crecimiento lento, pero crecimiento · proyección de la fed a partir del resumen de proyecciones...
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Crecimiento lento, pero crecimiento
Gabriela Guerrero
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
20 de marzo 2019
Ventas del equipo de distribución de BlackRock
Índice
3 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
1. Actualización macroeconómica
• Crecimiento lento, pero crecimiento
2. Fondos 2019
• Renta Fija Europea
– BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
– BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
• Fondos multiactivo
– BGF Global Allocation Fund
Crecimiento lento, pero crecimiento
Rentabilidad de los activos, 4T18 y YTD19
5 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
-20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25
Japan equity
U.S. equity
China A-Share
Europe equity
EM equity
Global HY
$ EMD
Global IG
USD index
10-year U.S. govt.
Rentabilidades (%)
Q4 2018 2019 YTD
La rentabilidad pasada no es indicador de los resultados actuales o futuros. No es posible invertir directamente en un índice. Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute, con datos de Thomson Reuters, marzo de 2019. Notas: Los índices mostrados son el índice de
referencia a 10 años de Thomson Reuters, el índice DXY, Bloomberg Barclays Global Corporate Grade Grade Index, JPM EMBI Global Diversified Index, Bloomberg Barclays Índice global de alto rendimiento, índice MSCI de mercados emergentes, índice MSCI Europe, índice
Shanghai SE A-Share, índice MSCI USA, índice MSCI Japan
InglésInglésInglésInglésInglés
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-20
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10
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Glo
ba
l s
toc
ks
(%
)
Global bonds (%)
Rentabilidad anual global (renta variable y renta fija), 1991 - 2018
6 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Renta variable positivo
Renta fija negativo
Renta variable positivo
Renta fija positivo
Renta variable negativo
Renta fija positivo
Renta variable negativo
Renta fija negativo
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
¿Cómo se comportaran los mercados en el
2019?
7
How will global stocks and bonds perform in 2019?
Renta variable, Renta fija
Renta variable, Renta fija
Renta variable, Renta fija
Renta variable, Renta fija
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital 8
How will global stocks and bonds perform in 2019?
Renta variable, Renta fija
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital 9
3 Factores a tener en cuenta:
10 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
1
Políticas monetarias y
fiscales
2
Riesgo geopolíticos
3
Ralentización del
crecimiento
11 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Es posible que las estimaciones prospectivas no se cumplan. Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute, FMI, Comisión Europea y Oficina de Responsabilidad Presupuestaria del Reino Unido, con datos de
Thomson Reuters, marzo de 2019. Notas: Este gráfico muestra estimaciones del impacto de la política fiscal en el crecimiento del PIB mundial a lo largo del tiempo. Las estimaciones se obtienen tomando el cambio anual en el déficit fiscal primario ajustado en función del ciclo de cada
región como porcentaje del PIB mundial.
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
2017 2018 2019 2020
Fis
ca
l Im
pu
lse
(%
of
glo
ba
l G
DP
)
U.S. Eurozone China U.K.
2019 agregado
Políticas fiscales del G7 y China, 2017-2019 1
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
0,9
1
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
12
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1 Política monetaria en EEUU
Política monetaria EEUU y estimación, 1990-2022
U.S. Recession
Fed Funds Rate
Equilibrium neutral rate
Current neutral rate
Fed dots (Dec 2018)
Las estimaciones prospectivas pueden no suceder. Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute, la Reserva Federal, NBER, Consensus Economics y el BCE, con datos de
Thomson Reuters, enero de 2019. Notas: El gráfico muestra la tasa de política de la Fed, nuestras estimaciones del equilibrio y las tasas neutrales actuales, y la mediana
Proyección de la Fed a partir del resumen de proyecciones económicas (diciembre de 2018). Este modelo tiene en cuenta el ciclo financiero.
-0,25
0
0,25
0,5
nov 2018 dic 2018 ene 2019 feb 2019 mar 2019
Ra
te h
ike
s /
cu
ts p
ric
ed
(p
pt
po
ints
)
Dos subidas
Una subida
Una bajada
Tipos de interés en EEUU descontados por el mercado
Las estimaciones prospectivas pueden no suceder. Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute con datos de Bloomberg, marzo de 2019. Notas: El gráfico muestra el
cambio implícito en el mercado de las tasas de interés estadounidenses a corto plazo sobre 2019, como se refleja en los futuros del Eurodólar.
Ra
te (
%)
-0,4
-0,3
-0,2
-0,1
0
0,1
0,2
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Po
lic
y r
ate
(%
)
13
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
Política monetaria Europa y estimación, 1990-2019
Las estimaciones prospectivas pueden no suceder.
Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute, la Reserva Federal, NBER, Consensus Economics y el BCE, con datos de Thomson Reuters, enero de 2019. Notas: El gráfico muestra la tasa de política de la Fed, nuestras estimaciones del equilibrio y las tasas neutrales actuales, y la
mediana Proyección de la Fed a partir del resumen de proyecciones económicas (diciembre de 2018). El gráfico de la derecha muestra la tasa de política del BCE y nuestra estimación de las
tasas neutrales actuales y de equilibrio. Este modelo tiene en cuenta el ciclo financiero.
Política monetaria eurozona, 2015-2020
Las estimaciones prospectivas pueden no suceder.
Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute con datos de Bloomberg, marzo de 2019. Notas: El gráfico muestra los niveles históricos de EONIA y los precios a futuro.
