commercial aviation safety team (cast)
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Commercial AviationCommercial AviationSafety Team (CAST)Safety Team (CAST)
David Downey
International Aircraft Fire and
Cabin Safety Research Conference
Lisbon, Portugal, November 2004
In the U.S., our focus was set by theIn the U.S., our focus was set by theWhite House Commission on Aviation Safety, White House Commission on Aviation Safety,
and The National Civil Aviation Review and The National Civil Aviation Review Commission (NCARC) Commission (NCARC)
“Reduce Fatal Accident Rate by 80%”
“Strategic Plan to Improve Safety”“Improve Safety Worldwide”
We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Hull loss accident rate
We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Hull loss accident rate
Airplanes in service
32,495
2021
Departures, Millions
17,357
2002
Boeing 11,693
We Need to Continuously ImproveWe Need to Continuously ImproveAviation SafetyAviation Safety
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Hull loss accidentsper year
Hull loss accident rate
Airplanes in service
32,495
2021
Departures, Millions
Business as usual
17,357
2002
Boeing 11,693
Our goal
Historical Part 121 Fatality Risk (1987-2000)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%To
tal
LOC
Flt
CFI
T
Fire
/Exp
losi
onR
unw
ay C
ollis
ion
LOC
GN
D
Mid
air
Cre
w In
c
Eng
-UC
EF
Sys
-Com
p
Turb
ulen
ce
Eva
c
Fat
alit
y R
isk
HUMAN FACTORSIN OPERATIONS &
MAINTENANCE
Carry-on Baggage
Child Restraint
Passenger Interference
CABIN SAFETY
IMPROVED DATA & ANALYSIS
GENERAL AVIATION
Loss of Control
Weather
Survivability
Aeronautical Decisionmaking
Controlled Flight
Into Terrain Approach and Landing
COMMERCIAL AVIATION
Controlled Flight Into Terrain
Loss of Control
Weather
Uncontained Engine Failures
Runway IncursionPassenger Seat Belt Use
Runway Incursions
Safer SkiesSafer Skies
Turbulence
CAST GoalsCAST Goals
• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal accident rate by 80% by 2007
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA, FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations and appropriate regulatory/ government authorities to reduce worldwide commercial aviation fatal accident rate
Industry
Commercial Aviation Commercial Aviation Safety TeamSafety Team
(CAST)(CAST)
Government
* Representing GE and RR** Observer
DODFAA
• Aircraft Certification• Flight Standards• System Safety• Air Traffic Operations• Research
NASAICAO**JAATCCNATCA** NTSB**
AIAAirbusALPAAPAATAIFALPANACABoeingP&W*RAAFSF
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
IATA**AAPA** ATAC**APFA**
• Safety enhancement development
• Master safety plan • Enhancement
effectiveness• Future areas of study
CASTCAST• Data analyses
Joint Safety Joint Safety Analysis Teams (JSAT)Analysis Teams (JSAT)
Joint Safety Joint Safety Implementation Implementation
Teams (JSIT)Teams (JSIT)
Joint Implementation Joint Implementation Measurement Data Measurement Data
Analysis Team (JIMDAT)Analysis Team (JIMDAT)
Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
CAST Integrated Strategic Safety PlanCAST Integrated Strategic Safety Plan
• Ongoing Industry and FAA Safer Skies Initiatives were Combined into CAST
• Data-Driven, Consensus-Based, Integrated Strategic Safety Plan Developed
• 46 Prioritized Safety Enhancements• 8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies.• Projected 73% Risk Reduction by 2007
• Safety Enhancements in place and fully supported by Government and Industry
CAST Safety Plan SpecificsCAST Safety Plan Specifics
CAST Safety PlanCAST Safety Plan
25 Completed Safety Enhancements Safety Culture Maintenance Procedures Flight Crew Training Air Traffic Controller Training Uncontained Engine Failures Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS) Standard Operating Procedures Precision Approaches Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems Proactive Safety Programs (FOQA + ASAP)
CAST Safety Plan (cont.)CAST Safety Plan (cont.)
