climate change, agriculture and food security

Event name

CCAFS: An Overview

NamePosition

Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS) – Overview

Bruce CampbellCCAFS Director

CIAT BOT, May 2011

2 • 3/21/11

The Challenge

3 • 3/21/11

Message 1:In the coming decades, climate

change and other global trends will endanger agriculture, food security,

and rural livelihoods.

4 • 3/21/11

In order to meet global demands,

we will need

60-70% more food

by 2050.

5 • 3/21/11

The concentration of GHGs is rising

Long-term implications

for the climate and agriculture

CO2

CH4

N2O

6 • 3/21/11The suitability for crops will decline in many areas……

-95 to -31-30 to -11-10 to -101 to 2930 to 4748 to 98

% change

Andrew Jarvis, CIAT/CCAFS

50 crops, to 2050

7 • 3/21/11

“Unchecked climate change will result in a

20% increase in malnourished children by 2050,” relative to the full

mitigation scenario.

-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS

8 • 3/21/11

Message 2:With new challenges also come

new opportunities.

9 • 3/21/11

Average price in voluntary carbon markets ($/tCO2e)

2006 2007 2008

Ecosystem services

10 • 3/21/11

Program Design

11 • 3/21/11

CCAFS: the partnership

12 • 3/21/11

The CGIAR Research Centers

Lead center - CIAT

13 • 3/21/11

14 • 3/21/11

1. Identify and develop pro-poor

adaptation and mitigation

practices, technologies and

policies for agriculture and

food systems.

2.Support the inclusion of

agricultural issues in climate

change policies, and of

climate issues in agricultural

policies, at all levels.

CCAFS objectives

15 • 3/21/11

The CCAFS FrameworkAdapting Agriculture to

Climate Variability and Change

Technologies, practices, partnerships and policies for:

1. Adaptation to Progressive Climate Change

2. Adaptation through Managing Climate Risk

3. Pro-poor Climate Change Mitigation

Improved Environmental

HealthImproved

Rural Livelihoods

Improved Food

Security

Enhanced adaptive capacity in agricultural, natural

resource management, and food systems

Trade-offs and Synergies

4. Integration for Decision Making

• Linking Knowledge with Action• Assembling Data and Tools for Analysis

and Planning• Refining Frameworks for Policy Analysis

16 • 3/21/11

Place-based field work

Indo-Gangetic Plains:Parts of India, Bangladesh, NepalEast Africa:

Tanzania, Uganda, Kenya, and Ethiopia

West Africa:Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana, and Niger

17 • 3/21/11

Progressive Adaptation

18 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Adapted farming systems via integrated technologies, practices, and policies

Objective Two: Breeding strategies to address abiotic and biotic stresses induced by future climatesObjective Three: Identification, conservation, and deployment of species and genetic diversity

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

19 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Farms of the future

The climate analogue tool identifies the range of places whose current climates correspond to the future of a chosen locality

Choice of sites for cross-site farmer visits and participatory crop and livestock trials

Searching for climate analogues

20 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: Two Degrees Up

Short climate change photofilms highlighting the impact of a two degree rise in temperature on smallholder agriculture

21 • 3/21/11

Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1

>> Spotlight on: The AMKN Platform

It links farmers’ realities on the ground with promising scientific research outputs, to inspire new ideas and highlight current challenge.

The Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Knowledge Network platform is a portal for accessing and sharing agricultural A&M knowledge.

22 • 3/21/11

Risk

Management

23 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Building resilient livelihoods (Farm level)

Objective Two: Food delivery, trade, and crisis response (Food system level)

Objective Three: Enhanced climate information and services

Managing Climate Risk · 2

24 • 3/21/11

Managing climate risk · 2

>> Spotlight on: Indexed crop insurance

• Knowledge and tools for targeting, implementing, and evaluating index insurance

• Using crop yield predictions to develop robust indices with low basis risk

25 • 3/21/11

Managing climate risk · 2

>> Spotlight on: Reconstructing climate data

Google tool for Ethiopia scaled up across AfricaFilling gaps in meteorological records in partnership with local met services and WMO

Crucial for calculating index insurance, forecasting production for food crisis and trade management etc

26 • 3/21/11

Pro-poor Mitigation

27 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Identify low-carbon agricultural development pathways

Objective Two: Develop incentives and institutional arrangements

Objective Three: Develop on-farm technological options for mitigation and research landscape implications

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

28 • 3/21/11

Cross-project learning on best-bet institutional models across East and West Africa

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

>> Spotlight on: Carbon project action research

29 • 3/21/11

• Earthscan book of current knowledge

• Lessons from REDD+ for agriculture

Pro-poor climate change mitigation · 3

>> Spotlight on: State-of-the-art agricultural mitigation

30 • 3/21/11

Integration

31 • 3/21/11

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

Integration for Decision Making · 4

32 • 3/21/11

Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households

• Sites for participatory action research

• Guidance for research foci

• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts

Integration for Decision Making · 4

>> Spotlight on: Household baseline survey

33 • 3/21/11

Select climate model (6 options

or their avg)

Select emission

s scenario(3 options)

Select the centre year of the time

slice

Select location Select the number of years of data desired

™

Integration for Decision Making · 4

34 • 3/21/11

Cross-cutting principles, activities & outputs

35 • 3/21/11

Building a user-driven agenda

• From large-scale stakeholder consultations

e.g. GCARD, regional meetings

• Specific exercises with selected groups

e.g. Venice meeting, regional scenarios, farmer testimonials

From local to regional to global

36 • 3/21/11

People or organizations increasing their own ability to achieve their objectives effectively and efficiently.

Capacity enhancement

37 • 3/21/11

• Understand and act on social differentiation: gender, wealth, occupation etc

• Examine both vulnerability and agency, e.g. via village participatory analysis

Focus on the most vulnerable

38 • 3/21/11

Join up climate, ag & food policy

Working with UNFCCC negotiators

AgClim Letters

39 • 3/21/11

40 • 3/21/11

Budget$63.2 million totalSources:• CGIAR Fund - $41.4 million• Current and Projected Restricted

Donor Projects - $17.3 million• Other Income $ 4.5 million30% to partners

41 • 3/21/11

Centre Total Budget

AfricaRice 0.8 Bioversity 5.6 CIAT 6.0 CIFOR 1.0 CIMMYT 5.5 CIP 3.0 ICARDA 2.0 ICRAF 7.9 ICRISAT 4.5 IFPRI 4.2 IITA 1.0 ILRI 8.0 IRRI 1.1 IWMI 5.2 WorldFish 2.0 Total 57.8

4.6 0.8

63.2

42 • 3/21/11

Budget allocation to Themes

Theme 1 Adaptation to Progressive Climate

Change 34%

Theme 2 Adaptation through Managing

Climate Risk 13%

Theme 3 Pro-poor climate change mitigation

18%

Theme 4 Integration for decision making

25%

Coordination, Synthesis, Capacity Enhancement,

Communications10%

43 • 3/21/11

Challenges

• A new way of working – needs behavioral changes

• Boundary issues amongst CRPs

Opportiunities

• Largest coalition of scientists working on agriculture and climate change in developing countries

44 • 3/21/11

• Learn about the program on the web and through presentations

• Engage with theme leaders and center contact points on your research

Learn and engage

• Use research products coming out of other centers

• Develop multi-center programs of work which are embedded in CCAFS strategy

• Develop ownership and feel a part of the program

Collaborate and contribute

What Should You Do (as a

scientist)?

45 • 3/21/11

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