complexity & uncertainty in environmental indicators

@cjlortie #enviroindicate

Metrics are not just for eggheads anymore.

Complexities and uncertainties: integrating environmental indicators.

human values tag cloud

@cjlortie #enviroindicate

E. coli transcriptional regulatory network

Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.

Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.

power relationship between nations

Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.

products & manufacturing

Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.

how we communicate

Most interesting networks of ideas, data, or challenges are complex.

truthfully, any aspect of you

Complexities kills, simplicity sells.

This is an outdated & incorrect view of complexity.

how we communicate

Complexities kills, simplicity sells.

Complexity is not complicated.

Complicated is made up of intricate parts or aspects that are difficult to understand or analyze.

dictionary.com

Complicated is made up of intricate parts or aspects that are difficult to understand or analyze.

difficult implies intractable.

Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.

Johnson 2009. Simply complexity: A clear guide to complexity theory.

Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.

Complexity is the description of a phenomena that emerge from a collection of interacting objects.

complicated complex

key: interactions

Solutions that embrace complexityoften include the following elements: 1. incorporate uncertainty 2. visualize 3. use big data 4. measure interactions

Berlow PNAS 2009

uncertainty decreases with network size and complexity

Solutions that embrace complexity 1. uncertainty 2. visualize 3. use big data 4. interactions

greater complexity simplifies predicting interaction strengths

food webs

600 networks 254,032 pair-wise interactions

video: http://www.ted.com/talks/eric_berlow_how_complexity_leads_to_simplicity

extensions to ‘greater complexity simplifies predicting interactions’ are profound & extensive

Solutions to complexity & uncertaintyin environmental measurement theory

certain uncertain

certain

uncertain

Boyd et al 1993 The Academy of Management Review

randomized envtw/ uncertainty

misperceived envt

Type I error

misperceived envt

Type II error

randomized envtw/ uncertainty

expected

observed divergence is inevitable

sources of divergence in metrics

Boyd et al 1993 The Academy of Management Review

data aggregation

correspondence

generalizability

reliability & variability

sources of variation

solution: consider mediating filters, i.e. the level that metricsdescribing complexity are needed/used

subject & audience effects

Particularly important for environmental indicators or three reasons.

1. Expert opinion. 2. Variety of processes we must manage. 3. Integration of ecological, economic, & social is challenging.

But, people love numbers & indicators.

These tools allow us to move the slider from complicated (why I am so tired?) to complex (interactions btwn

caffeine & exercise).

These tools can also be effective agents of change.

But, what are the tools for ecological & environmentalassessment & management?

Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators

1. Define the problem. 2. Determine the ecosystems involved.3. Find and quantify the sources to the problem.4. Use diagnostics to study problem-source relations.5. Determine the tools we need to solve problem.6. Identify measures and take proper action.7. Follow the recovery process by a wide monitoring program.

Steps to integrated ecological–environmental management

ei

ei

Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators

to tackle steps 1-4, we can use

ecological models ecological/environmental indicators ecosystem services

Jørgensen & Nielsen 2012 Ecological Indicators

1. Reductionistic 2. Semiholistic3. Holistic4. Super-holistic

classification of indicators

all levels of indicators push the slider to complexity

best solutions for integrative environmental indicatorsuse both models & services

ocean health index !

http://www.oceanhealthindex.org

super-holistic, complex, but integrative

visual & comparable

actionable & agent of change

audience appropriate: global

Brazil

audience appropriate: flexible

environmental performance index http://epi.yale.edu

holistic, complex, but integrative

visual & comparable

actionable & agent of change

transparent, issue-based, audience appropriate

9 issues & 20 indicators integrated

SNHI Sustainable Neighborhoods for Happiness Index

Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

semiholistic, complex, & integrative

Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

comparable & transparent

Cloutier et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

EBI ecosystem service bundle index

Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

reductionistic but integrative

Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

audience appropriate, scaleable, & comparable

Van der Biest et al 2014 Ecological Indicators

ei best principles

ei best principles

visual integrated quantitative transparent audience appropriate scalable & comparable interactive & accessible

implications for environmental assessment

to tackle environmental management we use !ecological models ecological/environmental indicators ecosystem services !Primary value is heuristic. !However, their real power lies in setting the future boundaries, barriers, incentives, and terms for positive environmental decisions.

Oreskes et al 2007 Science

Leong 2014 on uncertainty

Ultimately, we should be managing humans not resources.

inspired by Ludwig et al 1993 Science

resources

http://louisdietvorst.wordpress.com/tag/complexity/ http://www.nature.com/scitable/content/the-extreme-complexity-of-the-e-coli-14457504 http://blog.digital.telefonica.com/2013/02/18/tony-poulos-complexity-kills-simplicity-sells/ http://visualign.files.wordpress.com/2011/11/productspace.png http://www.smartinsights.com/digital-marketing-strategy/customer-acquisition-strategy/strategies-to-reach-and-engage-online-audiences/ http://harvardmagazine.com/2011/05/fathoming-metabolism#article-images http://www.smartinsights.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/Microsoft-PowerPoint-13.png

primary TED talk on simplicity ocean health index Ecological Indicators journal

visuals

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

1. measure 2. visualize & map 3. integrate 4. implicate*

The 4 steps.

*correlation, causation, & statistical modelsuncertainty

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

Option A. Visualize a single day and assess impact.

activities

food

spending environmentalimpactlog relate

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

Option B. Calculate your footprint with & without one major driver.

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

my life with & without flights for research

www.myfootprint.org

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

Option C. Develop your own index for a personal issue.

exercise: convert complicated into complex.

Sleep Caffeine

Transportation Food

Impact