data that persuades: annotated - from ses sf 2012

San Francisco| August 13–17

Data that persuades How to prove your point

Ian Lurie CEO, Portent

This is the ‘narrated’ version of my presentation from SES San Francisco, 2012. You’ll see explanations in little black boxes like this one.

ME: @PORTENTINT

If you have questions after you read this, shoot ‘em to me on Twitter. I’m happy to answer.

portent.co/sesdata

Yes, like this, no ‘m’.

Also, I’ve put links to books, examples, etc. on a bit.ly link bundle at this link.

This presentation is certified 100% bullet-free.

I’m not a fan of bullets. They give slides a bad name. So I’ve banned them from this presentation.

@portentint

Alfalfa Timothy Hay

Chewy Treats

Pigloos

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I came up with the idea for this presentation after receiving a graph that looked like this:

Why the @#$! would you do this?

@portentint

Alfalfa Timothy Hay

Chewy Treats

Pigloos

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I couldn’t figure out why people would do this to innocent, helpless data. This graph is awful.

@portentint

Alfalfa Timothy Hay

Chewy Treats

Pigloos

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Even worse, it was created by a marketing ‘professional’ to give to her boss (I changed the products to protect the innocent)

@portentint

Alfalfa Timothy Hay

Chewy Treats

Pigloos

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Would you take this seriously? Can you even figure out what the story is behind this data?

@portentint

Alfalfa Timothy Hay

Chewy Treats

Pigloos

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Then I found out her boss asked for it this way to show to his boss. Grrrrrrr…

WHY I CARE AND YOU SHOULD, TOO

Of course, this isn’t really our problem, right? I mean, we’re SEOs and PPC’ers and such. Our job isn’t data presentation – it’s giving good advice about rankings and ads and stuff.

WHY I CARE AND YOU SHOULD, TOO

WRONG. SO WRONG. We face a few huge problems we can only fix if we know how to present data in a compelling way.

DATA = FOOD

The problem right now is that we approach data the same way we approach food.

Data good!!!

If a little data’s good…

More data better!!!

…more’s better! So we pig out. We create these awful spreadsheets and charts, export dozens of pages from analytics software and let our clients and bosses stuff themselves. But they don’t get any useful info from it.

Whoa, hey now, let's not get

personal.

So our clients with end up fatter than Grizzlies, but with no idea what to do next. The data is totally overwhelming and actionably worthless.

We need to serve our clients little, well-prepared servings of super-dense, useful information. Not 32 Big Macs.

I’ll lay off the food metaphor now.

YOUR CAREER ISN’T ABOUT BEING

Because here’s the thing: Being right doesn’t get you paid. It doesn’t get you promoted. It doesn’t get you business. Being right is how you make sure you don’t screw your clients/bosses with bad information.

YOUR CAREER IS ABOUT BEING UNDERSTOOD

If you want the fact that you’re right to matter – if you want to really succeed in your career as a marketer – you need to be understood. In our business, that comes down to data, and good presentation of that data.

IF YOU WANT PERSUASIVE

You have to be persuasive. But that doesn’t mean the prettiest graph, or the loudest argument, or the best skills as a debater.

BE THE PERSON THEY ACTUALLY UNDERSTAND

You want to be persuasive? Be the one person that your client can actually understand. That’s how you grow your career, and become awesome.

HERE’S HOW YOU DO IT 3 STRATEGIC TIPS

First off, three basic rules you have to know.

LIZARD. APE. HUMAN.

Before you prepare your report, repeat the phrase “Lizard, Ape, Human”. It’ll help you remember how people consume information, and keep your report focused.

VISCERAL BEHAVIORAL REFLECTIVE

From The Design of Everyday Things, Donald Norman

According to Donald Norman, we respond to information on three levels: Visceral (fight or flight), Behavioral (like or hate), and Reflective (meaning).

it's true. I'm a visceral guy.

When you drop a report on my desk (I am a boss, after all), my first reaction is visceral. It comes from my lizard brain, and it’s a very simple yes/no response. A ‘yes’ means I’ll look long enough to form an opinion. A ‘no’ means I’m probably going to do everything I can to ignore the data you so lovingly prepared for me. Choice of color, layout, report clutter and such can affect this response.

not as smart as humans? Whatever.

