climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning
Post on 16-May-2015
1.090 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
Climate analogues for climate change adaptation planning
Eike Luedeling
GRP5
Climate change
NASA-GISS, 2009. www.giss.nasa.gov
Climate change
Annual rainfallchange (mm)
CCCMA modelA2a scenario
2080s
Climate change impacts
Climate change impacts
Schlenker and Lobell, 2010. Environmental Research Letters 5, 014010 (8 pp)
Projected yield changes by 2050M
illet
Sorg
hum
Mai
ze5th percentile Mean 95th percentile
Impa
ct (p
erce
nt)
Adaptation / Mitigation
How can we adapt?
How can we be sure that adaptation is appropriate?
How can we mitigate?
How can we be sure that mitigation is
sustainable?
How to take adaptation and mitigation measures that are quantitatively appropriate for expected
impacts of climate change?
Open questions
Modeling climate change impacts
Annual rainfall (CCCMA model; A2a scenario; 2080s)
+Ecological
or agricultural
models
Climate projections
Impact projection
=
Climate change impacts
Hertel et al., 2010. Global Environmental Change – Human and Policy Dimensions 20, 577-585
Projected yield changes by 2030
20
0
-20
-40
% Y
ield
Cha
nge
South Africa maize
US maize
Malawimaize
US wheat
China wheat
EU wheat
Canada wheat
India rice
China rice
Indonesia rice
Brazil soy
High productivity
Central outcome
Low productivity
Modeling climate change impacts
Winter chill for temperate fruit trees
Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.
Modeling climate change impacts
Winter chill for temperate fruit trees
Luedeling et al., PLoS ONE, in press.
Colorful maps… what do they mean to decision makers?
Sometimes a lot, normally not much!
Limitations to modeling
Tree life cycle
Yield
Winter chill
Summer heat
Pest pressure
Pruning
Weather extremes
Diseases
Many systems are too complicated to model
Limitations to modeling
Bad models…
Luedeling et al., 2009. Agriculture, Ecosystems and
Environment 133, 23-31.
Chilling Hours
Utah M
odel
Pos. Utah
Dynam
ic
Chilling Hours
Utah M
odel
Pos. Utah
Dynam
ic
Many models are by definition
unsuitable for climate change
analysis
How quantitatively reliable are model projections?
Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?
Mean monthly temp in Africa
Present
Similar?
Similar?
FutureCCCMA
A2a2080
Somewhat similar?
Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?
Mean monthly temp in Africa
Present
Similar?
Similar?
FutureCCCMA
A2a2080
Somewhat similar?
Most projected climates for a given location exist elsewhere at present!
Where are they?
Can we learn lessons from climate analogues?
Climate analogue analysis – an alternative approach?
Possible lessons
What crops are grown?
How have farmers adapted to local climate?
What social safeguards are in place?
What political measures are taken?
What is the carrying capacity?
How to find analogues
Climatic distance
2FP2
FP2
FP PrecPrecTminTminTmaxTmaxdistClim
Monthly values
How to find analogues
Climatic distance
2FP2
FP2
FP PrecPrecTminTminTmaxTmaxdistClim
How to find analogues
Climatic distance
2FP2
FP2
FP PrecPrecTminTminTmaxTmaxdistClim
Normalization
Monthly values
Weights (depending on objective)
How to find analogues
Climatic distance
2)(distClimionnormalizat
XXweight FP
X months
X can be
Monthly mean temperatures and precipitationMore complicated climate variables (mean length of dry
spells, etc.)Agroclimatic indicators (e.g. growing degree days)
…
The analogue tool (prototype)
Analogue tool
Programmed in R
Data entry…
Excel tables and climate grids
The tool
Gridded climate data for many scenarios
Polygon vectorExtract regional dataset,
change resolution,make scenario list
Site position (or name)
Extract projection data from regional (or global) dataset
For each scenario
Calculate climate distance to each point in baseline
Produce outputs for scenario
Summarize scenario outputs
Evaluate analogue locations
Outputs
as .html page
Analogue list
Correspondence plot
Correspondence plot
Mean daily precipitation
Mean daily maximum temperature
Mean daily minimum temperature
Climatic distance map
Climatic distance map
Analogue map
Analogue map
What else happens there? – Google Earth
What else happens there? – Google Earth images
B
A
Analogue pathways
What else happens there? Raster evaluation
Aridity index (Precipitation / PET)
Distributions over 50 closest
analogues per scenario
Any gridded dataset can be
sampled
What else happens there? Raster evaluation
Potential yield of rainfed maize (low intensity)
Distributions over 50 closest
analogues per scenario
Measure of vulnerability to climate change?
Data from IIASA, 2009
Agroforestry and climate change
Agroforestry may reduce farmers’ vulnerability to climate change
But tree-based systems may also be vulnerable to climate change, because trees must be supported…
every year...
for decades…
Climate analogues can help find out if trees are likely to survive
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Approach
Known parkland locations Climatic data layers
Phillips et al. 2006. Ecological Modelling 190, 231–259
Ecological niche modeling – Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt)
Requires occurrence input (species, ecosystems)Characterizes environment based on GIS layers (climate)
Calculates suitability score for all locations within study extent
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Approach
Known parkland locations Climatic data layers
MaxEnt suitability
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Approach
Known parkland locations Climatic data layers
MaxEnt suitability
Input for Climate Analogue Analysis
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Ségou Zinder
Old Peanut Basin
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Old Peanut Basin
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Old Peanut Basin
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Old Peanut Basin
MaxEnt suitability score for parkland
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Ségou
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Ségou
Ségou
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Ségou
MaxEnt suitability score for parkland
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Zinder
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
Zinder
Zinder
Suitability of Sahelian locations for parklands
Climate Analogue Analysis
MaxEnt suitability score for parkland
Next steps
Add non-climatic variables to analogue finding procedure
Test the usefulness of analogues in field surveys
Make the tool into a useable application (web-based)
Thanks for your attention!
e.luedeling@cgiar.org
Asante sana!
Asante sana!
Asante
sana!
Asante sana!
Asante sana!
Asante sana!
Asante
sana!
Asante sana!
Asante sana!
Climate change impacts
Burke et al., 2009. Global Environmental Change 19, 317-325
2025 2050 2075
Overlap between historic and simulated seasonal temperatures
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Novel crop climates in Africa’s maize growing region
top related