china-india border issues and northeast india: a view from ...sigur/assets/docs/goswami_2013.pdf ·...

China-India Border Issues

and Northeast India: A View

from India Namrata Goswami, Ph.D.

USIP/IDSA

May 08, 2013

Map of the North East

MISHMI

TANI

G NAGA

KUKI-CHIN

T I B E T A N

Major Ethnic profile of the India-China-Myanmar Trans-borders

Menba(China) Adi,Nishi,Bengni,

Hill Miri,Tagin,Apatani & Mising(India)/ Lhoba(China) -Lhoba(China) Hkamti(Myanmar) Kachin(Myanmar)/ Jingpo(China)

M Y A N M A R

I N D I A

C H I N A

The Chicken’s neck I N D I A

BHUTAN

SHAN

B U R M A N

Arunachalis

E

E

1

C

D C

D

E

G

KHAMTI

SINGPHO

A

MONPA

A

B

MEMBA

F

LISU

1

MEITEI

F

F

B A N G L A D E S H

Significant Factors

Disputed Border and Territorial Claim.

Tibet as the Core Issue.

Balance of Military Forces.

Military Exercises

Infrastructure Development

India US Relationship

Local Perceptions on the disputed border

Negotiations

Future Scenarios

Upper Brahmaputra, from a NASA shuttle, 200 km from the earth.

Strategic Territory

China – India Border:McMahon line

Brahmaputra River

B U R M A I N D I A

C H I N A

BHUTAN

Tawang

McMahon Line

Chinese claimed border

P L A

P L A

TIBET AS CORE

Sections

Balance of Military Forces.

Military Exercises.

Local Perceptions

China’s Missile Deployment

Source: http://blogs.fas.org/security/2008/05/extensive-nuclear-deployment-area-discovered-in-central-china/

Rapid Deployment

Infrastructure

India-US Relationship

Local Perspective on the Border

Complexity of the Negotiations

1993 Agreement: Agreement on the Maintenance of Peace

and Tranquility along the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the India

- China Border Area

1996 Agreement: CBMs in the Military Field

2003 Agreement: Declaration on Principles for Relations

and Comprehensive Cooperation

2005 Guiding principles

Stalled? Fixed Positions? Swap?

Future Scenarios

Deterrence Signaling

Local Strength

Governance and Riparian Issues

Transparency?

Accepting status quo?

Military balance

The recent dispute in Ladakh