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Daily Market Outlook 29 May 2015
1
Please see disclaimer on last page
Uncertainties abound
Expect the SET to adjust down today, hampered by uncertainties on the local and global fronts. Locally, conflicting outlooks on exports and recent weakness in the MPI, all hurt equities outlook. On the global front, rising concerns over a Greece default and weakness in the economies of key trading partners US and Japan add additional downward pressure on the local bourse.
Pick of the day: IVL (Bt26.50; NR; 15TP Bloomberg
Bt26.28; Settrade Bt28.18)
Indorama Ventures PCL’s earnings prospects for this year and
next are very bright, propelled by continued expansion in price
spreads of the company’s main products, PET and polyester
fibers, and sales volume increases. PET price spreads have
been on the rise after the prices of Paraxylene, the major raw
material for producing PET, have fallen due to recent
oversupply in the region and a decline in naphtha prices. This
bolsters our view that IVL’s earnings have bottomed out and
are in an upward cycle. Sales volume should also increase
significantly following the company’s acquisitions in 2014 and
early this year. In addition, there is a strong possibility that the
company would revert from inventory losses last year to
inventory gains this year as a result of a rising trend in product
prices. According to Bloomberg earnings consensus, IVL’s
earnings this year are expected to surge 148% from the low
base in 2014, decelerating to a still robust 27% growth in 2016.
A buy signal has occurred in both IVL’s daily and weekly
charts. If today the share price manages to close above Bt26,
it means IVL’s price pattern will show a buy signal in its
monthly chart, firmly assuring the share is on an uptrend with
an immediate target at Bt32.75. (Resistance: 27.00, 27.50,
28.75; Support: 26.00, 25.50, 24.40)
Local issues
Conflicting views on exports. The Thai National
Shippers’ Council (TNSC) yesterday said overall exports
would at best see flat growth this year after declines of
0.41% in 2014 and 0.32% in 2013, citing the lack of
innovative products and the low level of oil prices. Deputy
PM MR Pridityathorn however, said the baht is expected to
retreat further against the dollar and its positive effect on
exports should be apparent in 3Q15, saying that exporters
typically took orders up to four months in advance and the
impact of the baht’s pullback would be felt by then.
(Bangkok Post)
Major Indices Close Chg %Chg
SET 1,493.61 -7.2 -0.5
SET50 985.15 -6.2 -0.6
SET P/E (x) 20.3
SET P/BV (x) 2.0
SET Div. Yield (%) 2.9
Dow Jones 18,126.12 -36.9 -0.2
S&P 500 2,120.79 -2.7 -0.1
NASDAQ 5,097.98 -8.6 -0.2
UK 7,040.92 +7.6 +0.1
Germany 11,677.57 -93.6 -0.8
France 5,137.83 -44.7 -0.9
Japan 20,551.46 +78.9 +0.4
South Korea 2,110.89 +3.4 +0.2
Hong Kong 27,454.31 -626.9 -2.2
China 4,620.27 -321.4 -6.5
Taiwan 9,712.84 +19.3 +0.2
Singapore 3,417.77 -7.2 -0.2
Malaysia 1,755.56 +0.5 +0.0
Indonesia 5,237.40 -16.0 -0.3
Philippines 7,505.03 -93.7 -1.2
Trading Summary Buy Sell Net
Institution 3,646 2,489 1,157
Proprietary 3,211 4,398 -1,187
Foreign 8,453 9,178 -726
Individuals 16,200 15,443 756
Total Trading Value 31,509 Btmn
Most Active Value Value Close %Chg
PTT 1,703 350.00 -1.4
TASCO 1,349 18.00 +4.0
KBANK 1,156 196.00 -0.8
TRUE 1,063 11.30 -1.7
CPALL 977 45.75 -
Commodity Futures Close Chg %Chg
US Crude 57.68 +0.2 +0.3
Brent Crude 62.58 +0.5 +0.8
Gold 1,188.10 +2.5 +0.2
FX Rates Close Chg %Chg
USD/THB 33.76 +0.0 +0.0
EUR/USD 1.09 +0.0 +0.4
USD/JPY 123.94 +0.3 +0.2
USD/CNY 6.20 -0.0 -0.0
Source: Bisnews, Bloomberg
Technical picks (support & resistance)
MC (S: 13.30, R: 18.80); IFEC (S: 10.90, R: 12.10);
PTTGC (S: 63.00, R: 67.50); SET (S: 1,470, R: 1,518)
Thailand Research Department
Mr. Warut Siwasariyanon (No.17923) Tel: 02 680 5041
Mr. Krit Suwanpibul (No.17968) Tel: 02 680 5090
Mr. Narudon Rusme, CFA (No.29737) Tel: 02 680 5056
Mr. Napat Siworapongpun (No.49234) Tel: 02 680 5094
Daily Market Outlook 29 May 2015
2
Please see disclaimer on last page
The Fiscal Policy Office expects the economy to expand by 3.7% this
year provided no less than 70% of the government's investment budget is
disbursed and exports rise by 0.2%. In the first 7 months of fiscal year 2015,
the government disbursed about 58.4% of the total expenditure budget of
Bt2.575tn. Of the total investment budget of Bt449bn, 36.2% was disbursed.