Then I’ll look a little more closely. This is closer to the ape-driven part of my brain. It’s an emotional response, but not totally driven by a look at the data. A well-designed bit of data graphics can make a huge difference here, because the ape-brain isn’t quite as smart as the human-brain, but it’s very nuanced. At this point, I’m looking for something to ponder.

does this mean I'm an apex

predator? Sweet!

Now, finally, I hit the reflective response. The visceral and emotional response shape the reflective one. If my first reaction was “ew” and my second was “I can’t believe I paid for this,” my reflective response is going to be “Who can I hire to replace you?” If my visceral reaction was “huh!” and my behavioral was “I had no idea!” my reflective response will be “I need to dig deeper! Get in here!”

WHAT. WHY. WHAT NOW?

Getting the right visceral response is about information design. I’ll talk about that in minute. Getting the right behavioral and reflective response is about answering the right questions: What story does the data tell? Why did that story happen? What should we as a company do next, based on the what and why?

PPC SEO E-‐mail Begging May-‐12 $669.00 $643.00 $1,005.00 $767.00 Jun-‐12 $850.00 $1,500.00 $647.00 $1,074.00 Jul-‐12 $2,500.00 $2,340.00 $619.00 $687.00

WHAT: SEO & PPC are on an upswing.

Understand that data isn’t a bunch of numbers. It’s a story – a narrative – of how your marketing, product and company are working. It’s up to you to dig out that story.

New landers launched July 1.

SEO content strategy ongoing as of May 1.

It’s not enough to just say “SEO and PPC are doing well!” You need to explain why. Otherwise, you’re no better than a Google Analytics report, and I don’t need to pay you.

1.10% 0.75%

1.00% 1.00%

Jan-‐12 Feb-‐12 Mar-‐12 Apr-‐12 May-‐12 Jun-‐12 Jul-‐12

PPC Conversion rate

Landers go live June 1

What explains the change? Look at the data. Think this through, thoroughly, before you even try to create a report or presentation. Do the research.

Test more landers.

Continue SEO. There’s a lag.

Then, be ready with next steps. These examples are over-simplified, obviously. But you get the idea. Because any boss/client will ask what to do next.

WHAT. WHY. NEXT.

Don’t forget: Answer these three questions. Yes, this is a repeat slide. It’s that important.

ESTABLISH CONTEXT

@portentint

The last strategic tip: Don’t present data in a vacuum.

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SEO & PPC performance

While this chart tells me SEO and PPC are improving, it doesn’t tell me how they’re doing compared to my other channels. I read it and say ‘so what’?

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PPC SEO E-‐mail Begging

Sales by channel

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Ah HAH. Now I see the whole equation. SEO’s out-performing all other channels. This is data in context. It helps me make a smart decision.

Lizard. Ape. Human. What. Why. What next.

Provide context.

Three big strategic tips that’ll add depth to your reports. But you still have to get past that first, visceral assessment. And, you have to provide clarity when the reader looks more closely.

13 WAYS TO GIVE GREAT DATA

Time to get tactical. Here are a bunch of little tips that’ll help make your reports more consumable.

1 DON’T MAKE THEM READ

@portentint

Pretend your brain is a computer. Every individual ‘chunk’ of information you have to process is a task. More tasks = more work. More work = grumpy boss.

Tabular data like this forces me to perform at least 12, and as many as 19, individual tasks, just to get the story that PPC and SEO are moving up.

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SEO & PPC performance

A simple line chart requires at most 2 tasks. Phew. Much better. The moral? Don’t make me read. Reading was the last thing we learned to do. We’ve been looking for patterns, though, for hundreds of thousands of years. Our brains are better at it, and we can take in a pattern shown in an image in a few seconds. Visceral, ftw!

FOLLOW TUFTE’S LAWS

@portentint

Above all else, show the data. Maximize data-ink ratio. Erase non-data ink. Erase redundant data ink. Revise and edit.

From The Visual Display of Quantitative Data, by Edward Tufte

Next, a bunch of fantastic tips to follow, from the top data visualization guru on the planet, Edward Tufte. Read his books!

