critical water information for floods to droughts
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Critical Water Informationfor Floods to Droughts
Hydrology Program Priorities
National HIC Meeting
January 25, 2006
Responsive to Natural Disasters Forecasts for Hazard Risk Management
Valuable Data for Local and State GovernmentsDetailed Information for Zip Code Level Analysis
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Protecting Life, Livelihood,and Way of Life
River channelDevelopedShrubs/GrassAgricultureWetlandsForecast PointForecast Basin
River Services(600 miles per forecast point)
Water Resource Services(6 square mile forecast basins)
River Conditions Soil Conditions
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Program Team Composition
• River Forecast Centers
• National Operational Hydrologic Remote Sensing Center
• Office of Climate, Water, and Weather Services, Hydrologic Services Division
• Office of Hydrologic Development
Program Customers
• Federal Water Agencies
• Commercial Waterway Navigation
• Emergency and Water Resource Managers
• General Public
Councils associated with the Hydrology Program
• Research, Platform Allocation, Observing Systems, CIO,
Education, International Affairs
NOAA Hydrology Program
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Office of Hydrologic Development Gary Carter, Director
Hydrology LaboratoryChief
Planning, Programming, and CoordinationLinda Ingram, NOAA Program Liaison
Donna Page, NWS Program LiaisonKen Pavelle, Matrix Support Focal Point
3 FTE
Resource Staff5 FTE
Hydrologic Science and Modeling BranchGeoff Bonnin, Chief
13.5 FTE
Hydrologic Software Engineering BranchJon Roe, Chief
20.5 FTE
Senior ScientistPedro Restrepo
Office of Hydrologic Development Organization Chart
45 Full Time Equivalent (FTE) Positions
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AlgorithmServices
DataServices
ControlServices
DisplayServices
SecurityServices
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
Federal agenciesState, regional, and local cooperatorsUniversitiesPrivate sectorInternational organizations
River Stage & Flow
Surface Water Storage
Water Supply Availability
Flood Potential
Water Quality
Soil Moisture
RunoffSnow Water Equivalent
Precipitation
Evapotranspiration
Near-Surface
Deep
Point Information (Stations, Grid Cells)
Vector Information (River Segments)
Hydrology XML ConsortiumEvolving to become “pulse” of CHPS
http://www.weather.gov/oh/hydroxc/index.html
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Collaborative ResearchAreas of Emphasis
Observations
Analysis
Model Forecasts
Post-processed Model Data
Forecaster
User (public, industry…)
ForecastSystem
Data Assimilation
CommunityModels
CommunityObservations
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Long-term Vision: Integrated Water Science
Coupled ocean/atmospheric/ land-surface model (global)
Coupled atmospheric/land-surface model (regional)
Interface with Estuary Models, Water Quality Models
WEATHER & CLIMATE FOCUS
WATER FOCUS
Observing SystemsCommon Hydrologic
Land-Surface Modeling System
(Uncoupled)Research
Labs
Land Surface Hydrology & Water Resources Modeling
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R&D Algorithms
Prototype Operational Algorithms
“Test” Environment
Collaborative R&D Partners (NOAA Labs,
Universities)
Operational Implementation
Validation & Verification
New Science
Users & Customers
(RFCs, WFOs, Other Agencies)
Feedback
Hydrology Testbed: RTO Process
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• Enable Full Utilization of Existing Observing Systems
– Development of data processing and assimilation capabilities
• Science-to-Operations
– Test new stream flow prediction models and forecasting techniques for time scales of hours to months
Long-term Vision:Hydrology Testbed
Airborne
Satellite
Radar
In-Situ
physiographic
New physiographic
data
AHPS Infrastructure
New observing systems
NOAA
NASA USGS
USDA
DODEPA
DOE
Water Resources Data Assimilation and
CHPS
OTHERS
Experimental River Forecast Center
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From Weather and Climate Predictions to Water Management
Weather and Climate
Predictions:
Temperature
Precipitation
Wind, …
Weather and Climate
Predictions:
Temperature
Precipitation
Wind, …
Hydrology and Water Resources Modeling, Data
Assimilation
Water Management
Water Management
Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction
Water PredictionWater Prediction
Decision Support Tools
Drought Mitigation
Flood Management
Flash Flood Prediction
Water Supply
Transportation
Emergency Management
Agriculture
Ecosystem Stewardship
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Hydrologic Modeling
Meteorological inputs
Physical, Institutional,& Legal Features
Topography• Vegetation, land use• Lakes, glaciers• Soil properties• Ground water• River channel shape• River depth/flow• Dams, locks, levees• Reservoir operations• Irrigation, drains• Water rights•
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High Resolution Soil Moisture Forecasts – near term activities
Test prototype version of soil moisture products from CONUS runs of HL-RMS and compare with other models
Conduct economic impact analyses and case studies to identify the potential benefits of soil moisture forecasts
UZTWC UZFWC
LZ
TW
C
LZ
FS
C
LZ
FP
C
UZTWC UZFWC
LZ
TW
C
LZ
FS
C
LZ
FP
C
SMC1
SMC3
SMC4
SMC5
SMC2
Sacramento Model Storages
Sacramento Model Storages
Physically-basedSoil Layers andSoil Moisture
Modified Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model
In each grid and in each time step, transform conceptual soil water content to physically-based water content
CONUS Physically-based Soil Moisture Fields at 4km Grid Scale
gridded precipitation
CONUS-scale 4km gridded soil moisture and temperature prototype products
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Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) – next steps
NWSRFS Data Service – deliver, via AWIPS Operational Build 7.2, first increment of distributed hydrologic modeling capability integrated into NWSRFS using CHPS Data Services components proven in River, Reservoir, & Snow (RRS) pre-processor proof-of-concept.
