climatic and hydrologic analysis and monitoring at senamhi · climatic and hydrologic analysis and...

Climatic and hydrologic analysis and monitoring at SENAMHI

Dr. Waldo Lavado Casimiro Dr. Wilson Suarez Alayza

PERÚ

Ministerio del Ambiente

Servicio Nacional de Meteorología e Hidrología SENAMHI

wlavado@senamhi.gob.pe wil_suarez@hotmail.com

Studies at SENAMHI

• Water Resources. • Food Security. • Air Quality. • Climate Variability and Change. • Synoptic Meteorology. • Climate Change Impacts.

DGIA DGA DGH DGM

www.senamhi.gob.pe/rpga

SUMMARY

• Hydroclimatological network. • Glacier and Hydrological

Monitoring in the Andes (PRAA Project).

• PACC project first Hydrological results

PERU

Surface : 1 285 220 Km2

27 climate zones different in Peru (SENAMHI,2005)

Drainages: Pacific, Titicaca Lake and Amazonas.

ENSO impact Droughts Glacier recession Floods Frost

Hydrological network at SENAMHI

AMAZONAS Total 69 PACIFIC

Total 53 TITICACA Total 19

AMAZONAS Discharges 8 Level 61

PACIFIC Discharges 25 Levels 28

TITICACA Discharges 16 Levels 3

Climatological network 1970-2000

155 st. for rainfall, 112 st. for tmax, 110 st. for tmin. and 120 st. tmed.

CLIMATOLOGICS MAPS (1970-1999)

Daily observed rainfall data (1998-2009). Total: 413 gauge stations /Pacific: 200/Titicaca: 36/ Amazonas: 177

Daily rainfall network

TRMM daily validation MONTHLY CYCLES 2003- 2009

2003- 2009 CLIMATOLOGY TRMM daily validation

Taylor Diagrams (2003-2009) for drainage O: Observed / T : TRMM / C : CMORPH

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OTC

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TRMM daily validation

Huaytapallana

Salkantay and Vilcanota

GLACIAR MONITORING

Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

Objectives -Monitoring the glaciers in the Vilcanota, Vilcabamba and Huaytapallana -Generate real information about climatic perturbations (climate variability) over 4500 m a.s.l.

Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0

1970 1987 2000 2006

613,0

411,4 383,0 343,6

Santa

-Spatial monitoring Permit know the win or lose of glacier coberture (some times volumes) through the use of Remote Sensing (images Landsat, Spot, Aster, etc.).

Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

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Mantaro

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Landsat 5, 2008

Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

-Mass Balance Monitoring Search know the win or loss of glacier mass using “balizas”, permit know with precision the ELA position (Actually only work in that the UGRH at ANA).

Sembrado de balizas por la UGRH en el nevado Artesonraju

Control de densidad de la nieve en calicata instalada por la UGRH en el nevado Artesonraju

Glacier monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

-Quisoquipina Glacier in the Vilcanota Cordillera

Estacion Hidrologica?

Glacier monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

Route to install the station to the glacier Installation of the station

Station working “Balizas” Control with the help of UGRH

Climatic station to 5180 m a. s. l.

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Temperatura

Hourly temperature of October 2011.

Daily temperature of October 2011

Climatic station to 5180 m a. s. l.

Huaytapallana Glacier

Climatic Statión Hydrological Station Glacier Station

Hydroclimatic station According with SEDA-Huancayo.

Rainfall (include snow sensor) Temperature Atmospheric Pression Speed and Direction wind

Regla limnimetrica Sensores of Snow control

Monitoreo glaciar en la cordillera del Vilcanota, Huaytapallana y Vilcabamba

Huaytapallana

Vilcabamba Nevado Salkantay

Hydrological Control and partial Climatic Control

Summary -We monitoring the Vilcanota cordillera in the Quisoquipina glacier, missing the hydrological sensors. -The Huaytapallana cordillera is partially monitoring, missing hydrological monitoring and installation of climatic station over the glacier. -The Vilcabamba cordillera is monitoring parcially at climatic level and completly at hydrological level in the Salkantay glacier.

Glaciar monitoring in the Vilcanota, Huaytapallana and Vilcabamba

Current availability of water resources and future impacts of climate change on water resources of southern Peruvian

Andes - Cuzco and Apurimac Region PACC Project

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

Vlicanota basin

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

Periodo de Calibracion: 1999-2004

EFICIENCIA

NASH NASH LOG

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

Periodo de Validacion: 2005-2010

EFICIENCIA

NASH NASH LOG

Replica crecida Enero del 20101

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

• Modèls: – Modèle BCM2 (1.9° por 1.9°). – Modèle CSMK3 (1.9° per 1.9°) . – Modèle MIHR (1.1° por 1.1°).

DATA IPCC

• Scenarios (2001-2099) Hypothèse de stabilisation à 720 ppm CO2 (SRES A1B). Hypothèse de stabilisation à 550 ppm CO2 (SRES B1).

D’ après MRI global climate model (MRI-CGCM2.3.2)

A1B

B1

• Variables: – Précipitation – Température

Interpolation over Pisac basin using krigging

Adaptation to Climate Change Program Project

The modeling of the multiannual means of the different climate scenarios with 3 different GCM’s showed that generally there are more negative means than positive means. But there is no overall trend within the GCM’s visible. The trend depends on the model, thus the MIHR model clearly shows a trend towards negative values for the future.

Problems about Hydroglaciological studies in the Peruvian Andes

• Poorly distribution of hydroclimatological stations.

• Not enough qualified staff for Hydroglaciological studies (at present we do not have some University with this field) .

• Functions duplicates: several institutions with different project but with the same purpose.

• We are user of RCM that many times are not good for Peruvian Andes region.

CHALLENGES related to ACCION -More Hydroclimatological and Glacier Monitoring around Peru.

-Improve Hydroglaciological Models at little scale for glacier purposes.

-Validate satellite data (e.g. TRMM, CMORPH, PERSIANN, etc.) for evaluate

use in hydroclimatological and glaciological applications.

-Analysis of climate variability and analysis of extremes climatics(e.g.

Droughts, Floods).

-Improve CC scenarios through downscaling techniques overall in the Andes

region.

-Improve the capability of SENAMHI staff through education in related fields

to ACCION (e.g. Ph. D. or Mg. Sc.).

-Work with another institutions for use our studies in Adaptation to CC

(Diffusion).

Vicuñas frente al glaciar Quisoquipina Foto: Wilson Suarez

THANKS