climate change connection: severe weather in mb...

@synoptictyper

climateguy@gmail.com

Professor of Geography Associate Dean of Science, University of Winnipeg

Danny Blair

Co-Chair, MB’s Climate Change Connection

Manitoba’s Future Climate

dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca

Climate Change Connection: Severe Weather in MB Workshop, 2 April 2013

Many people

around the world

now realize that

their climates

are no longer

normal.

2000 England and Wales Wettest autumn on record since 1766

2002 Germany Highest daily rain since at least 1901

2003 Europe Hottest summer in at least 500 years

2007 Greece Hottest summer on record since 1891

2009 Australia Heatwave breaks many long records

2010 Russia Hottest summer since 1500

2010 Pakistan Worst flooding in history

2010 E. Australia Highest December rainfall since 1900

2011 France Record hot/dry spring since 1880

2011 N.E. USA Wettest Jan-Oct on record since 1880

2011 S. USA Most extreme Jul. heat/dry since 1880

2011 W. Europe Wettest summer on record since 1901

2011 Japan 72-hour rainfall record

2011 Rep. of Korea Wettest summer on record since 1908

2011 Canada Souris-Assiniboine River Floods

2012 Arctic Lowest sea ice cover on record

2012 Antarctic Highest sea ice cover on record

2012 Canada Record high temps in March

2012 Canada/U.S. Record winter drought in many areas

2012 United States Hottest year on record in lower 48

2012 United States Hottest summer on record in lower 48

2012 Canada Hottest summer on record

2012 Europe Many areas record hottest summer

2012 United States Drought breaks many long records

2012 Russia, Ukraine + Drought raises food prices 10%

2012 United States Hurricane Sandy kills ~200; ~$70B

2012 Greenland 97% of surface was melting in July

2012 Eurasia Extreme cold spell in Jan/Feb

2012 S. Philippines Rare Super Typhoon kills 100s in Dec

2012 NE Brazil Extreme drought worst in 5 decades

2012 Africa Floods in Jul-Oct affects >3 million

2013 Australia Record heat wave in January

2013 Australia Hottest summer on record (Dec-Feb)

2013 Canada Record highs in Yukon, Edm. in Jan.

2012-2013 Extremes

2011/12: 3rd Warmest Winter (1948-2012)

https://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A21B114-1

https://www.ec.gc.ca/adsc-cmda/default.asp?lang=En&n=4A21B114-1

2012: Warmest Summer (1948-2012)

2012: Warmest Year on Record for U.S.

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/national/2012/13

Canada:

3rd Warmest

(1948-2012)?

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/temp-and-precip/drought/nadm/nadm-maps.php?lang=en&year=2012&month=8

March 2012 Difference

from Normal

Winnipeg March Mean Temperatures

2013

Anomalies relative to 1951-80

Global Climate is Warming

NASA: 2010 was tied for warmest year on record

2011 was 9th warmest

2012 was ~tied for 9th

Yes, there is much variation

within the global

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/

Major volcanic

eruptions cool

the planet for a

few years

El Niño warms

the planet for

~2 yrs; La Niña

cools for ~2 yrs

Through Jan. 2013

Record Warmth In Recent Years

Even though solar irradiance was very low

Carbon dioxide forcing is

about 1.5 W/m2 and growing

(~0.3 W/m2 per decade)

Data through Jan. 2013

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Solar/

~11-year (132-month) sunspot cycle

Why is the global

temperature rising?

The “Keeling Curve”

http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/

393.8 ppm

Data through Dec 2012 http://co2now.org/Current-CO2/CO2-Now/scripps-co2-data-mauna-loa-observatory.html

Glacial-Interglacial Ice Core Data

We have excellent estimates of ancient carbon dioxide

concentrations from bubbles extracted from ice cores.

Conclusion from our

understanding of how climates

changed in the past and current

changes:

• Humans now control the

global climate.

James Hansen: http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/

James Hansen and grandchildren

IPCC CO2 CONCENTRATION

SCENARIOS

Socio-economic and geophysical models

are used to make projections about future

carbon dioxide (and GHG) concentrations.

Currently

~394 ppm

A2

A1B

B1

A1F1

540

850

720

970

B2 620

Alas:

•There are few signs that

we are going to

substantially slow down

our carbon emissions any

time soon.

None?

Alas:

• There is no quick fix.

• It is very unlikely that we

will be able to prevent

substantial warming.

33% of CO2

remains in air

after 100 years

19% remains in air

after 1000 years

Decay of Fossil Fuel CO2 Emission

Conclusion:

•The entire climate system

changes as well, not just

the temperature.

•There are many signs that

the system is changing.

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html

What changes in

temperature and

precipitation are

projected for our region?

http://adaptation.nrcan.gc.ca/assess/2007/index_e.php

Canada’s most

recent assessment

of climate change

impacts and

adaptation, region

by region.

Update coming soon

Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Spring

Wetter &

Warmer

Climate Trend Mapper

Free! at climate.uwinnipeg.ca

Spring Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011

Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Summer

Drier? &

Warmer

Summer Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011

Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Fall

Wetter? &

Warmer

Fall Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011

Prairie Grassland Region: 2050s Winter

Wetter &

Warmer

Winter Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011

Annual Avg. Temperature Trend 1970-2011

http://warmingworld.newscientistapps.com/

RCP = Representative Concentration Pathway

Use average of 16 of the latest climate models to

estimate changes in PRECIPITATION and changes in

the DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PRECIPITATION AND

EVAPOTRANSPIRATION.

Comparing 1950-2000 to 2021-2040.

Uses RCP8.5.