Current forwards
EONIA
Forwards at Dec 2018
0
0,1
0,2
0,3
0,4
0,5
0,6
0,7
0,8
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ra
te (
%)
European recession
ECB policy rate
Current neutral rate
Long-term
neutral rate
1 Política monetaria en Europa
14
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-30%
-20%
-10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
ene 2017 jul 2017 ene 2018 jul 2018 ene 2019
Re
turn
(%
)
Uncertainty effect MSCI World performance Growth effect
Riesgos Geopolíticos 2
El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los resultados actuales o futuros. No es posible invertir directamente en un índice. Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute con datos de Thomson Reuters, marzo de 2019. Notas: La línea naranja muestra el rendimiento acumulado de MSCI World
desde enero de 2017. Los rendimientos se desglosan en el efecto de "efecto de crecimiento" y "incertidumbre". Los rendimientos reales y las acciones se interpretan como el precio del mercado en un cambio en las expectativas de crecimiento: el efecto del crecimiento. El cambio no relacionado con el crecimiento
es el efecto de la incertidumbre. Nos basamos en la metodología utilizada en el documento de 2014 del FMI Noticias y choques monetarios a una alta frecuencia : Un Enfoque Simple.
15 Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
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en
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Impact on global equities
Probabilidad e impacto de los riesgos geopolíticos, marzo 2019
Las estimaciones pueden no pasar.
Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute, marzo de 2019. Notas: El gráfico muestra las estimaciones de BlackRock de la probabilidad relativa (eje vertical) de los riesgos en los próximos seis meses y su impacto potencial en el mercado sobre el índice ACWI de MSCI (eje horizontal).
Las estimaciones de impacto de mercado se basan en el análisis del grupo de análisis de riesgo y cuantitativo de BlackRock. Algunos de los escenarios que prevemos no tienen precedentes, o solo imperfectos. Los escenarios son solo para fines ilustrativos y no reflejan todos los
resultados posibles, ya que los riesgos geopolíticos están en constante evolución. Las líneas y puntos de colores muestran si el Comité Directivo de Riesgo Geopolítico de BlackRock ha aumentado (rojo) o disminuido (verde) la probabilidad relativa de cualquiera de los riesgos
de nuestra actualización anterior.
2
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-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BG
RI
Sc
ore
Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute, con datos de Thomson Reuters. Datos al 1 de marzo de 2019. Notas: Identificamos palabras específicas relacionadas con el riesgo geopolítico en general y con nuestros 10 riesgos principales. Luego utilizamos el análisis de texto para calcular la frecuencia de su aparición en las bases de datos de Thomson Reuters Broker Report y Dow Jones Global Newswire, así como en Twitter. Luego ajustamos si el lenguaje refleja un sentimiento positivo o negativo, y asignamos una puntuación. Una puntuación de cero representa el nivel promedio de BGRI a lo largo de su historia desde 2003 hasta ese momento. Una puntuación de uno significa que el nivel de BGRI es una desviación estándar por encima del promedio. Pesamos las lecturas recientes más fuertemente en el cálculo del promedio. Recientemente, mejoramos la metodología de nuestro BGRI global, relacionándolo con nuestros otros riesgos y actualizando las palabras clave. El gráfico puede parecer diferente de las actualizaciones anteriores como resultado.
17 Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator Europa
2
Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute, con datos de Thomson Reuters. Datos al 1 de marzo de 2019. Notas: identificamos palabras específicas relacionadas con este riesgo geopolítico y utilizamos el análisis de texto para calcular la frecuencia de su aparición en las bases de datos Thomson Reuters Broker Report y Dow Jones Global Newswire, así como en Twitter. Luego ajustamos si el lenguaje refleja un sentimiento positivo o negativo, y asignamos una puntuación. Una puntuación de cero representa el nivel promedio de BGRI a lo largo de su historia desde 2003 hasta ese momento. Una puntuación de uno significa que el nivel de BGRI es una desviación estándar por encima del promedio. Pesamos las lecturas recientes más fuertemente en el cálculo del promedio. El escenario de riesgo del BGRI es solo para fines ilustrativos y no refleja todos los resultados posibles, ya que los riesgos geopolíticos están en constante evolución.
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[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
[CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE] [CELLRANGE]
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
BG
RI
Sc
ore
18 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
2017 2018 2019
Re
al
GD
P g
row
th (
%)
Las estimaciones prospectivas pueden no suceder. Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute con datos de Bloomberg y Consensus Economics, marzo de 2019. Notas: El GPS BlackRock Growth muestra dónde se ubicará el pronóstico de 12 meses del consenso del PIB en un plazo de tres meses. Las líneas punteadas muestran la tasa de crecimiento
del PIB que implica nuestro indicador de condiciones financieras (FCI), en función de su relación histórica con nuestro GPS de crecimiento
El crecimiento se desacelera 3
19 Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Ou
tpu
t G
ap
(%
)
Comienzos de ciclo
2T 2019
Recesión EEUU Final de ciclo
Mitad del ciclo
Recesión
Momento del ciclo económico
20
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
54%
38%
19%
2021
2020
2019
Riesgo de recesión en EEUU
No hay garantía de que cualquier pronóstico realizado se cumpla.
Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute, con datos de Thomson Reuters, diciembre de 2018. Notas: El gráfico muestra la probabilidad estimada de una recesión en los EE. UU. Para fines de 2019, 2020 y 2021. La estimación se realiza a través de una serie
de regresiones de cuartiles que estiman la probabilidad de que el crecimiento sea inferior o superior a ciertos umbrales. Sólo para fines ilustrativos.
21
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
Expansion Slowdown Contraction Recovery
Sh
arp
e r
ati
o (
%)
Value Momentum Quality Min vol
El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los resultados actuales o futuros. No es posible invertir directamente en un índice.
Fuente: BlackRock Investment Institute con datos de Bloomberg, diciembre de 2018. Notas: Las barras muestran el índice de Sharpe de los factores de estilo de capital de mercado desarrollados durante las diferentes etapas del ciclo económico. Desglosamos las cuatro etapas del ciclo en función de los cambios en una amplia gama de indicadores económicos de alta frecuencia. Luego observamos el exceso de rendimiento dividido por el riesgo de MSCI
World Value, MSCI World Momentum, MSCI World Quality y MSCI World Minimum Volatility durante estas diferentes etapas.
Factores de estilo, 2000 - 2018
22 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Equities
EEUU
EM
Japón
Europa
Fixed income
Gob. EEUU
Crédito Europa y EEUU
EMD
Gob. Europa
Fondos BlackRock 2019
24 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Renta Fija Europea BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
Multiactivo BGF Global Allocation Fund
Renta Fija Europea BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
26 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Formado por
14 Pax
Gestionan
€55.000millones
Énfasis en
Valor Relativo
Y apoyado por toda la plataforma de BlackRock
de activos bajo gestión
Para la generación de Alfa
Renta Fija Europea de BlackRock
La clave del éxito: combinación de estrategias
Estrategias tradicionales
Estrategias de valor relativo
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 27
Ejemplo: Valor relativo entre países España vs Italia
28 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
2,5%
Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17
Sp
rea
d (b
ps
) Y
ield
(%
)
Spread (RHS) Spain Italy
Italy Spain Scores better
1. Market dynamics and supply pressure X X Italy
2. Politics X X Spain
3. Fiscal position & fiscal reform progress X X Italy
4. Short-term growth outlook X X Spain
5. Medium-term growth outlook X X Spain
Exports and external rebalancing X X Spain
Competitiveness & reform progress X X Spain
Unemployment & deleveraging X X Even
Banking sector X X Spain
6. Sensitivity to external flows X X Italy
7. Deflationary risk X X Even
8. Govt Debt position (level & trend) X X Spain
Análisis fundamental
10 años Español vs. 10 años Italia spread (bps)
Fuente: BlackRock, Bloomberg a febrero 2017
Ejemplo: Valor relativo entre bonos soberanos vs corporativos
29 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
0,0%
0,5%
1,0%
1,5%
2,0%
feb-16 mar-16 abr-16 may-16 jun-16 jul-16 ago-16 sep-16 oct-16 nov-16 dic-16 ene-17 feb-17
Yie
ld t
o m
atu
rity
Enagas 2025 Bankia Covered Bond 2025 Spain 2025 Telefonica 2023
TIR Corporativas vs. 10 años España
Fuente: BlackRock, Bloomberg a febrero 2017
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
31 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
Objetivo: Obtener rentabilidades por encima del BBG Barc Euro Aggregate 1-3 Years
Volatilidad histórica: <1%
Duración: 1 a +3 años
Índice de referencia: Barclays Euro-Agg 500+ 1-3 Year Index
Calificación media: A+
Patrimonio: €11.279 millones
Gestores del fondo: Michael Krautzberger & Christopher Allen
Lanzamiento: 4 enero 1999
ISIN (A2 EUR): LU0093503810
TIRs de los activos subyacentes
Fuente: BlackRock a 28 Febrero 2019.
Benchmark
Yield -0.05
Rating A+
Positive
Negative
Positive yielding assets Negative yielding assets
Las cifras mostradas se relacionan con el rendimiento pasado. El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de resultados actuales o futuros y no debe ser el único factor de consideración al seleccionar un producto o estrategia.
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 32
Barclays Euro-Aggregate 500+ 1-3 Years Index
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
Fund
Yield 0.38
Rating A+
Positive Negative
Positive yielding assets Negative yielding assets
¿Por qué el BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund?
33 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
-4,5
-4,0
-3,5
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond A2 EUR Carmignac Sécurité A EUR Acc EAA Fund EUR Diversified Bond - Short TermCompetidor
Drawdowns, 2011 - 2019
Rentabilidad: BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
34 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
0,31
-0,73
0,43 0,83
1,84
0,20
-0,05
0,03 0,45
1,46
-1
0
1
2
3
3 Month* 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Share Class Inception(11/2009)
To
tal
Re
turn
(%
)
BGF Euro Short Duration Fund (Net)** Benchmark: BBG Barc Euro Aggregate 1-3 Years, 500 MM
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund (I2 share class, EUR, net) 2.82% 1.19% 0.99% 0.73% -1.09%
0,0
0,1
0,1
0,2
0,2
0,3
0,3
0,4
0,4
0,5
0,0 0,2 0,4 0,6 0,8 1,0 1,2 1,4 1,6
BGF Euro Short Duration Bond A2 EUR Carmignac Sécurité A EUR Acc EAA Fund EUR Diversified Bond - Short TermCompetidor
Posicionamiento: BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
Source: BlackRock. As at 28 February 2019. Fund benchmark is the Barclays Euro Aggregate 1-3yr Index.