(The Nation)
More investments in SMEs. The Small and Medium Enterprise
Development Bank of Thailand will invest Bt500mn into SMEs under the
SMEs Private Equity Trust Fund to be set up. The details will be submitted
over 2Q15 to the investment committee chaired by the Finance Ministry.
Additionally the bank believes it can achieve its new-loan target of Bt40bn for
this year. (The Nation)
MPI drops over April. The Manufacturing Production Index (MPI) plunged
5.3% MoM from March to April, as some manufacturers took more time off for
Songkran than last year. The automobile industry’s domestic output declined,
but outbound output increased. (The Nation)
DTAC (Bt87.75; 2015 TP Bt99.75) increased its 2015 capex to Bt20bn from
Bt15bn for network expansion. It expects mobile numbers to grow 133% in
2020 from now. DTAC wants NBTC to clarify the road map for overall
spectrum auctions including 700, 850 and 2600 spectrum auction for a better
long-term plan. In addition, it is appointing five “mini CEOs” for Thailand’s five
regions to manage business on a zoning basis. (Post Today, Bangkok Post)
SPALI plans to launch seven condominium projects worth a combined
Bt13bn in Greater Bangkok from Jun-Dec. With expected full-year economic
growth of 3%, the property market to expand by 5-10%. From Jan to mid-May,
the company recorded Bt5.5bn in presales, 5% below target due to sluggish
sales upcountry, but it still expects the full-year presales target of Bt23bn will
be met. (Bangkok Post)
Global issues Mixed messages about Greece’s debt deal: Greece's government said it
aims to reach an agreement with lenders by Sunday. However, a euro zone
official said Greece will not be able to get the money under its current bailout
plan if it does not agree to the outline of a cash-for-reforms deal by the end of
the week. (Reuters)
USA
Wall Street shares edged down on Thursday on an unexpected rise in
weekly jobless claims, mixed messages about Greece's debt talks together
with a sharp drop in Chinese shares after brokers tightened margin rules.
Investors also were cautious ahead of today's reading on US GDP. (Reuters)
US jobless claims unexpectedly rose last week, but remained at levels
consistent with a strengthening labor market. Initial claims for state
unemployment benefits rose 7,000 to a seasonally adjusted 282,000 for the
week last week. Economists had forecast claims slipping to 270,000 last
week. (Reuters)
US previously-owned homes sales rose for a fourth straight month in
April to a 9-year high, buoying the outlook for the housing market and the
overall economy. The National Association of Realtors’ Pending Home Sales
Index increased 3.4% to 112.4 in April. Economists had forecast pending
home sales rising only 0.9% last month. (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 29 May 2015
3
Please see disclaimer on last page
Europe European shares retreated on Thursday, as lingering uncertainty over
Greece's debt problems held back the region's stock markets. (Reuters)
Asia China's stock markets plunged on Thursday, with indexes dropping over
6% in record high turnover as investors rushed to sell after more brokers
tightened margin trading requirements for clients and the central bank drained
money market liquidity. At least three Chinese brokerages tightened margin
requirements. (Reuters)
China's stock market has surged over 140% over the past 12 months
despite a flagging economy, as retail investors piled into world's best
performing market. The outstanding value of margin finance hitting a record
Rmb2.0tn on Tuesday. (Reuters)
Japan's core CPI barely rose in April, casting doubt on the central bank's
view of a steady economic recovery helping accelerate inflation toward its 2%
target. The 0.3% rise in the core CPI, which includes oil products but excludes
fresh food prices, was roughly in line with a median market forecast for a 0.2%
increase. (Reuters)
Japan’s household spending unexpectedly fell in April. Household
spending fell 1.3% YoY in April, confounding expectations of a 3.1% increase.