Hydrology XML Consortium – build schema-compliant XML read/write adapters, develop SHEF-XML translators, develop common dictionary, move Consortium beyond just OHD.
Future NWSRFS Enhancements –
Reservoir model: provide RFCs with a CHPS service to run the USACE Hydrologic Engineering Center’s Reservoir System Simulation program (HEC-ResSim) as an integral part of NWS operationsAdditional Hydraulic Models: identify the potential applications and feasibility for operational use of the USACE River Analysis System (HEC-RAS)Rapid Prototype Opportunity: examine WL/Delft Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) infrastructure to expedite migration to CHPS
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Debris Flow Pilot Project
• Interagency team chartered in December 2004
• Team activities
– Two day meeting (Jan. 31 - Feb. 1, 2005)
– Focus areas:
• Customer identification/pilot project area
• Models and modifications
• Communications protocols/data acquisition mechanisms
• Requirements for budget, personnel, operation and maintenance costs, etc.
– Plan delivered in July 2005
– Prototype for Southern California during Winter 2005-6
Long-term Vision: Debris Flow Watches and Warnings
• Land use/cover
• Terrain
• Soil type
• Precipitation Analyses
• Precipitation and Soil Moisture Forecasts
• Debris Flow Analyses
• Service Delivery
NOAA/USGS
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IT/SoftwareManager
AHPSWater Resources
Science Manager
NIDIS“Development Test”
Environment
Core Projectand NASA grant
Stage1: Hydrology Testbed
Cluster Computing
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Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed
• Development System for Water Resource Models
– Structured software compatible with the Community Hydrologic Prediction System
– Open platform for collaborative R&D and RTO, including objective and transparent testing
– One-stop storehouse for new and emerging capabilities and experimental products
– Laboratory for prototyping the next-generation hydrologic forecasting system
and its computational and communications infrastructure
• “Operational” Environment
– National domain
• Full domain modeled, focus on RFC test basins
– Develop/test new science, demonstrate pathway to operations, conduct retrospective analyses
– Requires modest cluster computing resources
– Staff
• Science Coordinator
• Software Development/Architecture Specialist
• Synergism with Other NOAA Testbeds
– Climate Testbed
– Hydromet Testbed
– Hydrologic Ensemble Prediction Experiment (HEPEX) Testbeds
• Oversight - HOSIP/OSIP
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Stage 1: Hydrology Testbed
HOSIP HOSIP
HMT
Cluster Computing
Climate
Testbed
AHPS Water Resources
OHDInternal Research:Core Project, other
GAPP, Other
OHD Collaborative Research,
incl. HEPEX
(DMIP) (NLDAS)
Hydrology Testbed
River Forecast Centers
HEPEX
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
NOAA Hydrology Program Strategic PlanFunding sources: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OGP, NASA
HOSIP HOSIP
HMT
Cluster Computing
Climate
Testbed
AHPS Water Resources
OHDInternal Research:Core Project, other
GAPP, Other
OHD Collaborative Research,
incl. HEPEX
(DMIP) (NLDAS)
Hydrology Testbed
River Forecast Centers
HEPEX
Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS)
NOAA Hydrology Program Strategic PlanFunding sources: NOAA/NWS, NOAA/OGP, NASA
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Hydrology Program Objectives
Outcomes
• Improved Ecosystem Management
Contribute mercury concentration predictions for the Gulf of Mexico Mercury
Contamination Project (collaborating NOAA Programs: ER, EO, FM, AQ, EM)
• Increased Economic Benefits using Water Forecasts and Information
Contribute gridded forecasts of soil moisture and temperature for the National
Integrated Drought Information System (STI, LFW, EM, RDS, COA, CPP, CE)
• Reduced Losses due to Floods
Contribute more accurate flood forecasts and warnings via the Advanced
Hydrologic Prediction Service (LFW, CEO, STI)
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Hydrology Program Assessment
Program Priorities
• Extend Hydrologic Forecasting Service to Include:- Community Hydrologic
Prediction System (CHPS)- Data Assimilation
• Meet Customer Needs, e.g., National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS)
• Provide Infrastructure for Water Quality Forecasts
Water Resource Services• Watershed and soil condition forecasts
for hazard resilient communities
– Run-off or River flow
– Soil moisture
– Soil temperature
– Precipitation
– Snowpack
– Surface storage
– Ground water
– Water temperature
– Water quality
• Short- to long-term water risk forecasts support hazard resistant businesses (including agriculture) and local ecosystem stewardship
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AHPS ProgramPlan
Water ResourcesVision
Science andTechnology
Vision
Future Environment
HOSIP/OSIP
Hydrology Program: Enhancement Process
Current Operational Environment
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Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS)
HOSIP/OSIP
Flash Flood
River Flow(short to long term)
Water Resources Services*
Water QualityForecasts**
*Resources in FY06 Budget**Potential capability currently being considered
Graphical Dissemination
National Integrated Drought Information
System**
AHPS ReviewCommittee
Theme Teams
Hydrologists in ChargeDOH Science Steering Team
NOAA ProgramManagers
Requirement Drivers
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