climate change and transportation and land use planning john p. poorman october 2006

Climate Change and Climate Change and Transportation and Land Transportation and Land

Use PlanningUse PlanningJohn P. PoormanJohn P. PoormanOctober 2006October 2006

jpoorman@cdtcmpo.orgjpoorman@cdtcmpo.org

Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

1. We must respect the laws of physics, economics, politics and household behavior.

2. What is possible is not always probable; what is improbable is not necessarily impossible.

3. Public policy typically seeks to accomplish a goal while simultaneously preserving the status quo.

4. American preference is to look to technology for solutions that preserve the status quo.

5. Significant technological change comes unexpectedly and carries unintended consequences.

6. Household behavior is remarkably consistent – if observed at the level of core relationships.

Can transportation and land use planning mitigate the rate of global climate change?

Transp & Transp & Land Use Land Use

Can itCan itreduce climate change?reduce climate change?

??

Transp & Transp & Land Use Land Use

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change???

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ??

MacroMacroPolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change??? ??

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ??

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change??? ?? ??

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change??? ?? ??

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Will itWill it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change??? ?? ??

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo YesYes YesYes

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Will itWill it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change??? ?? ??

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

GHG Emission ReductionsGHG Emission Reductions

State Energy Plans: 18 – 33%State Energy Plans: 18 – 33%Arizona: 72% from policy; 28% planningArizona: 72% from policy; 28% planning

Todd LitmanTodd Litman ““Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between Win-win” strategies: 26 – 62% split between

policy and planning.policy and planning.

Win-Win StrategiesDirectly Affects Travel?

 Total Reductions

 Cumulative Reductions

    Low Middle High Low Middle High

Planning Reforms No 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0%

Regulatory Reforms No 1.0% 2.3% 4.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0%

TDM Programs No 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 0.0% 0% 0.0%

Commute Trip Reduction Yes 0.8% 1.8% 3.0% 0.7% 2% 3.0%

Commuter Financial Incentives Partly 1.5% 3.5% 6.0% 1.5% 4% 5.9%

Fuel Taxes - Tax Shifting Yes 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 6.4% 13% 20.0%

Pay-As-You-Drive Pricing Yes 8.0% 10.6% 13.5% 13.9% 22% 30.8%

Road/Congestion Pricing Yes 0.5% 1.5% 3.0% 14.3% 24% 32.9%

Parking Management Yes 2.0% 3.4% 5.0% 16.0% 26% 36.3%

Parking Pricing Yes 4.0% 6.8% 10.0% 19.4% 31% 42.6%

Transit and Rideshare Improvements Yes 2.0% 4.5% 8.0% 21.0% 34% 47.2%

HOV Priority Yes 0.5% 1.1% 2.0% 21.4% 35% 48.3%

Walking and Cycling Improvements Yes 1.0% 2.3% 4.0% 22.2% 36% 50.3%

Smart Growth Reforms Yes 3.0% 8.0% 15.0% 24.5% 41% 57.8%

Location Efficient Housing and Mortgages No 1.0% 2.3% 4.0% 24.5% 41% 57.8%

Mobility Management Marketing Yes 1.5% 3.0% 5.0% 25.7% 43% 59.9%

Freight Transport Management Yes 0.3% 1.0% 2.3% 25.9% 43% 60.8%

School and Campus Trip Management Yes 0.3% 0.8% 1.5% 26.0% 44% 61.4%

Carsharing Yes 0.1% 0.3% 0.6% 26.1% 44% 61.6%

Traffic Calming Yes 0.1% 0.2% 0.4% 26.2% 44% 61.8%

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo YesYes YesYes

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Will itWill it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo MaybeMaybe NoNo

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

US Climate Change Technology Program

Strategic Plan: Transportation Sector

10-20 years 20-40 years 40-60 years

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo YesYes YesYes

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? YesYes YesYes YesYes

Will itWill it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo MaybeMaybe NoNo

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? ?? ?? ??

Market Market ForcesForces

Macro Macro PolicyPolicy

Local Local PlanningPlanning

Can itCan it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo YesYes YesYes

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? YesYes YesYes YesYes

Will itWill it

Reduce Reduce climate climate

change?change?NoNo MaybeMaybe NoNo

Mitigate Mitigate impacts of?impacts of? YesYes MaybeMaybe MaybeMaybe

In sumIn sumSeparate can from willSeparate can from willDistinguish mitigate climate change Distinguish mitigate climate change

from mitigate impacts of climate from mitigate impacts of climate changechange

Separate market, policy and planningSeparate market, policy and planningRespect “truths” in judging potential Respect “truths” in judging potential

benefits and outcomesbenefits and outcomes

In sumIn sumConclusionsConclusions

Policy greater tool to mitigate climate Policy greater tool to mitigate climate change.change.

Policy, planning may help adjust to Policy, planning may help adjust to climate change. May need long lead climate change. May need long lead time.time.

Market forces may lag – good to help Market forces may lag – good to help adjust to but weak ally in mitigating adjust to but weak ally in mitigating climate change.climate change.