challenges, risks & opportunities in a changing arctic environment - state of the arctic

Challenges, Risks & Opportunities in a Changing Arctic Environment

David W Titley, Rear Admiral USN (ret.), Ph.D. Professor of Practice, Penn State Meteorology Director, Center for Solutions to Weather & Climate Risk September 30, 2015

State of the Arctic

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•   It’s  Changing    •   It’s  not  a  Vacuum  •   It’s  Time  to  get  Ready  

The  Arc8c  is  about  our:    •   Security  •   Access  •   Sovereignty    

Bo>om  Line  Up  Front  

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Arc$c  Sea  Ice  (1994  –  2012)  

Arc$c  Sea  Ice  Volume  (1980  –  2013)  

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Arc$c  Considera$ons  

One  Scenario  

+    

=    

Today  

Northern Sea Route  2025: 6 weeks open  41’ controlling draft

Transpolar Route  2025: 2 weeks open  Deep ocean transit

Northwest Passage  2025: intermittently open  33’ controlling draft

Sea Routes

Arctic Ice Coverage  Arc$c  Trade  Routes:    Today  &  Tomorrow  

                               Crossroads    

Sea  route  distances:            Distance  from  the            Bering  Strait  to            Ro>erdam                          

Courtesy:    US  Navy  

M/V  NORDIC  ORION    Summer  Cruise  2013  

The  Polar  Orbiter  Strategic  High  Ground  

Separated by a common lexicon: Arctic? High North?

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Arctic Sea Ice Forecast

JPSS

Composite water depth chart created from sparse data

•  Ice  breakers  •  Ice  hardened  USN  &  USCG  vessels  •  Observa@ons  •  Naviga@on  surveys  and  infrastructure  •  Arc@c  domain  awareness  •  Bases  for  support  •  Port(s)  •  Energy  infrastructure  •  Communica@ons  

Required  Capacity  

Awareness,  Presence  &  Infrastructure  

•  Elevate  US  Arc8c  Commitments  and  Engagement  •  Build  Founda8ons  for  Sustainable  Responsible  Economic  Engagement  •  Ensure  Safety  and  Security  of  Arc8c  Oceans  and  Borders  

•  Arc8c  Security  Forces  Roundtable  (ASFR)  •  Conven8on  on  Law  of  the  Sea  

•  Develop  Broad  Coopera8on  with  Russia  on  Arc8c  Resource  Use  •  Forge  Long-­‐term  Public-­‐Private  Partnerships  and  new  Coordina8ng  Mechanisms  

A Way Ahead

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Discussion  

dwt12@psu.edu  @dw8tley