21 Committed Safety Enhancements Policies and Procedures Aircraft Design Flight Crew Training (additional aspects) Runway Incursion Prevention Precision Approaches (additional projects)
8 R&D Projects and 2 Studies
Resource Cost Vs. Risk ReductionResource Cost Vs. Risk Reduction
APPROVED PLAN
Completed + Plan (2007
Implementation Level)
Completed + Plan (2020
Implementation Level)
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements
(2020 Implementation
Level)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
9000
10000
Re
so
urc
e C
os
t ($
Mil
lio
ns
)
Risk Reduction
Total Cost in $ (Millions)
2007 2020
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Ris
k E
lim
ina
ted
by
Sa
fety
En
ha
nc
em
en
ts
Completed
CAST-050
Safety Plan BenefitsSafety Plan Benefits
Prediction of a 73% risk reduction that also results in approximately $620 million annual savings to the industry Current accident cost per flight is approximately
$76 cycle Implementation of the 46 selected safety
enhancements reduces this cost by $56 per flight cycle
Safety is morally required and is also good for business
Do
llars
/Flt
. Cy
c
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull Loss Accidents
100
80
60
40
20
0
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
73% Risk reduction
Savings ~ $56/Flight Cycle
Or
~ $620 Million Dollars/Year
Cost of accident fatalities following implementation of the CAST plan @ 2007 levels
2002 2007
Cost SavingsCost Savings
Hull Loss & Fatal AccidentsPortion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
Tota
l
LOC
Flt
CFI
TFi
re/E
xplo
sion
Run
way
Col
lisio
n
LOC
GN
D
Mid
air
Cre
w In
c
Eng
-UC
EF
Sys
-Com
p
Turb
ulen
ce
Eva
c
Po
rtio
n o
f R
isk
Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset – Security events excluded.
All Regions Combined Hull Loss & Fatal World Wide Accidents
Portion of Fatality Risk Mitigated If CAST Plan is Adopted World Wide(2007 Implementation Values)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Por
tion
of R
isk
Risk EliminatedRisk Remaining
Accident Classes Defined by CAST/ICAO Common Taxonomy
Safety Metrics ExamplesSafety Metrics ExamplesSafety Enhancement Indicator
1. Terrain Avoidance Warning System (TAWS)
Reduction in MSAW alertsReduction in valid GPWS alerts (CFIT)
4. CFIT PAI-Vertical Angles (7-11,18)
Percentage of operators who have adopted constant angle approaches
Continuous reduction in the number of approaches where descent rates exceed 1000 feet per minute in final approach phase, reduction in the percentage of dive and drive approaches and the number of unstabilized approaches
21. ALAR Flight Deck Equipment Upgrades – New Type Designs (1-3)
Reduction in number of inadvertent descents below decision height
23. ALAR Flight Crew Training – one project
Continuous reduction in the number of busted approach gates and altitude busts
27. LOC Policies and Procedures – Risk Assessments and Management – one project
Percentage of operators/manufacturers with risk assessment/management processes in place
Continuous reduction in the number of operations with recurring intermittent failures in flight critical systems
Percentage of operators with a process to include safety information in manuals
International International OutreachOutreach
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldRegional PerspectiveRegional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*
Accidents permillion departures1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
* 2003 Preliminary Information
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.4
Europe0.7
China0.5
Middle East3.1
Africa13.3
Asia1.7
World1.0
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
11/1/03 REG-053a
Regional PerspectiveRegional PerspectiveAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldRegional PerspectiveRegional Perspective
Accident Rates Vary by Region of the WorldAccident Rates Vary by Region of the World
Western-built transport hull loss accidents, by airline domicile, 1994 through 2003*
Accidents permillion departures
1Insufficient fleet experience to generate reliable rate.
* 2003 Preliminary Information
United Statesand Canada
0.4
Latin Americaand Caribbean
2.4
Europe0.7
China0.5
Middle East3.1
Africa13.3
Asia1.7
World1.0
Oceania0.0
(ExcludingChina)
JAA - 0.6Non JAA – 1.2
C.I.S.1
27 May 2004 -KLO
CAST46 SEs25 complete21 in work73% reduction
JSSI35 SEs 11 SEs to EASA11 complete62% reduction
PAASTCFIT, ALAR & RISE-23 +
ASETJust forming up
COSCAP’s Asia 12 SEs on plan 60% reduction
COSCAP CISJust starting
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