civilian casualties in the colombian conflict: a new approach to human security

Civilian Casualties in the Civilian Casualties in the Colombian conflict: A New Colombian conflict: A New

Approach to Human Approach to Human SecuritySecurity

Jorge Restrepo, Michael Jorge Restrepo, Michael SpagatSpagat

Washington, DCWashington, DCAugust, 2004August, 2004

IntroIntro Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas Colombian conflict – left-wing guerrillas

(FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal (FARC, ELN), right-wing illegal paramilitaries (AUC) and government paramilitaries (AUC) and government forcesforces

We have a great dataset on the conflict – We have a great dataset on the conflict – more than 21,000 events, actors, types of more than 21,000 events, actors, types of events, georeferencing, casualties, etc.events, georeferencing, casualties, etc.

We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed We focus on civilian casualties, analyzed by actor and event typeby actor and event type

Main FindingsMain FindingsThe main human security threats are (in The main human security threats are (in

order):order): Paramilitary massacres in isolated Paramilitary massacres in isolated

rural areas (killings)rural areas (killings) Guerrilla massacres in isolated rural Guerrilla massacres in isolated rural

areas (killings)areas (killings) Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural Guerrilla bombings in isolated rural

areas and the five biggest cities areas and the five biggest cities (injuries)(injuries)

Total Civilian Killings and Total Civilian Killings and InjuriesInjuries

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Civilians injured Civilians killed

Casualties 1988-2003Casualties 1988-2003

0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000

Total

Combatants

Civilians

During Clashes During attacks

Type of action Description1 Aerial bombardment Aerial attack from an airplane or helicopter. 2 Ambush Surprise attack by concealed people lying in wait.3 Anti-kidnapping operation Attempted rescue of kidnapped people or hostages.4 Armed Robbery Stealing or looting by an armed group.5 Artillery attack Shooting of artillery or other heavy fire from armed personnel

carriers.

6 Attack on means of transport Damaging cars, buses, trucks, trains, etc..7 Bombing Detonation of an explosive device not covered in categories

1, 12, 16 and 17.

8 Check point and/or road blockage

Search of vehicles and questioning of occupants and/or blocking of public road.

9 Electoral interference Disruption to electoral process such as an attack on a voting booth.

10 Generic attack Information is insufficient to determine the precise type of attack.

11 Harassment to fixed position Minor action against a fixed structure or place, such as a police station, military base or town, without attempting to take the position.

12 Incursion Entry into a town or village.13 Infrastructure attack Actions against energy transmission networks, pipelines,

roads, railroads, etc.

14 Local police station attack Assault on a local police post (CAI in Spanish).15 Mass kidnapping Simultaneous kidnapping of more than 4 people.16 Massacre Killing of more than three defenceless people with some

selectiveness against either the people killed or the place where they are killed.

17 Mine explosion Explosion of a land mine.18 Other government offensive

operationsNormally actions asserting control over territory such as patrolling.

19 Propaganda explosion Detonation of device that spreads propaganda pamphlets.

20 Raid Judicially sanctioned searches.21 Taking of town or village Entry into a town or village leading to at least temporary

control.

Portfolio of Attacks: Portfolio of Attacks: Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas Paramilitaries vs. Guerrillas

Civilian Casualties in Attacks Civilian Casualties in Attacks by Groupby Group

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government Other

Civilian Killings: Guerrilla Civilian Killings: Guerrilla AttacksAttacks

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Check point and/or road blockage Massacre Incursion Bombing

Civilian Killings: Paramilitary Civilian Killings: Paramilitary AttacksAttacks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Massacre Incursion Check point and/or road blockage

Civilians Injured by GroupCivilians Injured by Group

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Government Guerrilla Other Paramilitaries

Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla Civilian Injuries: Guerrilla AttacksAttacks

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Bombing Incursion Mine explosion

Civilians Killed Per Attack by Civilians Killed Per Attack by GroupGroup

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government

Casualties by event typeCasualties by event type

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Massacre Bombing Incursion Mine explosion

Civilians Injured per Attack by Civilians Injured per Attack by GroupGroup

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

Guerrilla Paramilitaries Government

FARC vs. ELN casualties in FARC vs. ELN casualties in attacksattacks

Civilian Casualties per Attack: Civilian Casualties per Attack: FARC vs. ELNFARC vs. ELN

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003

ELN Ratio of Casualties to attacks FARC Ratio of Casualties to attacks

Civilians killed in massacres by Civilians killed in massacres by the paramilitaries: CDF the paramilitaries: CDF

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 5 7 9 12 >15

Population density: people per square kilometre

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e

Civilians killed in massacres by Civilians killed in massacres by the guerrillas: CDF the guerrillas: CDF

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.1 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.9 5 7 9 12 >15

Population density: people per square kilometre

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e

Civilians injured in guerrilla Civilians injured in guerrilla bombings: CDF bombings: CDF

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49

Population density: people per square kilometre

Cum

ulat

ive

shar

e

ConclusionConclusion We can pinpoint the forms of civilian We can pinpoint the forms of civilian

casualties in attacks with known authors casualties in attacks with known authors with remarkable specificity.with remarkable specificity.

More than 1/3 of them are accounted for More than 1/3 of them are accounted for by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres by paramilitary and guerrilla massacres and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural and guerrilla bombings in isolated rural areas.areas.

Add in guerrilla bombings in the five Add in guerrilla bombings in the five biggest cities and we have almost 40% of biggest cities and we have almost 40% of the casualties.the casualties.

ConclusionConclusion In other words rural security is the In other words rural security is the

big problem but there is a serious big problem but there is a serious urban terrorism issue as well.urban terrorism issue as well.

Colombia is notably lacking in strong Colombia is notably lacking in strong local security institutions, to a large local security institutions, to a large extend due to the country’s sad extend due to the country’s sad history of abusive paramilitarismhistory of abusive paramilitarism

ConclusionConclusion There are significant pockets of local There are significant pockets of local

wealth, in particular, big landowners wealth, in particular, big landowners and cattle farmers that must be and cattle farmers that must be tapped to support local security.tapped to support local security.

We will need more good micro data We will need more good micro data on conflict to fulfil a larger research on conflict to fulfil a larger research programme.programme.