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CNX Coal Resources LPVirginia Coal and Energy Alliance
37th Annual Conference
Cautionary Statements
Various statements in this presentation, including those that express a belief, expectation or intention, may be considered forward-looking statements under federal securities laws including Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 (the "Exchange Act") that involve risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from projected results. Accordingly, investors should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements as a prediction of actual results. The forward-looking statements may include projections and estimates concerning the timing and success of specific projects and our future production, revenues, income and capital spending. When we use the words "believe," "intend," "expect," "may," "should," "anticipate," "could," "estimate," "plan," "predict," "project," or their negatives, or other similar expressions, the statements which include those words are usually forward-looking statements. When we describe strategy that involves risks or uncertainties, we are making forward-looking statements. The forward-looking statements in this presentation, if any, speak only as of the date of this presentation; we disclaim any obligation to update these statements. We have based these forward-looking statements on our current expectations and assumptions about future events. While our management considers these expectations and assumptions to be reasonable, they are inherently subject to significant business, economic, competitive, regulatory and other risks, contingencies and uncertainties, most of which are difficult to predict and many of which are beyond our control. These risks, contingencies and uncertainties relate to, among other matters, changes in coal prices or the costs of mining or transporting coal; uncertainty in estimating economically recoverable coal reserves and replacement of reserves; our ability to develop our existing coal reserves and successfully execute our mining plans; changes in general economic conditions, both domestically and globally; competitive conditions within the coal industry; changes in the consumption patterns of coal-fired power plants and steelmakers and other factors affecting the demand for coal by coal-fired power plants and steelmakers; the availability and price of coal to the consumer compared to the price of alternative and competing fuels; competition from the same and alternative energy sources; energy efficiency and technology trends; our ability to successfully implement our business plan; the price and availability of debt and equity financing; operating hazards and other risks incidental to coal mining; major equipment failures and difficulties in obtaining equipment, parts and raw materials; availability, reliability and costs of transporting coal; adverse or abnormal geologic conditions, which may be unforeseen; natural disasters, weather-related delays, casualty losses and other matters beyond our control; interest rates; labor availability, relations and other workforce factors; defaults by our sponsor under our operating agreement and employee services agreement; changes in availability and cost of capital; changes in our tax status; delays in the receipt of, failure to receive or revocation of necessary governmental permits; defects in title or loss of any leasehold interests with respect to our properties; the effect of existing and future laws and government regulations, including the enforcement and interpretation of environmental laws thereof; the effect of new or expanded greenhouse gas regulations; the effects of litigation and the other factors discussed in the "Risk Factors" section of our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as well as any subsequent report on Form 10-Q that we file with the SEC. This presentation does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation of offers to buy securities of CONSOL Energy Inc. or CNX Coal Resources LP.
This presentation also contains information about the Partnership’s adjusted EBITDA, which is not a measure derived in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles (“GAAP”) and which excludes components that are important to understanding the Partnership’s financial performance. Adjusted EBITDA should not be considered an alternative to net income or any other measure of financial performance or liquidity presented in accordance with GAAP. Adjusted EBITDA excludes some, but not all, items that affect net income or net cash, and our presentation may vary from the presentations of other companies. As a result, adjusted EBITDA as presented herein may not be comparable to similarly titled measures of other companies. Reconciliations of adjusted EBITDA to net income, the most directly comparable GAAP financial measure, can be found in our Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q for the period ended March 31, 2015 and in this presentation.
