climate change adaptation: marine biodiversity and fisheries - colin creighton

K E Y M E SS A G E S –

1- Portfolio approaches are essential

2- Climate change information needs are synergistic

3- Climate change science challenges are both specifi c & generic

Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &

Fisheries

3 - Climate change science challenges are both specifi c

& generic– quality science is always our goal and expected by our community, especially in a very confused policy space

Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &

Fisheries

1 - Attr ibut ion– Cl imate change dr ivers and o ther s t ressors [ the 5% or the thresho ld i ssue]

2 - Var iabi l i ty – C l imate change and a var iab le c l imate , env i ronment , recru i tment success , management arrangements e tc [e .g . the sand cas t le debate ]

3 - Extremes– – a low f requency h igh sever i ty event may be agenda set t ing [ f requency versus sever i ty p lo t ]

4 – Synergies , feedbacks, interact ions and unforeseen consequences – do we rea l l y unders tand our sys tems? [ in tegrat ion on a l l sca les and contexts ]

Major Science Challenges

5 – Management pragmatism & adaptation smarts– the so what? and do what? quest ions [ the “doom & gloom” or opportuni ty focus]

6 – Policy Confusion – arguably the most confused publ ic pol icy space in Austral ia [and global ly mul t ip le agendas] p lacing extra responsibi l i ty on science

7 – Science quality, certainty, errors & leadership - responding to a quest ioning community, and just ifi ably so! [ the downscal ing or down ski l l ing i ssue]

Major Science Challenges [cont]

Changing currents in marine biodiversity governance and management:Responding to climate change

Spatial Scope

 State marine jurisdictions:• Queensland (between Cape York and the NSW border)

• New South Wales • Tasmania (between the Kent Group and Southeast Cape)

Commonwealth jurisdiction adjoining thesestate waters

Human adaptation options to increase resilience of conservation-dependent seabirds and marine mammals impacted by climate change

Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)

Lynda Chambers (BOM)

John Arnould (Deakin)

2060

Frontiers in Ecology, 2006.

•95% of all deep-sea reef forming corals occur above the aragonite saturation horizon•By 2099, 70% of these sites will be in undersaturated water

Project: 2010/536

Beach and Surf Tourism and Recreation in Australia:

Vulnerability and Adaptation

Mike Raybould (Bond)Neil Lazarow (Griffith / DCCEE)Dave Anning (UNSW/Bond)

8

Opportunity

-Range of long-term physical and biological datasets available in SE Australia to build understanding of natural variability,climate change patterns, likely range extensions and species

interactions.

Use this understanding to develop climate change related predictions and potential adaptive intervention strategies to

enhance resilience of temperate reef ecosystems.

Richard Ling

Preadapting a Tasmanian coastal ecosystem to ongoing climate change through reintroduction of a locally extinct species

Nic Bax (CSIRO and UTAS)

Alistair Hobday (CSIRO)

Neville Barrett (UTAS)

Effects of climate change of coral troutmorgan.pratchett@jcu.edu.au

Key outputs

1. Greatly extends existing scientific knowledge on the likely effects of climate change on coral reef fishes, considering for the first time impacts on important fisheries species (significant potential for high impact journal publications)

2. Fundamental information on environmental tolerances (at multiple stages in the life-cycle), which is critical for improving captive breeding and aquaculture

3. Directly contributes to local management of fisheries resources asidenitified GBRMPA Climate Change Action Plan., including

i) to explore specific sensitivities of ecologically and economically important species

ii) identifying areas of low and high resilience to climate change to prioritize management

iii) identify thresholds beyond which climate change causes irreversible damage

Objective 1Objective 2

Objective 4

Objective 3

Vulnerability of barramundi and related industries to climate change

Dean Jerry, Carolyn Smith-Keune, Guy Carton, Jeremy vanderWal, Igor Pirozzi, Kate Hutson and John Russell (QDEEDI)

James Cook UniversityTownsville, QLD

Australia

Aims1) To consolidate natural resource information that is

currently dispersed and inaccessible, but relevant to impacts on the oyster industry (e.g. pH, salinity, Chl-a, seagrass and wetlands, lease conditions etc.)