2 ABOVE ALL ELSE, SHOW THE DATA

@portentint

His best, first rule: Show the damned data!!!!

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Remember, my brain has to perform tasks. Every additional bit of junk on the page interferes with my ability to ‘see’ the data.

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By simply deleting the weird vegetable icons, you’ll get one step closer to just showing the data. Nice.

3 MAXIMIZE DATA-INK RATIO

@portentint

One way to show the data first is to maximize the ratio of data to ink.

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All the ink used to show the 3D effects are a total waste. They in no way help me understand this data. In fact, they may get in the way, since the blue ‘May’ bars are partly hidden.

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See how much better that is? I’m using fewer pixels for decoration, and more for data.

4 REMOVE NON-DATA INK

@portentint

Take another step by removing more non-data ink.

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For example, the gridlines in this graph aren’t really helping. I can tell you that, as your boss, I’m not going to trace across them. Remember the story – you’re trying to show a trend, and relative performance. The grid isn’t helping with that.

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Bye-bye, grid. Nice knowing you.

5 REMOVE REDUNDANT DATA INK

@portentint

Remove data ink (pixels, if you’re an onscreen person) that repeats the message, too. In this example: I don’t need to show the Y-axis values in $200 increments. Again, this is about trending. The small increments introduce a lot of redundant ink.

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This tells the data’s story just as well, but my visceral reaction is a lot better now. My fevered little brain doesn’t have to perform as many tasks.

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As a reminder, there is where we started.

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This is the end result. Much better, yes?

6 REVISE & EDIT

@portentint

Most important: Don’t treat your reports and data graphics as fragile models. You can tear them apart, revise them and generally tweak them to make ‘em more readable. Revise and edit!

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For example, I decided the grid was helpful after all, because it made it easier for folks to compare bars on the far-right of the chart. I didn’t want to add ink, so I added a white line across at the $600 increment. Revise and edit.

@portentint

FOLLOW TUFTE’S LAWS

Above all else, show the data. Maximize data-ink ratio. Erase non-data ink. Erase redundant data ink. Revise and edit.

There’s no way I can do Tufte justice in a few slides. Read his stuff. Follow his 5 laws. Join the data nerds. It’s nice here. They have cookies.*

@portentint

*Not crappy cookies, like chocolate chip cookies that turn out to be oatmeal raisin (shudder) or those nasty, chocolate-free sugar cookies. We’re talking cookies with honkin’ huge chocolate chunks in them so large they make your cheeks hurt. Data nerd-dom is a nice place.

7 USE SMALL MULTIPLES

@portentint

Small multiples help you break up complex datasets and compare them. Tufte and a bunch of other writers talk about them. I’m not sure who came up with the idea. It wasn’t me, though.

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Sales by month

E-‐mail

Begging Take this example. It’s a little confusing. Which line is which? I have to do a lot of work to interpret it.

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$-‐ $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00

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E-‐mail

$-‐ $200.00 $400.00 $600.00 $800.00

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Begging

Sales by channel

Small multiples means breaking those 4 series into a grid of matching graphs. Much easier to compare.

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E-‐mail

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Begging

Sales by channel

You can compress the y-axes if you want to, to emphasize change…

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E-‐mail

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Begging

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But I recommend using the same range on every graph. Here, I have each chart starting at $750, instead of 0, because it makes the changes more obvious. But it’s still apples-to-apples.

BSG despair-o-meter E

ty 9 9 9

1-‐5 6-‐10 11-‐15 16-‐20

Season 1

9 8 9 9

1-‐5 6-‐10 11-‐15 16-‐20

Season 2

10 9 9 7

1-‐5 6-‐10 11-‐15 16-‐20

Season 3

7 6 4 2

1-‐5 6-‐10 11-‐15 16-‐20

Season 4

A personal favorite: My Battlestar Galactica Despair-O-Meter compares episode quality season by season. Small multiples fight the Cylon menace.

8 USE NATURAL COLORS

@portentint

Anything you can do to tap our instinctive ability to respond to stimuli makes data more digestible. That includes using natural colors, instead of…

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…eye-gougingly bad colors.