Fund Characteristics
Fund Bench
Duration (effective) years 1.49 1.93
Yield % 0.38 -0.05
OAS bps 63 48
Spread Duration 2.22 1.74
Average Rating A+ A+
Tracking Error (ex-ante) bps 47 -
Fund Size €11,279 m -
-1,0
-0,8
-0,6
-0,4
-0,2
0,0
0,2
1,0
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2,0
2,2
feb-1
8
ma
r-18
abr-
18
ma
y-1
8
jun-1
8
jul-18
ago-1
8
sep
-18
oct-
18
nov-1
8
dic
-18
ene-1
9
feb-1
9
Active (RHS) Fund Benchmark
17,8%
16,3%
11,9%
10,2%
9,1%
3,1%
3,0%
3,0%
1,8%
1,7%
1,6%
1,4%
1,2%
1,1%
1,1%
15,7%
20,7%
20,4%
15,2%
3,1%
10,2%
0,6%
2,7%
1,0%
1,3%
0,2%
4,8%
0,9%
1,2%
1,0%
0,2%
16,6%
0% 10% 20% 30%
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Spain
Denmark
United States
Ireland
Sweden
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Switzerland
Portugal
Canada
New Zealand
Other
Portfolio (%) Benchmark (%)
-0,63
0,15
-0,13
0,04
-0,03
0,10
0,00
0,10
0,04
0,01
-0,06
0,01
0,01
0,01
0,04
-0,11
-1,0 -0,5 0,0 0,5
Germany
France
Italy
United Kingdom
Spain
Denmark
United States
Ireland
Sweden
Czech Republic
Netherlands
Switzerland
Portugal
Canada
New Zealand
Other
Active Duration (yrs)
Top 15 Country Breakdown
Active Duration (years)
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 35
Posicionamiento: BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
Source: BlackRock. As at 28 February 2019. Fund benchmark is the Barclays Euro Aggregate 1-3yr Index.
Maturity Breakdown - NAV % Curve positioning - Duration (years)
Rating Breakdown - NAV %
Maturity Fund Bench
1-3 62.7% 99.8%
3-5 23.4% 0.2%
5-10 8.3% 0.0%
10-20 2.6% 0.0%
20+ 3.0% 0.0%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
Rating Fund Bench
AAA 32.0% 30.8%
AA 21.9% 27.1%
A 21.7% 19.4%
BBB 20.4% 22.6%
BB 0.8% 0.0%
Below BB 0.5% 0.0%
Other (inc. cash) 2.7% 0.1%
Total 100.0% 100.0%
-1
0
1
2
2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
Fund Benchmark
Sector Breakdown - NAV %
38,8%
12,9%
9,7%
1,4%
14,3%
6,2%
11,2%
5,4%
51,2%
17,6%
9,2%
1,2%
8,7%
0,1%
11,9%
0,0%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Government
GovernmentRelated
Industrials
Utility
Financials
Securitized
Covered Bonds
Other (inc.derivatives)
Fund (%) Benchmark (%)
0,36
-0,01
0,04
0,01
0,23
0,24
0,09
-0,48
-0,6 -0,4 -0,2 0,0 0,2 0,4
Government
GovernmentRelated
Industrials
Utility
Financials
Securitized
Covered Bonds
Other (inc.derivatives)
Active Spread Duration
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 36
Investment involves risks. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount they invest. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. The funds mentioned in this document may not be registered with your local regulatory body for offering and distributing in your own jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to be aware of, or to obtain all relevant regulatory approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registration under, and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction in connection with the offering and distributing of the funds. An investment in the funds mentioned in the document may not be suitable for everyone. If you have any doubts, you should seek independent legal advice. No part of this document may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of BlackRock.
Risk Warnings: BGF Euro Short Duration Bond Fund
Exchange Rate Risk - Overseas investment will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates.
Credit risk – government bonds - Fixed income securities issued by governments can be affected by the perceived stability of the country concerned and proposed or actual credit rating downgrades.
Credit risk – corporate bonds - The Fund invests in fixed interest securities issued by companies. There is a risk of default where the issuing company may not pay income or repay capital to the Fund when due.
Liquidity Risk - The Fund’s investments may have low liquidity which often causes the value of these investments to be less predictable. In extreme cases, the Fund may not be able to realise the investment at the latest market price or at a price considered fair.
Interest Rate Risk - The fund invests in fixed interest securities such as corporate or government bonds which pay a fixed or variable rate of interest (also known as the ‘coupon’) and behave similarly to a loan. These securities are therefore exposed to changes in interest rates which will affect the value of any securities held.
Structured Credit Products - The fund(s) may invest in structured credit products such as asset backed securities (‘ABS’) which pool together mortgages and other debts into single or multiple series credit products which are then passed on to investors, normally in return for interest payments based on the cash flows from the underlying assets. These securities have similar characteristics to corporate bonds but carry greater risk as the details of the underlying loans is unknown, although loans with similar terms are typically packaged together. The stability of returns from ABS are not only dependent on changes in interest-rates but also changes in the repayments of the underlying loans as a result of changes in economic conditions or the circumstances of the holder of the loan. These securities can therefore be more sensitive to economic events, may be subject to severe price movements and can be more difficult and/or more expensive to sell in difficult markets.
