dagstuhl – dels gc paul valckenaers k.u.leuven (b)

DAGSTUHL – DELS GC

Paul Valckenaers

K.U.Leuven (B)

Grand Challenge I

Pervasive design for integrate-ability

Integrate-ability

• When an integration conflict occurs, what are the root causes?

• When interoperability results in poor performance, what is the underlying mechanism?

• Video: 2 conflicting systems

• Which was “designed for integrate-ability”?

Design for integration

• Avoid making choices that later might cause integration conflicts

• Late choices, low commitment– Autonomous,autonomic, multi-functional…– Complicated, complex, expensive, difficult

• Only safe choices– Lighthouses, maybe pilots, no captains– Maps not route descriptions– Intelligent Beings rather than Intelligent Agents

Design for integration

• Avoid inertia build-up for choices that later might cause integration conflicts

• Lightweight implementations– Simulations, CA-X, re-growing

• Unsafe design choices/decisions– Do not provide cover for later design decisions– Every choice must be either ‘unavoidable’

or safe on its own– Coupling to unsafe choices must be a

late & low commitment

Grand Challenge II

Operating System for

Transport & Logistics and

Networked Production

System of systems - LES

a b c

a b c

a b c

Order holonsProduct holons Resource holons

Short-term forecasting thru swarms

Short-term forecasting thru swarms

Short-term forecasting thru swarms

Short-term forecasting thru swarms

Short-term forecasting thru swarms

Remarks

• Not your mainstream agent technology

• Hierarchical but “attractors” not master/slave

• Systems of systems

• Social control mechanisms – Stick to commitments (nervousness ctrl)– Trust (highly repetitive fine-grained game)

Grand Challenge III

Systems of Systems

accounting for

Bounded/finite/limited rationality

Complex-adaptive systems theory

Seamless MES, LES & SCM

• Virtual enterprise– Equipment

productivity– Semi

autonomous factories

Bedrijf 3

Bedrijf 1

VirtualEnterprize

Bedrijf 2

Bedrijf 4

Bedrijf 5

Furnace 1

Furnace 2

Furnace 3

Coordination

Systems of Systems

• Simon: SoS is only option!– Watchmakers parable

• Holonic: subsystems are stable systems that are successfully recruted by a SoS

• Autocatalytic sets (e.g. re-usable models)– Origin of life

• Combine complex-adaptive (e.g. swarms) and complicated (lighthouses, maps)

Valuable Object for humans

Economic resources

What about models and their data instead of this rose?

Information Valuable Object for humans

• R. Lewin, Complexity: Life at the Edge of Chaos, University of Chicago Press, Chicago, IL (1999).

• Waldrop, M., “Complexity, the Emerging Science at the Edge of Order and Chaos”, VIKING, London, 1992.

• In another case, a group of West Point graduates were asked to manage the playtime of a kindergarten as a final year assignment.

• The cruel thing is that they were given time to prepare. They planned; they rationally identified objectives; they determined backup and response plans. They then tried to “order” children’s play based on rational design principles, and, in consequence, achieved chaos.

• They then observed what teachers do. • Experienced teachers allow a degree of freedom at the start of

the session, then intervene to stabilize desirable patterns and destabilize undesirable ones; and, when they are very clever, they seed the space so that the patterns they want are more likely to emerge.

• OUT-OF-CONTROL performs better ?