA
SE
K m
illio
n
11 The Co-Development Company
Structure of loans and borrowings Net debt end of September SEK 2,035 million
0250500750
1 0001 2501 5001 7502 000
Uncommitted 2018 2019 2020 >2020
Maturity profile of interest-bearing debt (SEK million)
SE
K m
illio
n
Average maturity of long-term loans is 4.6 years
Main financing sources EUR 400 million club loan
Maturing in H1/2020 + 1Y SEK 1 400 million multi currency facility
Maturing in H1/2018 + 1Y
Other facilities SEK 500 million, mortgage loan SEK 350 million, other facilities
12 The Co-Development Company
Dividend policy Strive to pay stable dividend linked to the long term performance – 30 to 50% of the consolidated profit after tax
SEK
milli
on
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
2010 2011 2012 2013 201450
100
150
200
250
300
Dividend Dividend/Net profit Annual increased dividend
13 The Co-Development Company
EPS and DPS evolution
2011 2012 2013 20140
5
10
15
20
25
EPS DPS
SEK
+11% +14% +13%
14 The Co-Development Company
Geographical profit generation
Europe
41% Asia/Africa
11% North and
South America
47%
15 The Co-Development Company
Follow up on the ”Management ambition”* SE
K m
illion
*As expressed at the Capital Market Day November 10, 2010 and at fixed exchange rates ** November 8, 2015, excl. estimated acquisition costs in Q4 2015: SEK 12-15 million
**
16 The Co-Development Company
Investing for future growth
SE
K m
illio
n
17 The Co-Development Company
Possible volume growth from acquisitions and greenfields
(’000
MT)
18 The Co-Development Company
Key topics on the CFO’s agenda
Performance management
Strong balance sheet
Organic volume growth
EBIT improvement
Selective acquisitions
Working capital management
CAPEX management
Support and challenge
Evaluate new opportunities
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