Important Information - Risks
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 37
BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
39 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
Objetivo: EONIA + 2-3% (anual neto)
Volatilidad histórica: Entre 1% y 2%
Duración: -3 a +3 años (rango típico -1 a 2 años)
Exposición: mínimo 60% exposición renta fija europea
Calificación media: Grado de inversión
Patrimonio: €7.570 millones
Gestores del fondo: Michael Krautzberger & Johan Sjogren
Lanzamiento: 30 septiembre 2009
ISIN (A2 EUR): LU0438336264
¿Por qué BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund?
Flexibilidad gracias a la gestión activa de la duración
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Oct-
09
Jan
-10
Ap
r-10
Jul-
10
Oct-
10
Jan
-11
Ap
r-11
Jul-
11
Oct-
11
Jan
-12
Ap
r-12
Jul-
12
Oct-
12
Jan
-13
Ap
r-13
Jul-
13
Oct-
13
Jan
-14
Ap
r-14
Jul-
14
Oct-
14
Jan
-15
Ap
r-15
Jul-
15
Oct-
15
Jan
-16
Ap
r-16
Jul-
16
Oct-
16
Jan
-17
Ap
r-17
Jul-
17
Oct-
17
Jan
-18
Ap
r-18
Jul-
18
Oct-
18
Jan
-19
Ab
so
lute
sc
ale
, Ye
ars
0.0
Ex
clu
din
g ra
te in
se
ns
itive
e
xp
os
ure
s, Y
ea
rs
0.0
Las cifras que se muestran se relacionan con el rendimiento pasado. El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los
resultados actuales o futuros y no debe ser el único factor de consideración al seleccionar un producto o estrategia.
Fuente: BlackRock. A 28 Febrero 2019.
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 40
¿Por qué BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund?
41 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Investment BSF Fixed Income Strategies A2 EUR
BSF Fixed Income Strategies A2 EUR 1,00
Euro Government 0,07
Euro Aggregate 0,11
Euro Financials 0,48
Euro Industrials 0,26
Global Treasury -0,26
Global Corp 0,18
Global HY 0,15
… que protegen ante las caídas
0,0% 0,2% 0,5% 0,9% 1,1%
0,1% 0,6%
-0,5%
0,1% 0,4%
-1,8% -1,7% -1,8%
-2,9% -2,6% -2,0% -1,9% -1,8% -2,1%
-1,8%
-4,0%
-2,0%
0,0%
2,0%
Dec-09 Oct-10 Dec-10 Jun-12 Jan-13 May-13 Dec-13 Jun-15 Oct-16 Jan-18
Pe
rce
nta
ge
Va
lue
C
ha
ng
e
BSF Fixed Income Strategies (net of fees) Bund Return
Month ending
Bajas correlaciones…
Las cifras que se muestran se relacionan con el rendimiento pasado. El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los
resultados actuales o futuros y no debe ser el único factor de consideración al seleccionar un producto o estrategia.
Fuente: BlackRock. A 28 Febrero 2019.
Posicionamiento: BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
% NAV Breakdown ex. Derivatives (Top 15 countries)
Fund Characteristics Duration Positioning (years) Rating Breakdown - NAV %
Source: BlackRock. As at 28 February 2019.
Duration (effective) years 0.42
Yield % 1.19
OAS bps 72
Spread Duration 2.96
Average Rating A
Tracking Error (ex-ante) bps 147
Fund Size €7,555 m
0,24
1,02
-2,73
1,88
-3,5
-2,5
-1,5
-0,5
0,5
1,5
2,5
2yr 5yr 10yr 30yr
AAA 25.2%
AA 25.0%
A 15.0%
BBB 24.6%
BB 3.0%
Below BB 1.9%
Other 5.3%
0%
4%
8%
12%
16%
20%
Unite
dK
ing
do
m
Fra
nce
Italy
Ge
rma
ny
Unite
d S
tate
s
Sp
ain
Den
ma
rk
Jap
an
Po
rtug
al
Sw
ed
en
Neth
erl
an
ds
Cypru
s
Czech
Rep
ub
lic
Be
lgiu
m
Arg
en
tina
Government Government Related Corporate Securitized
FIH0119E-697281-43/84 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 42
Posicionamiento: BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
Spread Duration Breakdown (Top 15 countries)
Source: BlackRock. As at 28 February 2019.
Duration Breakdown (Top 15 countries)
-0,38
1,33
0,10
-2,38
0,40 0,13 0,18
-0,20
0,05 0,17 0,08 0,14 0,04 0,23
0,00
-3,0
-2,5
-2,0
-1,5
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
0,92
1,36
0,13 0,40
-0,19
0,17 0,23
-0,11
0,07 0,17 0,08 0,14 0,00
0,24 0,06
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
United K
ingdom
Fra
nce
Italy
Germ
any
United S
tate
s
Sp
ain
Denm
ark
Jap
an
Po
rtuga
l
Sw
eden
Neth
erla
nds
Cyp
rus
Cze
ch R
epublic
Be
lgiu
m
Arg
entin
a
Government Government-Related Corporate Securitized Derivatives
Sector Allocation - NAV %
35,6%
11,8% 11,3%
2,6%
11,3% 11,7%
7,3% 8,4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Sector Allocation - Spread Duration
2,83
0,70 0,73 0,18 0,52 0,40 0,45
-2,85 -4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Govern
ment
Govern
ment R
ela
ted
Industr
ials
Utilit
y
Fin
ancia
ls
Se
curitized
Covere
d B
onds
Oth
er
(inc.