1
CNXC Organizational Structure
2
CNXC owns a 20% undivided interest in and operational control over CONSOL Energy’s Pennsylvania mining complex
CONSOL Energy retained an 80% undivided interest in the Pennsylvania mining complex and owns 100% of CNXC’s general partner, as well as the incentive distribution rights
Economically incentivized to grow CNXC
CONSOL Energy granted CNXC a right of first offer to acquire the remaining 80% undivided interest
Certain other Sponsor ROFO Assets
Majority of units owned by our Sponsor are subordinated
CNXC – 20% Undivided Interest in Pennsylvania Mining Complex (Bailey, Enlow Fork and Harvey mines)
Sponsor is strategically aligned with CNXC and incentivized to support growth to enhance value of MLP business
CONSOL Energy Inc. (“CONSOL Energy”)
NYSE: CNX 1,050,000 Common Units
11,611,067 Subordinated Units
CNX Coal Resources GP LLC (“our general partner”)
2% General Partner Interest Incentive Distribution Rights
2% general partner interest
CNX Coal Resources LP (the “Partnership”)
NYSE: CNXC
53.4% limited partner interest
80% undivided ownership interest
20% undivided ownership interest and management and control rights
100% ownership interest
Pennsylvania mining complex
CNX Coal Resources Operating LLC
CNX Thermal Coal Company LLC
100% ownership interest
100% ownership interest
Public and Private Placement 10,561,067
Common Units
44.6% limited partner interest
Significant Focus on Safety, Compliance andContinuous Improvement
3
Continued focus on core values of safety, compliance and continuous improvement
Operate some of the industry’s safest underground mines MSHA incident rate ~53% lower than national
average rate(1)
MSHA significant and substantial citation rate ~22% lower than the industry average rate(2)
Promotes greater reliability in operations, lower operating costs and long-term customer relationships
Exemplary Safety and Compliance Record (PA mining complex)
(1) Based on incident rates for 2012- 2015 period. Source: MSHA(2) For the Feb 1, 2015-Jan 31, 2016 period ; National industry rate for significant & substantial citations & orders per 100 inspection hours. Source: MSHA
CONSOL constructed the first underground training academy in the United States dedicated to training miners and improving their safety performance and regulatory compliance
We continue to focus on our core values of safety, compliance and continuous improvement
Underground Training Academy
Experienced staff provide technical services to assist customers in the new, expanded, and continued use of our coal
Technical Services
4.95
2.62.352.03
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
Incident Rate S&S Citation Rate
Industry Average PA Operations
90
59
1116
21
0
25
50
75
100
Notice of Violation/Non-compliance2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Mine
Total Recoverable
Reserves (tons)
Average AR Gross
Heat Content (Btu/lb)
Average AR Sulfur Content
Annual Production
Capacity (tons)
Production (tons)
Bailey(1) 271.7 12,940 2.64% 11.5 10.2
Enlow Fork(1) 316.2 12,940 2.19% 11.5 9.0
Harvey(1) 203.5 13,070 2.25% 5.5 3.6
Total 791.4 12,970 2.36% 28.5 22.8
Illinois Basin(2) 11,355 2.95%
Other NAPP(2) 12,334 3.23%
Other Coal MLPs(2,3) 11,815 2.81%
Overview of Pennsylvania Mining Complex
4
Pennsylvania mining complex consists of three like-new underground mines and related infrastructure with high-Btu bituminous coal (791.4 million tons proven and probable(1))
PA mining complex – 791.4 million tons reserves / 28.5 million tons annual capacity(1)
Train loadout facility (up to 9,000 tons per hour) with dual rail access with Norfolk Southern and CSX
High-Btu bituminous thermal coal is primarily sold to utility companies in the eastern United States: ~13,000 Btus per pound average gross heat content and 2.36% average sulfur content
Five longwalls and 18 continuous mining sections
Access to seaborne markets through CONSOL-owned Baltimore Marine Terminal for exporting thermal and metallurgical coal
Over $2.0 billion invested in Harvey Mine, new slopes, overland conveyor belts, equipment, and plant upgrades since 2008
(1) For the period ending and as of December 31, 2015.(2) Source: EIA. Represents average power plant deliveries for the twelve months ending February 29, 2016.(3) Includes Northern Appalachian and Illinois Basin production from ARLP, FELP, RHNO, and WMLP.Note: Data shown on a 100% basis for the PA Mining Complex. CNXC owns a 20% interest in the complex.
BaltimoreTerminal
PA MiningComplex
Active Complex
Port/Dock
2015 PA MiningComplex Customers
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Navigating Current Challenges in Energy Markets
5
Improve customer product shipment schedules to improve operational consistency
Pursue contract buy-outs, and other value preserving alternatives with customers
delaying shipments beyond contractual flexibility
Align the marketing strategy to the MLP structure through structured contracting
effort and reduce price volatility
Focused on distribution preservation while retaining flexibility for growth
Marketing Targets
Operational Adjustments
Temporarily idled one longwall and re-aligned schedules for remaining longwalls
Continue to optimize corporate and production employee base
Reset compensation and benefit structure for all employees
Seeking additional cost savings from vendors/supply chain
Continue to optimize the cost structure through operational improvements
Financial Priorities
Maintain current distribution level
Continue to control costs and defer discretionary capital spending
Identify other opportunities to improve the distribution coverage ratio
Continue to evaluate potential for a drop-down/acquisition
Coal Markets – Where Are We Today?