(Reuters)
Commodities
Falling inventories boost oil. Following two consecutive days of
downwards price adjustment, oil adjusted up on the back of the weakening
greenback, and US crude oil stock figures adjusting down for the fourth
consecutive week. NYMEX moved up 17 cents or 0.3% to close at
US$57.68/barrel while Brent moved up 52 cents or almost 1.0% to
US$62.58/barrel. (Reuters)
Gold propped up by uncertainties. Gold spot moved up 30 cents to
US$1,187.70/ounce on Thursday, supported by the weakening dollar and
falling global equities. (Reuters)
Daily Market Outlook 29 May 2015
4
Please see disclaimer on last page
Date Regions
26-May-15 US
US
US
27-May-15 US
28-May-15 EU
EU
29-May-15 US
Economic Indicators
Durable Goods Orders (Apr)
Markit PMI (May)
Economic Sentiment Indicator (May)
Consumer Confidence (May)
Gross Domestic Product (Q1)
Housing Price Index (Mar) & New Home Sales (Apr)
Consumer Confidence (May)
Mon Tue Fri
1
4 5 8
XD
AGE
AKR
AQUA
BTNC
DTAC
GYT
ICC
ILINK
KC
NCL
NOBLE
PHOL
SMIT
SPI
TCJ
TPA
XD
AI
BCH
BEC
BRR
CBG
CHO
CI
DEMCO
DSGT
ESTAR
GL
ICHI
KAMART
KCM
LRH
MATI
NC
OCC
PF
PG
PL
PR
PREB
S & J
SABINA
SALEE
SITHAI
SOLAR
SORKON
SSSC
SWC
SYNTEC
TAKUNI
TF
THIP
TNL
TPCORP
TWFP
TWS
VNT
XD
AP
CK
CRANE
ENGY
FE
MATCH
MOONG
NBC
NINE
NMG
RICHY
11 12 15
XD
BJCHI
BLA
CEN
CSR
PCA
STA
TNPC
TPAC
TWZ
XD
CSS
TC
TRC
VIBHA
WHART
XD
IFEC
XD
BWG
SCBLIF
18 19 22
XD
BKKCP
QHPF
TIF1
UNIPF
UOB8TF
25 26 29
XD
SPF
TSC
XD
FUTUREPF
KAMART
TFUND
TLOGIS
XD
AOT
XD
BKI
CPTGF
TCIF
THIF
TREIT
TRIF
TTLPF
27
Thu
28
21
14
7
20
13
6
Wed
May-15
5
Please see disclaimer on last page
CG Rating
Corporate Governance Report disclaimer
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors
Association (“IOD”) regarding corporate governance is made pursuant
to the policy of the Office of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company listed
on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative
Investment disclosed to the public and able to be accessed by a
general public investor. The result, therefore, is from the perspective of
a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate
Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies. As a result, the survey
result may be changed after that date, Asia wealth Securities Company
Limited does not conform nor certify the accuracy of such survey result.
Corporate Governance Report of Thai Listed Companies (CGR). CG Rating by the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD) in 2014.