derivatives)
FIH0119E-697281-44/84 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 43
Rentabilidad: BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
44 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Active Return Analysis 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception
(Gross) Active Return -0.57 2.15 2.39 3.15
Tracking Error 2.10 1.55 1.61 1.86
Information Ratio -0.27 1.38 1.49 1.70
Morningstar Peer Group Ranking (quartile) 3 2 2 -
0,83
-0,93
1,80 2,17
3,22
0,52
-2,16
0,54 0,88
1,88
-0,09 -0,35 -0,34 -0,22
0,07
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
3 Month* 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year Since Inception(30/09/2009)
BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund (Gross) BSF Fixed Income Stategies Fund (Net)** Eonia
Las cifras mostradas se relacionan con el rendimiento pasado. El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los resultados actuales o futuros y no debe ser el único factor de consideración al seleccionar un producto o estrategia.
Fuente: BlackRock. * Los datos de 12 meses o menos no están anualizados. ** Los retornos netos se muestran para la clase compartida A2 EUR (ISIN: LU0438336264). El rendimiento se muestra en EUR en base al precio del VL con reinversión de los ingresos. El retorno de su inversión puede aumentar o disminuir como resultado de las fluctuaciones de la moneda si su inversión se realiza en una moneda diferente a la utilizada en el cálculo de rendimiento anterior. Los rendimientos del índice de rendimiento no reflejan ninguna tarifa de administración, costos de transacción o gastos Los índices no están administrados y no se puede invertir directamente en un índice
Investment involves risks. Past Performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of your investment and the income from it will vary and your initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed. Investors may not get back the amount they invest. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to go up and down. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Tax treatment depends on the individual circumstances of each client and may be subject to change in the future. The funds mentioned in this document may not be registered with your local regulatory body for offering and distributing in your own jurisdiction. It is your responsibility to be aware of, or to obtain all relevant regulatory approvals, licenses, verifications and/or registration under, and to observe all applicable laws and regulations of any relevant jurisdiction in connection with the offering and distributing of the funds. An investment in the funds mentioned in the document may not be suitable for everyone. If you have any doubts, you should seek independent legal advice. No part of this document may be reproduced or distributed in any manner without the prior written permission of BlackRock.
Important Information - Risks
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 45
Risk Warnings – Risk Warning – BSF Fixed Income Strategies Fund
Exchange Rate Risk - Overseas investment will be affected by movements in currency exchange rates. Interest Rate Risk - The fund invests in fixed interest securities such as corporate or government bonds which pay a fixed or variable rate of interest (also known as the ‘coupon’) and behave similarly to a loan. These securities are therefore exposed to changes in interest rates which will affect the value of any securities held.
High Yield Bonds - The Fund invests in high yielding bonds. Companies which issue higher yield bonds typically have an increased risk of defaulting on repayments. In the event of default, the value of your investment may reduce. Economic conditions and interest rate levels may also impact significantly the values of high yield bonds.
Liquidity Risk - The Fund’s investments may have low liquidity which often causes the value of these investments to be less predictable. In extreme cases, the Fund may not be able to realise the investment at the latest market price or at a price considered fair.
Credit risk – government bonds - Fixed income securities issued by governments can be affected by the perceived stability of the country concerned and proposed or actual credit rating downgrades.
Credit risk – corporate bonds - The Fund invests in fixed interest securities issued by companies. There is a risk of default where the issuing company may not pay income or repay capital to the Fund when due.
Structured Credit Products - The fund(s) may invest in structured credit products such as asset backed securities (‘ABS’) which pool together mortgages and other debts into single or multiple series credit products which are then passed on to investors, normally in return for interest payments based on the cash flows from the underlying assets. These securities have similar characteristics to corporate bonds but carry greater risk as the details of the underlying loans is unknown, although loans with similar terms are typically packaged together. The stability of returns from ABS are not only dependent on changes in interest-rates but also changes in the repayments of the underlying loans as a result of changes in economic conditions or the circumstances of the holder of the loan. These securities can therefore be more sensitive to economic events, may be subject to severe price movements and can be more difficult and/or more expensive to sell in difficult markets.
Complex Derivative Techniques (Absolute return) - The strategies utilised by the Fund involve the use of derivatives to facilitate certain investment management techniques including the establishment of both 'long' and 'synthetic short' positions and creation of market leverage for the purposes of increasing the economic exposure of a Fund beyond the value of its net assets. The use of derivatives in this manner may have the effect of increasing the overall risk profile of the Funds. Investors in this fund should understand that the Fund is not guaranteed to produce a positive return and as an absolute return product, performance may not move in line with general stock market trends as both positive and negative share movements affect the overall value of the fund. The Manager employs a risk management process to oversee and manage derivative exposure within the Fund.