Change in PRECIPITATION: Fall Months

Change in PRECIPITATION: Winter Months

Change in PRECIPITATION: Spring Months

Change in PRECIPITATION: Summer Months

Change in PRECIP-ET: Fall Months

Change in PRECIP-ET: Winter Months

Change in PRECIP-ET: Spring Months

Change in PRECIP-ET: Summer Months

Climate normals are dead:

•The averages are changing

rapidly

•The climate is becoming more

variable

•The past is no longer a good

surrogate for the future

Science: 1 Feb 2008

Stationarity—the idea that natural systems

fluctuate within an unchanging envelope of

variability—is a foundational concept that

permeates training and practice in water-resource

engineering. It implies that any variable (e.g.,

annual streamflow or annual flood peak) has a time-

invariant (or 1-year–periodic) probability density

function (pdf), whose properties can be estimated

from the instrument record.

Of Concern:

•The amount of non-

stationarity that will be

present in the future is

unknown

•Also unknown: what we

do not know

Donald Rumsfeld:

• "We know there are known

knowns: there are things we know

we know. We also know there are

known unknowns: that is to say we

know there are things we know we

don't know. But there are also

unknown unknowns — the

ones we don't know we don't

know." 12 February 2002

Planning and preparing is

important:

•Forecasting extreme

events is especially

important and difficult

•The most important

events are the extremes

http://ipcc-wg2.gov/SREX/

Released March

2012

IPCC 2001

Number of Days with Temperature

Exceeding 30°C

• Warming leads to more evaporation

• More evaporation increase intensity

and duration of drought

• Warmer air also holds more water

vapour (7% more per +1°C)

• More water vapour will create more

precipitation (with favourable

weather patterns)

• More atmospheric moisture provides

more latent heat for storms

Clausius–Clapeyron equation

Overall, the evidence indicates a likely increase

in observed heavy precipitation in many

regions in North America, despite statistically

non-significant trends and some decreases in

some sub-regions. This general increase in heavy

precipitation accompanies a general increase in

total precipitation in most areas of the [country].

The largest trends toward

increased annual total

precipitation, number of rainy days,

and intense precipitation….were

focused on the Great

Plains/northwestern Midwest. Chapter 3

There will be benefits:

• Longer growing season

• More heat for growing

• More crop/garden choices

• Improved yields

• Longer warm-fun season

• Warmer winters

There will be many risks:

• More extreme heat events

• More cooling requirements

• More severe storms

• More winter rain hazards

• More weeds and pests

• More social stress

• Shorter cold-fun season

There will be many risks:

• More frequent droughts

• More intense droughts

• Longer droughts

• More extreme rain events

• Continued spring floods

• A more variable climate

• More climate surprises

You should:

•Anticipate impacts on

your activities & services

•Anticipate demand for

your activities & services

•Make the case for change

•Develop and implement a

plan that has resilience

@synoptictyper

climateguy@gmail.com

Professor of Geography Associate Dean of Science, University of Winnipeg

Danny Blair

Co-Chair, MB’s Climate Change Connection

Manitoba’s Future Climate

dannyblair.uwinnipeg.ca

Climate Change Connection: Severe Weather in MB Workshop, 2 April 2013

Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary

Variable Projected Change Confidence

Annual Mean Temperature

+1 to +3°C by 2050 Very High

Winter Mean Temperature

+3 to +5°C by 2050 Very High

Spring Mean Temperature

+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High

Summer Mean Temperature

+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High

Fall Mean Temperature

+1 to +2°C by 2050 Very High

Maximum Temperatures Warming slower than means Very High

Minimum Temperatures Warming faster than means Very High

These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The

Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.

Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary

Variable Projected Change Confidence

Warm-season heat waves Warmer and more frequent Very High

Heat extremes Warmer and more frequent Very High

Cooling-degree days Much higher Very High

Heating-degree days Much lower Very High

Growing-degree days Much higher Very High

Frost-free season Much longer Very High

Mid-winter thaws Warmer and more frequent Very High

Winter-cold snaps Shorter and less frequent Very high

Snow cover season Much shorter Very high

Length of winter season Much shorter Very high

Winter freeze-thaw cycles More frequent Low

Cold nights Warmer and fewer Very high

These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The

Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.

Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary

Variable Projected Change Confidence

Annual precipitation Modest increase Medium

Winter precipitation Substantial increase Very High

Spring precipitation Increase Medium

Summer precipitation Lower Low

Fall precipitation Increase Low

Winter rain events Many more Very high

Snow storms Fewer Medium

Droughts More and longer High

Intense rain events More and more intense High

Days with rain/snow ? Low

Days without rain/snow ? Low

Surface water amount Less Medium

These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The

Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.

Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary

Variable Projected Change Confidence

Wind speed ? Low

Wind extremes Higher Medium

Wind erosion Higher Low

Cloud cover ? Low

Sunshine ? Low

Relative humidity ? Low

Summer severe weather More Medium

Lightning More Medium

Tornadoes More Medium

Surface water temperature Higher Very high

Carbon dioxide Higher Very high

These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The

Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.

Climate Projections for Southern Manitoba: Executive Summary

Variable Projected Change Confidence

Year to year variability Higher High

Climate extremes Higher High

Spring flooding More frequent Low

Local summer flooding More frequent High

Very wet summers More frequent Low

Very dry summers More frequent Medium

Very hot summers More frequent High

Very wet winters More frequent High

Very cold winters Much less frequent Very high

Positive impacts Some, decreasing with time Very high

Negative impacts Many, increasing with time Very high

These are summaries of the overall projected trends as reported in From Impacts to Adaptation: Canada in a Changing Climate 2007 (2008); The New Normal: The

Canadian Prairies in a Changing Climate (2010); IPCC’s Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis (2007); and other select sources compiled by D. Blair.