Natural gas prices and demand factors have created unprecedented challenges
The recent “shale boom” resulted in an over-supply of natural gas that has caused a major downturn in gas prices
Unusually warm winter has created significant impact on natural gas prices, power markets and coal generation
Coal continues to be under attack with domestic demand being forcibly reduced by regulations on coal-fired power plants as well as coal producers
Flat U.S. electricity demand since 2007 has limited growth opportunities for the energy industry
International exports have fallen to the lowest levels in years due to the strong dollar and slowing demand growth in China
Access to capital is challenging for energy in general, and for coal and MLPs in particular
6
US Coal Supply and Demand Trends
7
700
850
1000
1150
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Mill
ion
Tons
Year
SupplyDemand
*Projected
* *
Source: EIA
Warm Winter Weighed Heavily on Near-Term Coal Burn
8
Record Coldest
(1)
Much Below
Average
Below Average
Near Average
Above Average
Much Above
Average
Record Warmest
(121)
Statewide Average Temperature RanksDecember 2015
Period 1895-2015
Source: climate.gov
Record-breaking warm winter throughout the eastern U.S. has exacerbated the supply-demand imbalance for both coal and natural gas markets
Destruction of Coal Market Capitalizations
Access to capital and cost of capital has increased for coal companies in the aftermath of multiple bankruptcies
Meaningful decline in overall capitalization driven by declining coal prices, reduction in volume
(exports as well as competition for natural gas) and increasing costs (regulations and declining
reserve base)
Increased the use of leverage in the post-financial crisis era - mostly to fund acquisitions for met
coal assets
9
-
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
9020
05
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Capi
taliz
atio
n ($
Billi
ons)
Equity Net Debt
Gas Market Dynamics Poised for Change
All signs point to limited or negative natural gas production growth in the near-term
Industry cash flow and liquidity have declined meaningfully
Producer leverage ratios are limiting ability to raise capital
Producers are estimated to cut capital expenditures 66% on average and have lowered production guidance
US natural gas rig count has fallen to 89 compared to 372 two years ago
The supply of drilled uncompleted wells (DUCs) in inventory will decline as producers turn DUCs online in place of drilling new wells
10
8541,027 917
766
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
June 2014 Jan 2015 June 2015 Jan 2016
Uncoventional Wells Spudded, Not Completed (PA DEP Production Reports)
85
31
2110-
20
40
60
80
100
2014 2015 2016
Appalachia Gas Rig CountsUtica Gas Rigs Marcellus Gas Rigs
3,158
2,080<1,500
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2014 2015 2016E
PA DEP Gas Well Permits Issued
Source: EIA, Baker Hughes, PA DEP, SNL, Wall Street research
Gas Supply Discipline is Accompanied by an Improving Demand Picture
Sustainable demand is expected to grow as new gas-fired power plants, industrial plants, and export infrastructure are built, putting upward pressure on prices
Base U.S. demand driven by power generators and resurgence in industrial demand Anticipated electricity demand growth of 1.2% from 2016 to 2018, following relatively flat demand from 2007-2015 About 264 chemical projects ($164B) tied to shale on the drawing board; 40% completed or in process
U.S. Expected to be net exporter of natural gas in 2017 compared to net imports of 2.6 Bcf/d in 2015 Current U.S.-to-Mexico pipeline capacity is set to expand by ~8.3 Bcf/d, with 9 projects planned over the next 4 years About 10.5 Bcf/d of LNG capacity expected to come online by 2020
CNXC will also benefit from the pipeline capacity being built to transport Appalachian gas to demand centers outside of the region
11
73.1
75.3 75.8 76.4 76.6
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
US Demand (Bcf/d)
(3.2)(2.6)
(0.5)
0.2 1.1
(3.5)(3.0)(2.5)(2.0)(1.5)(1.0)(0.5)
-0.51.01.5
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Net Exports (Bcf/d)
Source: EIA, Simmons, BMO, Morgan Stanley, Evercore ISI
Forward Market Signals are Becoming MoreEncouraging
The recent fall in natural gas prices has directly and dramatically impacted U.S. coal-fired generation, but a strengthening gas forward curve points toward recovery through 2017