Important Information - Risks
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 46
BGF Global Allocation Fund
48 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Rentabilidad competitiva…
… con 1/3 menos de volatilidad
10,1%
15,4%
0%
6%
12%
18%
BGF Global AllocationFund (A)
Global Stocks
An
n. s
td. d
ev
iatio
n s
inc
e in
ce
ptio
n
6,2% 6,4%
0%
3%
6%
9%
BGF GlobalAllocation Fund (A)
Global Stocks
An
nu
ali
ze
d t
ota
l re
turn
sin
ce
in
ce
pti
on
49 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
BGF Global Allocation Fund cumple su promesa
BGF Global Allocation Fund (A) vs. indice de renta variable global desde
lanzamiento
Capturando
65% de las
subidas
Capturando
54% de las
bajadas
50 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
22 años de track record
Flexibilidad en la búsquedad
Mitiga la volatilidad
Equipo de
+50 pax Profesionales
+700 valores
+40 países
+30 divisas
1/3 menos de vol vs índices de renta variable
Características
Mixto agresivo: 60% / 40%
51 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Ma
r-9
7
Ma
r-9
8
Ma
r-9
9
Ma
r-0
0
Ma
r-0
1
Apr-
02
Ma
r-0
3
Ma
r-0
4
Ma
r-0
5
Ma
r-0
6
Ma
r-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Ma
r-1
2
Ma
r-1
3
Ma
r-1
4
Ma
r-1
5
Ma
r-1
6
Ma
r-1
7
Ma
r-1
8
Equities Fixed Income Commodity-Related* Cash Equivalents
El fondo estuvo infraponderado en renta variable en comparación con su índice de referencia durante 90s
El periodo con mayor sobreponderación en renta variable fue en H2’01
Las posiciones en liquidez se han mantenido de forma regular desde el lanzamiento del fondo
La referencia a clases de activos específicas en esta comunicación es solo para fines ilustrativos y no constituye una oferta o invitación a invertir en ninguna de las clases de activos mencionadas anteriormente. Las estrategias de asignación de activos no aseguran ganancias y no protegen contra pérdidas.
A 31 de diciembre de 2018. Fuente: BlackRock. Sujeto a cambios. Antes de 2015, la exposición del fondo se basaba en el valor de mercado y se ajustaba por el valor económico de los futuros y swaps. A partir de 2015, la exposición del fondo se basa en el valor económico de los valores y se ajusta para futuros, opciones y swaps (excepto con respecto a valores de renta fija) y bonos convertibles. Relacionados con los productos básicos se compone de ETFs de metales preciosos. Los indicadores de sobreponderación / infraponderación se refieren al índice de referencia del fondo, que consiste en un 36% del índice S&P 500, un 24% en el índice FTSE World (ex EE. UU.), Un 24% ICE BofA / ML. Índice mundial de bonos del gobierno de USD..
Fondo diversificado para obtener rentabilidad en cualquier situación de mercado
52 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Technology Bubble2000 - 2002
Global MarketRecovery
2003 - 2007
Global Credit Crisis2008 - 2009
Global Easing Cycle2010 - 31/12/18
Combined Period2000 - 31/12/18
BGF Global Allocation Fund (A) -2,17% 111,10% -5,75% 34,71% 162,19%
Reference Benchmark* -16,88% 79,67% -6,87% 70,41% 136,98%
Global Stocks -39,56% 133,92% -20,59% 95,40% 119,07%
Global Bonds 20,19% 39,03% 13,71% 13,45% 115,65%
Morningstar Peer Group -14,22% 49,16% -13,12% 27,46% 41,68%
-50%
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
Los datos de rentabilidades citados representan los resultados obtenidos en el pasado y no garantizan resultados futuros .
A 31/12/2019. Fuente: BlackRock, Lipper, Morningstar. Fecha de lanzamiento: 3 de Enero de 1997 ‘A’ shares. Fundamento: NAV precios, con dividendos brutos reinvertidos, neto de gastos. ISIN: LU0072462426.
* su índice de referencia interno consiste en 36% S&P 500, 24% FTSE World (ex US), 24% BofA ML Current 5-Year US Treasury Index, 16% Citigroup Non-USD World Gov’t Bond Index.
† Los períodos de menos de 1 año no están anualizados
Posicionamiento: BGF Global Allocation Fund
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Renta Variable : 57% (vs. 60% índice)
Sobreponderado:
• Regiones: Japón, Asia emergente
• Sectores: Servicios de comunicación, Energía, Sanidad, Real Estate, Materiales, Consumo básico
Infraponderado:
• Regiones: EEUU, Europa
• Sectores: Financiero, Tecnología de la información, Industriales, Consumo discrecional, Elecetrivas
Renta fija: 29% (vs. 40% índice)
Sobreponderado:
• Bonos corporativos, deuda emergente
Underweight:
• Ex-US bonos gubernamentales de mercados desarrollados
Materias primas: 3%
• Gold ETFs
Liquidez: 11%
Desglose por divisa (como un % del NAV)
31%
26%
26%
3% 3%
11% U.S. Stocks
Non-U.S. Stocks
U.S. Bonds
Non-U.S. Bonds
Commodity-Related
Cash Equivalents
68%
8%
4% 2%
10%
6% 0%
2% U.S. Dollar
Euro
British PoundSterlingOther Europe
Japanese Yen
Other Asia
As of 31 January 2019. Source: BlackRock. Subject to change. The fund is actively managed and its characteristics will vary. Overweight/underweight indicators are relative to fund’s reference benchmark, which consists of 36% S&P 500 Index, 24% FTSE World (ex-U.S.) Index, 24% ICE BofA/ML Current 5-Year U.S. Treasury Index, 16% FTSE Non-USD World Government Bond Index. * % of net assets represents the fund’s exposure based on the economic value of securities and is adjusted for futures, options and swaps (except with respect for fixed income securities) and convertible bonds. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
53
Desglose por activo (como % del NAV)
Cartera del BGF Global Allocation Fund
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
As of 31 January 2019. Source: BlackRock. Subject to change. The fund is actively managed and its characteristics will vary. Geographic exposure relates principally to the domicile of the issuers of the securities held in the product, added together and then expressed as a percentage of the product’s total holdings. However, in some instances it can reflect the country where the issuer of the securities carries out much of their business. Holdings are provided for informational purposes only and should not be deemed as recommendations to buy or sell securities or sectors mentioned. The specific companies identified and described above do not represent all of the companies purchased or sold, and no assumptions should be made that the companies identified and discussed were or will be profitable. * % of net assets represents the fund’s exposure based on the economic value of securities and is adjusted for futures, options and swaps (except with respect for fixed income securities) and convertible bonds. † Reference benchmark consists of 36% S&P 500 Index, 24% FTSE World (ex-U.S.) Index, 24% ICE BofA/ML Current 5-Year U.S. Treasury Index, 16% FTSE Non-USD World Government Bond Index. Numbers may not sum to 100% due to rounding.
