china’s future nuclear force infrastructure
Post on 06-Oct-2021
3 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
CHINA’S FUTURE NUCLEAR FORCE INFRASTRUCTURE
NOTIONAL BREAKOUT SCENARIO
November 20-21, 2013
Mark A. Stokes
East Asian Alternative Nuclear Weapons Futures Workshop Stanford University
www.project2049.net
Overview
• Scenario Assumptions
• Baseline Force Structure
• Strategic Drivers and Operational Requirements
• Acquisition Management
• Warhead Engineering R&D and Production Infrastructure
• Notional Operational Infrastructure in Breakout Scenario
• Conclusions
Scenario Assumptions
• Current inventory of 250 nuclear warheads
• CMC entrusts Second Artillery Force as sole PLA warhead custodian
• Centralized storage and handling under Second Artillery central warhead storage and handling complex in central China (Base 22)
• Domestic political considerations are primary factors determining size of arsenal – security more important than operational effectiveness
• Concealment of actual warhead inventory size allows for minimal number
• Small number of warheads available under each of six corps-level missile base
• At least one warhead is programmed, produced, and supplied for each nuclear-capable missile
• Breakout scenario of 1500 warheads by 2025
• Parallel surge in production of missile systems and other delivery vehicles
• Expansion of CAEP industrial capacity
• No fissile material constraints
• Adjustments within a static PLA organizational structure
Policy Approval/Validation
CMC/Politburo
Force Planning and Operational/Technical
Requirements Development
•Second Artillery Headquarters Department •Second Artillery Equipment Department
Acquisition Management
GAD and Second Artillery Equipment Department
Engineering R&D and Manufacturing
CASC/CASIC
CAEP
Operational Infrastructure
Second Artillery Headquarters Department
Warhead/Missile Base
Pathway toward a PLA Nuclear Expansion
Second Artillery General Headquarters Organizational Structure
Headquarters Department • Chief of Staff
• Deputy Chiefs of Staff • Operations • Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance • Communications • Engineering
Political Department • Propaganda • Organization and Discipline • Cadre
Logistics Department • Transportation • Supplies and Fuel • Infrastructure/Barracks • Budget
Equipment Department • S&T Research • Special Equipment Management • Procurement • Equipment Research Academy
• At least five subordinate research institutes
Direct Reporting Regiments
• Geodesy • Strategic Communications • Logistics Depot • Missile Component Readiness • Solid Motor Readiness • Electronic Warfare • Special Vehicle Training • Intelligence
Commander
Wei Fenghe Zhang Haiyang
Political Commissar
Engineering Divisions • 308 Engineering Command • Engineering Technology Group
SECOND ARTILLERY COMMAND
Headquarters Department Political Department Logistics Department Equipment Department
Headquarters Department Headquarters Department Headquarters Department Headquarters Department
Political Department Political Department Political Department Political Department
Propaganda Department
Organization Department
Discipline and Inspection Department
Cadre Department
Operations Department
Military Affairs Department
Training Department
Intelligence Department
Engineering Department
Communications Department
Transportation Department
Materials Department
Supplies and Fuel Infrastructure Department
Infrastructure and Barracks Department
Health Department
General Planning Department
S&T Research Department
Special Equipment Management Department
Procurement Department
Second Artillery General Headquarters Organizational Structure
Baseline Nuclear Force Structure
SECOND ARTILLERY BASE-LEVEL ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURE
Commander • Three Deputy Commanders
Political Commissar • Three Deputy Political Commissars
Launch Brigades
• Six launch battalions, two companies each • Communications Battalion • Technical Battalion • Site Management Battalion
Base-Level Support Units
• Training Regiment • Transportation Regiment • Warhead Regiment • Ground Equipment Repair Regiment • Communications Regiment • Missile Depot Regiment (selected)
Base Headquarters Staff
• Headquarters Department • Political Department • Logistics Department • Equipment Department
Taibai Central Warhead Storage Complex*
(22 Base)
• Warhead Inspection Brigade • Munitions Inspection Regiment • Warhead Storage Regiment • Transportation Regiment • Training Regiment • Repair Regiment • Communications Regiment
* Possible function as alternate national command center
Central Nuclear Warhead Storage and Handling Complex
Base 22 Baoji
(96401 Unit)
Unknown Institute (96412 Unit)
Equipment Inspection Institute
(96411 Unit)
Technical Service Regiment (96421 Unit)
Transportation Regiment
(96422 Unit)
Training Regiment (96423 Unit)
Vehicle Maintenance Regiment
(96424 Unit)
Communications Regiment
(96425 Unit)
Contingency Response Regiment
(96425 Unit)
Baseline Nuclear Force Structure
Base 51 • 806 Brigade (Hancheng; prob DF-31) • 810 Brigade (Jinzhou; poss mixed) • 816 Brigade (Tonghua; prob DF-21) • 822 Brigade (Laiwu; DF-21C)
Base 52 •807 Brigade (Chizhou; prob DF-21) •811 Brigade (Qimen; prob DF-21)
Base 53 • 802 Brigade (Jianshui; prob DF-21) • 808 Brigade (Yuxi; poss DF-31) • 8XX Brigade (Qingyuan; poss DF-21)
Base 54 •801 Brigade (Lingbao; prob DF-5B) •804 Brigade (Luanchuan; prob mixed) •813 Brigade (Nanyang; prob DF-31) •8XX Brigade (Xinyang; OT&E unit for new system
Base 55 •803 Brigade (Jingzhou; prob DF-5) •805 Brigade (Shaoyang; prob DF-31) •814 Brigade (Huitong; prob DF-4)
Base 56 • 809 Brigade (Datong; poss DF-31) • 812 Brigade (Tianshui; DF-31A) • 823 Brigade (Kurle; prob DF-21)
North Sea Fleet First Submarine Base
Two Type 094 (12 tubes each)
South Sea Fleet Second Submarine Base
Two Type 094 (12 tubes each)
Base 22 Central Warhead Depot Complex
? ?