Score Range Number of Logo Description
90 – 100
80 – 89
70 – 79
60 – 69
50 – 59
Below 50
No logo given
Excellent
Very Good
Good
Satisfactory
Pass
N/A
BAFS EGCO IRPC KTB PTTEP SAT SIM TOPBCP GRAMMY IVL MINT PTTGC SC SPALIBTS HANA KBANK PSL SAMART SCB TISCOCPN INTUCH KKP PTT SAMTEL SE-ED TMB
AAV BIGC DELTA HMPRO NBC PJW SAMCO SVI TOGACAP BKI DRT ICC NCH PM SCC TCAP TRCADVANC BLA DTAC KCE NINE PPS SINGER TF TRUEANAN BMCL DTC KSL NKI PR SIS THAI TSTEAOT BROOK EASTW LANNA NMG PRANDA SITHAI THANI TSTHASIMAR CENTEL EE LH NSI PS SNC THCOM TTAASK CFRESH ERW LHBANK OCC PT SNP TIP TTWASP CIMBT GBX LOXLEY OFM QH SPI TIPCO TVOBANPU CK GC LPN PAP RATCH SSF TK UACBAY CNT GFPT MACO PE ROBINS SSI TKT VGIBBL CPF GUNKUL MC PG RS SSSC TNITY VNTBECL CSL HEMRAJ MCOT PHOL S&J STA TNL WACOAL
2S BEAUTY CSS IHL MFEC PPM SKR TBSP TSC ZMICOAF BEC DCC INET MJD PPP SMG TEAM TSCAH BFIT DEMCO IRC MODERN PREB SMK TFD TTCLAHC BH DNA IRCP MONO PRG SMPC TFI TUFAIT BJC EA ITD MOONG PRIN SMT THANA TVDAJ BJCHI ESSO KBS MPG PTG SOLAR THIP TWFPAKP BOL FE KGI MTI QLT SPC THREL UMIAKR BTNC FORTH KKC NC QTC SPCG TIC UPAMANAH BWG FPI KTC NTV RCL SPPT TICON UPFAMARIN CCET GENCO L&E NUSA SABINA SST TIW UPOICAMATA CGD GL LRH NWR SALEE STANLY TKS UTAP CGS GLOBAL LST NYT SCBLIF STEC TLUXE UVAPCO CHOW GLOW MAJOR OGC SCCC STPI TMI UWCAPCS CI GOLD MAKRO OISHI SCG SUC TMT VIHAQUA CKP HOTPOT MATCH PACE SEAFCO SWC TNDT WAVEARIP CM HTC MBK PATO SEAOIL SYMC TPC WHAAS CMR HTECH MBKET PB SFP SYNEX TPCORP WINASIA CSC HYDRO MEGA PDI SIAM SYNTEC TRT WINNERAYUD CSP IFS MFC PICO SIRI TASCO TRU YUASA
Source: Thai Institute of Directors (IOD)
6
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Contact
Branch Address Phone Fax
Head Office 540 Floor 7,14,17 , Mercury Tower, Ploenchit Road, Lumphini,
Pathumwan Bangkok 10330
02-680-5000 02-680-5111
Silom 191 Silom Complex Building,21st Floor Room 2,3-1 Silom Rd.,
Silom, Bangrak, Bangkok, 10500 Thailand
02-630-3500 02-630-3530-1
Asok 159 Sermmitr Tower, 17th FL. Room No.1703, Sukhumvit 21
Road, Klong Toey Nua, Wattana, Bangkok 10110
02-261-1314-21 02-261-1328
Pinklao
7/3 Central Plaza Pinklao Office Building Tower B, 16th Flr.,
Room No.1605-1606 Baromrajachonnanee Road, Arunamarin,
Bangkoknoi, Bangkok 10700
02-884-7333 02-884-7357,
02-884-7367
Chaengwattana
99/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd
Flr., Room 2204 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2300 02-8353006
Chaengwattana 2
9/99 Moo 2 Central Plaza Chaengwattana Office Tower, 22nd Flr.,
Room 2203 Chaengwattana Road, Bang Talad, Pakkred,
Nonthaburi 11120
02-119-2388 02-119-2399
Mega Bangna 39 Moo6 Megabangna, 1st Flr., Room 1632/7 Bangna-Trad
Road, Bangkaew Bangplee, Samutprakarn 10540
02-106-7345 02-105-2070
Rayong 356/18 Sukhumvit Road, Nuen-Phra Sub District, Muang
District, Rayong Province 21000
038-808200 038-807200
Khonkaen 26/9 Srijanmai Road, Tamboonnaimuang, Khon Khaen
40000
043-334-700 043-334-799
Chonburi 55/22 Moo 1, Samed Sub District, Muang District, Chonburi
20000
038-053-858 038-784-090
Chaseongsao 233-233/2 Moo2 1st Flr., Sukprayoon Road, Na Meung Sub-
District, Meung District, Chachoengsao 24000
038-981-587 038-981-591
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