12
Source: EIA, SNL
$1.50
$1.70
$1.90
$2.10
$2.30
$2.50
$2.70
$2.90
$3.10
$3.30
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
5,000
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 May-17 Aug-17 Nov-17
Hen
ry H
ub N
atur
al G
as P
rice
($/m
mB
tu)
U.S
. Coa
l-Fire
d G
ener
atio
n (T
hous
and
MW
h/da
y)
U.S. Coal-Fired GenerationHenry Hub Spot PriceNYMEX Henry Hub Forward Strip
Feb 2016
Mar 2016
Apr 2016
May 2016
Coal and gas tightly linked as market
imbalance widened
Strengthening gas forward curve points
to improving fundamentals
26%
28%
30%
32%
34%
36%
38%
40%
42%
44%
46%
< $2.00 $2.00-$2.50 $2.50-$3.00 $3.00-$3.50 $3.50-$4.00 $4.00-$4.50 > $4.50
Coa
l Sha
re o
f Mon
thly
Gen
erat
ion
(%)
Monthly Average Natural Gas Price ($/mmBtu, Henry Hub Spot)
Range
Average
Improving Gas Market Fundamentals Will PositivelyImpact Coal Demand and Pricing
Natural gas prices have been suppressing coal prices, but that dynamic can change quickly
A 1% increase in coal’s share of generation equates to a 20-25 million ton / year increase in U.S. electric power sector coal demand
A $0.50/MMBtu increase in the price of gas implies a roughly $12-14/ton increase in the equivalent delivered price of Northern Appalachian coal, assuming coal competes with simple cycle gas on the margin
Right-sizing of coal supply under current market conditions will help set the stage for coal prices to rebound with uptick in gas prices
13
Coal Share of U.S. Generation vs. Natural Gas Price Ranges (January 2012 – February 2016)
Source: EIA
Source: EIA
Coal Supply Discipline Provides Further Support for Market Rebalancing
Deep production cuts being seen across all major basins
Supply from major coal basins declining at unprecedented pace (24-35% year-on-year through Q1)
Capital expenditures have been under tight control with limited-to-no capex being allocated to newprojects/mines
14
Source: MSHA
2014 2015 ChangeNAPP 135 118 -17 -12%CAPP 117 91 -26 -22%ILB 137 124 -13 -10%PRB 426 405 -21 -5%Other 185 159 -26 -14%TOTAL 1000 897 -103 -10%
U.S. Coal Production by Basin(mm tons), 2014-2015
Q1 2015
Q1 2016 Change
NAPP 33 25 -8 -24%CAPP 26 17 -9 -34%ILB 35 25 -10 -28%PRB 108 70 -37 -35%Other 39 35 -4 -9%TOTAL 240 173 -67 -28%
U.S. Coal Production by Basin(mm tons), Q1 2016 vs. Q1 2015
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Ret
ired
Cap
acity
(MW
)
All Coal Types
Eastern Bituminous(Pri Fuel)
We Have Moved Beyond MATS and are Looking Toward the Future
With MATS essentially behind us, the remaining coal fleet is clean, modern and efficient, with capacity to increase coal burn relative to recent levels
15
Coal plants expected to remain operating beyond 2019
2011-2016:54 GW
65% Eastern Bit
2017-2019:14 GW
38% Eastern Bit
Actual / Announced Coal Unit Retirements, 2011-2019
Latest Outlook: Coal Still Expected to Retain a Sizable Presence
Coal has a role in the nation’s future energy mix, and the most efficient, lowest-cost mines will be well positioned to survive and thrive
16
Coal Remains a Valuable Resource for the Nation’s Energy Future
17
Source: World Energy Council, Post Carbon Institute
Key Takeaways
We will recover; the question is how fast and who will be left standing
Current coal and natural gas markets are challenging, but we believe that recovery is on the horizon…
An unseasonably warm winter in the eastern U.S., including the warmest December in 121 years, coupled with the decline of all energy prices created a “perfect storm” … but not a fundamental change
Natural gas supply/demand balance is poised to improve
Credit access for both coal and E&P companies is greatly reduced
Coal production in all major basins is down nearly 30%, and restructured companies will significantly cut future production
18
Coal Industry – The Path Forward
Safety and compliance are paramount to producers and customers alike
Utilities and coal producers need to improve forecasting and commitments to evolve accordingly
Contract structures need to evolve to reflect market realities
Coal pricing and shipments are becoming more weather-driven and more sensitive to demand fluctuations
Reshaping coal industry – regional focus instead of national consolidation?
Industry needs to be investable again – access to capital has to improve to achieve long-term sustainability
19
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