www.project2049.net
SECOND ARTILLERY INFRASTRUCTURE
52 Base 96151 Unit
Huangshan, Anhui Province
Headquarters Department Political Department Logistics Department Equipment Department
818 Brigade 96169 Unit
Meizhou DF-11
819 Brigade 96162 Unit
Ganzhou DF-15
820 Brigade 96164 Unit
Jinhua DF-15
827 Brigade 96166 Unit
Shaoguan Poss DF-16
8XX Brigade 96170 Unit
Putian Poss DF-11A
96171 Unit Training
Quzhou, Zhejiang
96172 Unit Transportation Xiuning County
96173 Unit Warhead
Jingdezhen
Yong’an
96174 Unit Repair Factory Xiuning County
96175 Unit Communications
Huangshan
96176 Unit Missile Component Depot
Shangrao
815 Brigade 96165 Unit
Shangrao DF-15B
807 Brigade 96161 Unit Chizhou City
DF-21
811 Brigade 96163 Unit Qimen City
DF-21
817 Brigade 96167 Unit
Yong’an DF-11A
Missile Base Organization and Baseline Force Structure
Nuclear • Six launch battalions per brigade • Two launch companies per battalion (12 companies per brigade)
• One launcher assigned to each launch company • At least one missile/nuclear warhead programmed and available for each launcher
• At least 12 missiles and 12 nuclear warheads notionally programmed and available for each nuclear-capable brigade
Conventional • Six launch battalions under brigade • Two launch companies per battalion (12 companies per brigade)
• Three launchers per launch company • At least one missile/conventional warhead programmed and available for each launcher
• At least 36 missiles/conventional warheads notionally available per brigade • Reporting of 1000+ conventional SRBMs available for six brigades
Strategic Drivers and Operational Requirements Why Would the Politburo/CMC Want an Expanded Nuclear Force?
• Political “Rush to Parity?”
• Bureaucratic politics/military parochialism?
• Defense industry push?
• Threat perception, calculated deterrence/counter-coercion, and/or or doctrinal shift?
• Technology push?
Acquisition Management Who Would Be Responsible for Planning, Programming, and Equipping an Expanded
Force Structure?
• Second Artillery Equipment Department manages missile system acquisition programs based on broad CMC and General Armaments Department (GAD) policy guidance
• Five-seven research institutes under Second Artillery Equipment Research Academy responsible for conceptual design, program validation, proof of concept, etc
• Second Research Institute appears to be responsible for warhead-related electronic components and safety issues • New strategic planning office • Defense industry military representative system • Role of operational test and evaluation (OT&E) units
CASC First Academy Design Department •Large solid motors: CASC Fourth Academy •Nuclear Warhead: CAEP •Re-entry vehicle structures: CASC First Academy14th RI •Guidance, nav, control system: CASC First Academy 12th RI •Final Assembly: CASC First Academy 211 Factory
CASIC Fourth Academy Design Department • Medium-diameter solid motors: CASIC Sixth Academy or 066 Base • Nuclear Warhead: CAEP • Re-entry vehicle structures: CASC First Academy14th RI • Guidance, nav, control system: CASIC Fourth Academy 17th RI • Final Assembly: CASIC Fourth Academy 307 Factory
Defense Industrial Engineering R&D System
• GAD oversees technology development and manages acquisition of nuclear warheads as a major missile sub-system
• GAD S&T Committee as senior CMC advisory group on defense technology • S&T Committee director carries grade equal to a military region leader • GAD S&T Committee Expert Working Groups:
• Nuclear weapons technology • Testing technology • Nuclear safety
•863 Program Expert Working Groups
• 863-804: Inertial Confinement Fusion
• GAD Services Department
• Second Artillery Bureau (Nuclear Technology Bureau)
• GAD 21 Base (63650 Unit; Malan Special Weapons Test Base)
• Northwest Institute of Nuclear Technology
Acquisition Management Who Would Be Responsible for Planning, Programming, and Equipping an Expanded
Force Structure?