2)Deliver it in a format with relevance to the oyster industry to inform practical, adaptive reponses to shifting and variable environmental conditions

Identification of climate-driven species shifts and adaptation options for recreational fishers

Daniel Gledhill

Ichthyologist, CSIRO

10 & 11 February, 2011

Climate Adaptation

WA Program Development

National Climate Change Adaptation Research Plan: Marine Biodiversity and Resources

Steve Blake, WAMSI

FRDC: Climate Change workshop

Management implications of climate change effects on fisheries in WA

Nick Caputi

February 2011

2010/565: Management implications of climate change

impacts on fisheries resources of tropical Australia

JCU, Qld DEEDI, NT DoR, GBRMPA, QSIA, Infofish Australia,UTAS, RRRC, Maynard Marine

Climate Change Adaptation

Building Community and Industry Knowledge

Jenny Shaw

Integrated conceptual framework...with gaps still to be

plugged

Knowledge & Strategies for Adaptation

Sentinel Biodiversity & Tourism Species & Communities

Sentinel Indigenous, Recreation/Tourism & Commercial Species

Marine Biodiversity Planning &

Management

Marine Fisheries

Management

Marine Systems and Populations – Shifts and Management

Implications

Inshore & Estuary Based Wild Fisheries

Inshore & Estuary Based Aquaculture

Marine Biophysical Climate Impact Understanding

Nearshore and Estuary Climate Impact & Adaptation

2 - Climate change information needs are

synergistic – all resource management challenges have multiple drivers and are multi-faceted in their solution

Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &

Fisheries

About 55% of all biological carbon capture is “blue” carbon – ie: in the world’s ocean ecosystems

Some 93% of the earth’s CO2 is stored and cycled through our oceans

Between 50% - 71% of all carbon storage in the ocean’s sediments occurs in just 0.5% of the ocean area – the wetlands & estuaries

A Mitigation Example - “Blue” Carbon [UNEP]

Wetlands and estuaries comprise less than 0.05 of the world’s land based plant biomass but store a comparable amount of carbon

. . . .or capture and store about the equivalent of half the world’s transport sector emissions annually

. . . .but between 2% and 7% of our blue carbon sinks [wetlands] are lost annually

Clearly optimisation is essential – for habitat, food, biodiversity + carbon

A Mitigation Example -“Blue” Carbon [UNEP]

www.managingclimate.gov.au

An Adaptation ExampleWe will respond to climate change by adapting and responding to climate

variability

Australia already has the most variable climate

Climate variability is the time frame for enterprise profitability

The extremes are where the profits & costs really count

July-September outcome…May POAMA prediction

POAMA RF tercile 3

POAMA Max T tercile 1

POAMA Min T

tercile 1

Sustainable Landscapes

Keeping the Great Barrier Reef like this......a practice innovation example

Sustainable Landscapes

...not this

- implies attention to fostering more profitable and sustainable practices at commodity and catchment scales

Sustainable Landscapes

Reef Rescue & Project Catalyst Roll OutKey Ingredients include:Grants [Reef Rescue] – Increased $incentives if move to all “A” practices Social Attitudes help determine $allocations by catchment Regulations [Qld Govt] - Ensuring all the industry moves to at least “C” practices

Monitoring [Reef Rescue + Natural Resources Groups]Industry based practice monitoring by industryAlgorithms to translate to likely change in off-farm exportWater Quality & Ecosystem Health monitoring

R&D [Project Catalyst + Reef Rescue + Managing Climate Variability + RDC Practice Projects]What are the “new extremes”?What are the A* opportunities to respond to these extremes?How do we accelerate innovation?

1 - Portfolio approaches are essential - – if we are to deliver research fi ndings that meet multiple objectives, policy contexts,

investors and stakeholders

Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &

Fisheries

R&D programs should- meet the needs of multiple investors – already FRDC, DCCEE, DAFF & State Governments

be bedded in multiple policy constructs - eg National Adaptat ion Research Plan, Nat ional Cl imate Change Act ion Plan for Fisheries and Aquaculture, FRDC Strategic Plan, Nat ional Environmental Research Plan, Marine Biodivers ity etc

Characteristics of a Portfolio Approach

R&D programs should- deliver to multiple stakeholders and sectors – conservat ion, wi ld commercia l fi shers , aquaculture , recreat ional fi shers , indigenous resource users , research agencies , management agencies , tour ist and other sectors

be both national and regional in scope – with a recognit ion that change and innovat ion happens at mult ip le levels

Characteristics of a Portfolio Approach [cont]

The key ingredients - conceptual frameworks – as a basis for establ ishing the knowledge gaps and investment pr ior i t ies to meet both investor and stakeholder needs

smart data systems - management, d iscovery, synergy, r igor, d isseminat ion and legacy

research capability – comparat ively mult i -d isc ipl inary and integrated, including across inst i tut ions

Essential elements of a portfolio approach

The key ingredients – researcher information sharing and networks – sel f managing teams bought together at a l l levels within and across port fo l ios

project management in a program context – phasing projects and outputs so projects synergise & integrate

outcome and knowledge delivery orientation – at scales from individual user to nat ional agenda sett ing fi nal report ing

Essential elements of a portfolio approach [cont]

Portfolio approaches are essential

Climate change information needs are synergistic

Climate change science challenges are both specifi c & generic

Climate Change Adaptation – Marine Biodiversity &

Fisheries