climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors k...

Climate change predicted to shift wolverine distributions, connectivity, and dispersal corridors

KEVIN S. MCKELVEY1, JEFFREY P. COPELAND1, MICHAEL K. SCHWARTZ1, JEREMY S. LITTELL2, KEITH B. AUBRY3, JOHN R. SQUIRES1, SEAN A. PARKS1, MARKETA M. ELSNER2, GUILLAUME S. MAUGER2

1USFS, RMRS, Missoula MT, 2Climate Impacts Group, U. Washington, 3USFS ,PNW, Olympia WA. Eco. Apps, available in preprint

Historical Wolverine Locations (1827 to 1960)

Aubry et al. 2007

Late May in northwestern Alaska

Wolverine Reproductive DensWeaning late April to early Mayrequires snow Magoun and Copeland (1998)

5 females, 15 dens

All wolverine dens with high quality spatial coordinatesU.S.CanadaScandinavia

High resolution snow coverageMODIS (daily, 0.5km, worldwide)7 yrs data

Chose May 15 as date for weaningPersistent snow cover through May 15

Copeland, J.P., et al. 2010. The bioclimatic envelope of the wolverine: Do climatic constraints limit their geographic distribution? Canadian Journal of Zoology 88:233-246.

ScandinaviaFrom: Copeland et al. 2010

Stats for dens

North America 562 dens 65 North America

327 Norway160 Sweden 10 Finland

550 (97.9%) were in snowpixels

ALL were snow dens

Majority in pixels covered5+ years

From: Copeland et al. 2010

Notable misses: Quebec (extirpated) Southern Rockies (extirpated)Southern Scandinavia (recolonizing)

Range matches snow

Range map: Jokkmokk SE,2005

From: Copeland et al. 2010

89% of locations, all ages, both sexes, all seasonsPattern stronger in summer in all study areas

From: Copeland et al. 2010

Dispersal analysis based on resistance modeling

Greater Yellowstone area

From: Copeland et al. 2010

0.205

0.21

0.215

0.22

0.225

0.23

0.235

0.24

0 5 10 15 20 25

Resistance Value

Rx

y (

Ma

nte

l)

Schwartz et al. 2009. Wolverine gene flow across a narrow climatic niche. Ecology 90: 3222-3232.

Straight path

Greater Yellowstone area

From: Copeland et al. 2010

Genetic models indicate high preference for movementwithin snow-defined areas

Montana

Idaho

GreaterYellowstoneArea, WY

From: Schwartz et al. 2009

Conclusions:

Wolverine are an organism adapted to the “Hudsonian” zoneHistorical range Den requirementsWorldwide current rangeHabitat use patternsDispersal patterns

Areas with persistent snow cover through May 15 provides effectiveproxy for habitat requirements

Past, Present---Future?

10 IPCC AR4 models screened for regional skillAverage, cool (pcm1), hot (miroc 3.2)2030-2059, 2070-2099

Historical reconstructionA1B emission scenario

Delta downscaling to 1/16 deg

VIC to generate spring snowpack

Best fit crosswalk to May 15 MODIS data

http://cses.washington.edu/picea/USFS/pub/Littell_etal_2010/Littell_etal._2011_Regional_Climatic_And_Hydrologic_Change_USFS_USFWS_JVA_17Apr11.pdf

Resample to 0.5km; 93.7% correct classification

Historical downscaled VIC May 15 MODIS (Copeland et al. 2010)

From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Historical 2030-2059 Average

2070-2099 Average

67% retained

37% retainedFrom : McKelvey et al. 2011

Hot Average Cool

2070-2099

From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Historical 2030-2059 2070-2099

From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Snow polygons > 1000 km2

2070-2099 Average

From : McKelvey et al. 2011

Sierra Nevada (Tahoe area)