China’s Space And Missile Industrial Structure
Academies • Roughly analogous to a US corporate business division
Design departments
• Systems integration responsibilities Research institutes
• Sub-systems, sub-assemblies, components, and materials Factories
• Manufacturing and assembly
NOTIONAL MRBM ACQUISITION AND DESIGN SYSTEM
CMC State Council
SASTIND/SASAC
Second Artillery Equipment Department
Equipment Research Academy • Costing Center • 1st Research Institute • 2nd Research Institute • 3rd Research Institute • 4th Research Institute
• Preliminary Research • Feasibility Studies • PA&E • Concept Validation • Tactical and Technical Outline [战术 技术指标] • Full Life Cycle Support Plan • R&D Conceptual Design • Program Management Office • Design Finalization
Industrial Representative Bureau
CASIC Fourth Academy
Program Manager Chief Designer
Structure
Propulsion
Post Boost Vehicle/ Warhead
Guidance/Control
Launcher
Manufacturing
Testing
4th Design Dept
CASIC Sixth Academy •or Ninth Academy Solid Motor
CASC First Academy 14th RI CAEP
CASIC Fourth Academy 17th RI • or CASC First Academy 12th RI
CASC First Academy 15th RI
307 Factory
4th Design Dept
Operational Test and Evaluation Unit 96219 Unit (Qingyuan, Guangdong Province)
•“Seed Unit” formed with initiation of R&D Engineering Phase •Linkage between warfighters, acquisition, and industry • First unit equipped (eg., 96219 Unit, Qingyuan)
GENERAL ARMAMENTS
DEPARTMENT
863 Program Expert Working Groups 863-7 and 863-8 领域
S&T Committee Expert Working Groups
Key National/Defense Labs
Gen
eral
Sta
ff D
epar
tmen
t • S
trat
egic
Pla
nnin
g D
epar
tmen
t
Sec
ond
Art
ille
ry H
ead
qu
arte
rs D
epar
tmen
t
R&D and Operational Testing 25 Base (Taiyuan)
Preliminary Research R&D Program Validation System R&D Design Finalization
China Aerospace Science and Industry Corporation
Central Special Committee Design Finalization Committee
Party Committee
Institute of Fluid Physics First Institute
Institute of Nuclear Physics and Chemistry
Second Institute
Institute of Chemical Materials Third Institute
Institute of Integrated Engineering Fourth Institute
Institute of Electronic Engineering Fifth Institute
Institute of Machining Technology Sixth Institute
Sichuan Institute of Materials Processing
Seventh Institute
Laser Fusion Research Center Eighth Institute
Institute of Applied Electronics 10th Institute
CAEP Computing Center Southwest Computing Center
12th Institute
Institute of Applied Physics and Computational Mathematics
Ninth Institute
Shanghai Institute of Laser Plasma
11th Institute
• General Office • Integrated Planning Department • S&T Department • Personnel Training Department • People’s Armed Department • Propaganda Department • Technical Supervision Department
CHINA ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING PHYSICS Party Committee S&T Committee
• Engineering Department • Beijing Graduate Student Department • Material Department • Defense Conversion Department • Public Affairs Management Department • S&T Information Center
CMC State Council
Warhead Engineering R&D and Production Infrastructure
Military Representative Offices
Notional Operational Infrastructure in Breakout Scenario
• Expansion of operational infrastructure
• Current conventional force structure as model: three launchers per company
• Limited number of new brigades equipped with mobile MIRV’d ICBM
• Expansion and delegation of warhead storage and handling responsibilities to base level
• Base 22 as reserve depot • Expansion of missile (CASC/CASIC) and warhead (CAEP) final assembly plants (and supply chain)
• CASC 211 Factory/CASIC 307 Factory
• CAEP Sichuan Institute of Materials Processing (Seventh Institute/903 Factory)
• Larger arsenal = greater transparency?
Conclusions/Other Considerations
Extended range dual capable ballistic and land attack cruise missiles
• Expanded range variants of DF-21C and/or new model
Navy and Air Force Nuclear Capabilities • Air- and possible sub-launched launched land attack cruise missiles • Type 094 sub and JL-2 SLBM: who controls the warheads? • Future PLA “Strategic Command?”
Increasingly complex missile defense countermeasures • On-board jammers • Hypersonic cruise vehicles • Reduced radar cross section • Maneuvering re-entry vehicles
Greater lethality • Fourth generation nuclear weapons • Tailored warheads for hard and/or deeply buried targets • High powered microwave or other radiofrequency warhead
Multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs) • Probable MIRV variant of silo-based DF-5 (DF-5B) • Possible new solid fueled, road mobile intercontinental ballistic missile
top related