climate change & land markets in angolan coastal cities: allan cain, 2015/03/24

Climate Change & Land Markets in Coastal Cities of Angola

the case of Luanda

Development Workshop Angola

World Bank Land & Poverty Conference Washington DC 23 - 27 March 2015

• Urban economic activity often increase the environmental pressures that lead to flooding, low-income settlements.

• Approximately two-thirds of the population of Angola now lives in the low-lying coastal zone.

• Luanda is the fastest growing city in Africa. Its present population is more than 6.5 million and it could be a mega-city of over 10 million at the end of the decade.

• Research by Development Workshop, supported by IDRC’s Urban Poverty, Environment and Climate Change programmes, demonstrates that in Luanda poorer families tend to have settled the more environmentally risky parts of the city.

Urban Climate change Research

• Climate change is change over time whether due to increased natural variability or as a result of human activity.

• In coastal zones tend to be the most vulnerable to climate change.

• The metrology limited data available in Angola suggests that the coast of Angola has shown an increase in climate variability (mostly rain) from one year to another

• The large coastal cities like Luanda are located near the mouths of the river basins that put these settlements at particularly high risk of local climatic changes.

Increased Angolan climate variability

• The coastal areas of Angola where urban populations are growing most rapidly experience are the most influenced by the affects of climate change resulting in increasing annual variation

• Coastal cities have lower rainfall than inland areas but are subject to sudden, often catastrophic storms.

• In urban coastal areas poorer communities of formerly war displaced have purchased and settled on land that is often at risk from flooding and erosion because these are the only affordable locations near to economic opportunities.

• Research by Development Workshop, supported by IDRC demonstrated that in Luanda poorer families tend to have settled the more environmentally risky parts of the city.

Climate change impact on Angolan Cities

Rapid Urbanization

Source: UNHabitat

• Angola during this period was the most rapidly urbanizing country in the Southern African region.

• The city of Luanda, with an average growth of 7% is the fastest growing city in Africa.

Liberation War -------- Civil War ------------------| |------| -------|

Human Settlements and Housing • Four decades of war

caused a major demographic shift

• Populations of rural areas of conflict fled to the safety of urban settlements on the coast

• Resulting in rapid urbanization of the country.

Digital terrain model (GIS)

Participatory Participatory mapping and risk mapping and risk of damage was of damage was based on this based on this data setdata set

Remote sensing

Settlement Information Systems• DW has used Geographic Information System (GIS) as a

tool to support social mobilization to monitor the operation of the service and plan interventions.

• GIS is a powerful tool for Assessing the impact of environmental factors, urban services. settlement patterns and land markets.

• DW uses GPS-mobile-enabled android tablets to facilitate local community organizations to participate in the collection of data.

• Uma.

Assentamentos em risco

Areas where Areas where rainwater retention rainwater retention is visible. is visible. (Photos (Photos taken on a flight over the taken on a flight over the city)city)

The survey of damage and risks

SISTEMA DE INFORMAÇÃO TERRITORIAL

Luanda’s Population Density

• Diarrheal diseases like cholera have been endemic in Luanda and some other coastal cities that lead to periodic outbreaks, such as that in 2006, over thirty thousand cases and several hundred deaths.

• A succession of devastating floods in recent years in cities up and down the coast, including Luanda, Benguela and Namibe? Can be attributed to a combination of factors,

– including increasing climate variability and – environmental changes induced settlement in

vulnerable areas and – removal of natural vegetation on adjacent watersheds.

Angola’s Settlements and climate variability

Settlements at Risk

Structural damage of buildings: due to landslides.

Environmental damage

Mapping of environmentally related diseases

Increased temperatures and frequent floods can have an impact on human health through a modification of the geographical distribution of diseases such as malaria

Distribution of disease and Settlements

Áreas e tipos de inundação

Declives

Buracos

Desabamento

Lago

Desabamento/lagoa

Lagoa

Ravinas e inundação

Águas estagnadas

<15m

15 – 30m

30 -45m

45 – 60m

>60m

Mapping of types of environmental risk

Chronic urban environmental problems• The environmental situation in the peripheral areas of the

cities of Angola has been gradually deteriorating over many decades of armed conflict.

• Can be considered as in chronic crisis of public health and environmental sanitation.

• The growth and maintenance of sanitation systems has not kept pace with population growth.

• Most vulnerable populations are located at sites of environmental hazards such as along rivers or drainage lines, susceptible to severe erosion.

• The large coastal cities like Luanda are located near the mouths of the river basins that put these settlements at particularly high risk of local climatic changes.

Land Markets

Access to Land Markets by the Poor• The majority of Angolan slum residents (67%) bought

their land on the informal market and can demonstrate purchase contracts or sales declarations. But only 7% have titles.

• Luanda land prices decline rapidly as one moves away from the core of the city where the formal economy is concentrated.

• Due to rapidly raising property values the poor have relocated into areas of higher environmental risk.

• This may be due to forcible removal or voluntarily relocation, though often out of economic necessity.

• These areas tend to be low coastal zones, river basins susceptible to flooding or along steep ravines with high erosion risks.

Proof of the right of occupancy

Purchase/sales declaration

49.1%

No proof14.4%

Location sketch7.3%

Precarious occupation title

5.6%

Property registry0.5%

Surface right0.5%

Temporary upgradable license

0.2%Witnessed by a

Government Technician6.8%

Others0.0% Residents card

0.7%

Agreement made in public 1.5%

Receipt from Utility bills1.0%

Contract of sale12.2%

Map of land values in Luanda

• Urban environmental risk areas are already disproportionately located in low-lying areas of the coast. Climate change will increase the risk of rising sea levels, the risk of flooding and strong tropical storms

• Disaster preparedness and management plans are vital components of an adaptation strategy.

• Urban planning needs to reflect formal hypotheses about climate change, taking into account new information on possible variations

• The communities themselves through micro-planning efforts in the collective organization can develop plans and infrastructure required to reduce their vulnerability to natural disasters.

Conclusions

Obrigado