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Ah. Much better, yes?

9 USE CONTRASTING NATURAL COLORS

@portentint

Yes, but still a little hard to read, because all the blues ran together. So, try to use contrasting natural colors.

http://portent.co/NHy5QD

From Tim Beard

Tim Beard has this great palette you can use. It’s a whole set of natural colors.

Sales by channel

This isn’t perfect, but it’s a lot easier to look at, and it’s easy to distinguish one series from another.

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10 SAY NO TO PIE CHARTS

@portentint

Pie charts suck. Seriously. I’ve never seen a pie chart that couldn’t be improved by using another type of chart.

Orders by channel How exactly am I supposed to see the difference between, say, 4% and 8%? Do they really look like they’re separated by a factor of 2? No. Pie charts tend to conceal distinctions.

Orders by channel

SEO PPC E-‐mail Display Direct

Turn the same thing into a bar chart, and suddenly it’s a lot easier to see the entire range of results.

11 USE CONSISTENT PROPORTIONS

@portentint

If you’re using small multiples, or even presenting several pages of charts, use the same proportions on all of them.

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E-‐mail

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Begging

Sales by channel

Here, using different proportions makes it look like the change over time for PPC and SEO is about the same as e-mail and begging. I won’t look at the numbers, first. I’ll look at the lines. Be sure they tell an accurate story.

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Begging

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See the difference?

12 GO 45 DEGREES

@portentint

Stephen Few talks about trending data in his book, Now You See It. A lot of people ask him what the best size/shape is for a line graph.

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His answer: Don’t worry about the size. Instead, set the proportions so the average slope is 45 degrees. That tends to be easiest to read.

13 SHOW TRENDS

@portentint

Remember, above all, show the data! That includes trends.

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It’s not easy to see this is an upward trend.

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Add a trendline. Now I can see the trend in a second.

DON’T BE THESE GUYS

There are the tactics. Now, a couple of examples of what can happen when you ignore the tactics and the strategy of great data visualization, and just crank out one crappy report after another.

No clear story. No what, when, what’s next. Huge amounts of non-data ink and just visual trash.

This is actually so bad that it looks equally informative backwards…

And even upside-down. If your report looks just as useful(less) upside-down, start again.

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Total Clicks Compared to Total Monthly Spending

Historical Average Clicks

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

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Conversions Compared to Total Monthly Spending

Spending Conversions

If I just pull out two graphs, I think there’s a story. The story of a very bored analyst, playing with shading filters in Excel.

Conversions

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Take 2 minutes to remove non-data ink, apply small multiples and such, and suddenly there’s a bit more information.

Conversions

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The data isn’t bad. The presentation was awful.

DON’T BE THESE GUYS

Sometimes, though, the data is bad, too. Take this last example.

Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2008 319 405 667 926 1,121 913 817 520 433 331 267 204

2009 239 780 992 1,073 889 862 722 567 199 133 86

2010 253 397 618 741 573 456 463 402 370 333 192 153

2011 217 322 511 640 931 793 603 526 390 357 250 262

2012 339 405 581

e Visitors

Monthly PPC visitors

This report is supposed to show my PPC campaign performance. But it only shows me clicks!!! I don’t care about clicks!!! I want to know what those clicks cost and earn. This is a 100% useless crap graphic.

AN OBLIGATION

I hope you find this helpful. My point, again: Your job is as much explainer as expert. Learn to find and tell the story in the data, and learn to do it well. It’ll put you head-and-shoulders above your competition.

AN OBLIGATION

And, to me, there’s an ethical obligation for us as experts. It’s our job to provide good, actionable advice. Not ‘good’ and ‘actionable’ from our own perspective, but from our clients’.

AN OBLIGATION

The businesses of the people you work for depend on that. Take it seriously. Plus: Cookies. We have them. Data nerds, unite.

@PORTENTINT IAN@PORTENT.COM

PORTENT.CO/SESDATA

Note: Excel was only tool used to create the charts & graphs in this presentation. You don’t need fancy stuff.

data that persuades: annotated - from ses sf 2012

alfalfa timothy

total monthly

contrasting

follow tuftes

small multiples

natural colors

visual display

chewy treats

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