54
Number of Issuers 598 Alphabet 1.5%
Equity Price/Earnings (FY1) 15.6x Johnson & Johnson 1.1%
Equity Wtd. Avg. Market Cap $146.8bn Apple 1.1%
Portfolio Effective Duration 1.0 years Comcast 1.1%
Exxon 1.0%
Anthem 1.0%
Fixed Income Effective Duration 3.5 years Amazon 0.9%
Fixed Income + Cash Effective Duration 2.5 years Williams 0.9%
Microsoft 0.9%
Nestle 0.9%
TOTAL 10.5%
Note: Portfolio effective duration assumes 0 duration for
equity and commodity-related holdings.
Equity regions (% of net assets*) Equity sectors (% of net assets*) Fixed income regions (% of net assets*)
Characteristics Top 10 equity holdings (% of net assets*) Fixed income credit quality (% of net assets*)
2.0%
1.9%
3.0%
9.1%
6.7%
7.6%
10.0%3.6%
5.1%
6.1%
5.1%
2.0%
2.0%
3.1%
5.5%
4.8%
8.7%
6.0%
6.4%
5.1%
4.7%
8.8%
Utilities
Real Estate
Materials
Information Technology
Industrials
Healthcare
Financials
Energy
Consumer Staples
Consumer Discretionary
Communication Services
4.1%
4.9%
2.1%
12.2%
1.7%
35.1%
5.4%
8.1%
1.6%
9.1%
1.6%
31.5%
Emerging Markets
Japan
Developed Asia ex-Japan
Developed Europe
Canada
U.S.
0.5%
4.9%
0.5%
9.6%
0.4%
24.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.5%
1.4%
0.2%
Emerging Markets
Japan
Developed Asia ex-Japan
Developed Europe
Canada
U.S.
Fund Reference Benchmark†
22%
2%
2%1%
1%
AAA AA
A BBB
BB B
< B NR
Capital at risk. All financial investments involve an element of risk. Therefore, the value of the investment and the income from it will vary and the initial investment amount cannot be guaranteed.
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of current or future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.
You may not get back the amount originally invested. Changes in the rates of exchange between currencies may cause the value of investments to diminish or increase. Fluctuation may be particularly marked in the case of a higher volatility fund and the value of an investment may fall suddenly and substantially. Levels and basis of taxation may change from time to time.
Risks
PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL 55
GA_A
MASM0219E-741413-29/34
BGF Global Allocation Fund specific risks
56 PARA USO EXLCUSIVO DE ATL CAPITAL
Credit risk: Changes to interest rates and/or issuer defaults will have a significant impact on the performance of fixed income securities. Potential or actual credit rating downgrades may increase the level of risk.
The issuer of a financial asset held within the Fund may not pay income or repay capital to the Fund when due.
Equity Risk: The value of equities and equity-related securities can be affected by daily stock market movements. Other influential factors include political, economic news, company earnings and significant corporate events.
Derivative Exposure: Derivatives are highly sensitive to changes in the value of the asset on which they are based and can increase the size of losses and gains, resulting in greater fluctuations in the value of the Fund. The impact to the Fund can be greater where derivatives are used in an extensive or complex way.
Counterparty Risk: The insolvency of any institutions providing services such as safekeeping of assets or acting as counterparty to derivatives or other instruments, may expose the Fund to financial loss.
Liquidity Risk: Lower liquidity means there are insufficient buyers or sellers to allow the Fund to sell or buy investments readily.
Emerging Market Risk: Emerging markets are generally more sensitive to economic and political conditions than developed markets. Other factors include greater 'Liquidity Risk', restrictions on investment or transfer of assets and failed/delayed delivery of securities or payments to the Fund.
Anexo
58
Para uso exlcusivo de ATL Capital
5
10
15
20
25
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
P/
E r
ati
o
DM
EM
El rendimiento pasado no es un indicador confiable de los resultados actuales o futuros. No es posible invertir directamente en un índice.
Fuentes: BlackRock Investment Institute, con datos de Thomson Reuters, marzo de 2019. Notas: Las líneas muestran los ratios de precios a futuro de 12 meses para el Índice Mundial MSCI (que representa a los mercados desarrollados o DM) y el Índice de
Mercados Emergentes de MSCI ( representando mercados emergentes, o EM)
Valoraciones de mercados desarrollados y emergentes, 1990 - 2019
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